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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:25 pm 
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KDdidit wrote:
All I know if I was in a World Series game 7 there's no one I'd rather have on the mound for my team than the guy Quintana is pitching against.

That's actually a good point to be made about Quintana . Would any Sox fan want him on the mound in any sort of game of significance and expect to win?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:27 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
I remember when we used to have this argument about Jeff Samardzija and how all those advanced stats told me how great he was but for run support and here is finally pitching for a good team and he all he can muster is 8-7 with a mid 4 ERA.


Samardzija wasn't giving up 2 runs or less in 60%+ of his starts. They're not the same pitcher. MANY of us knew Samardzija was overrated.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:36 pm 
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I guess I missed that because I was blinded by saying smardjiza was a fucking loser the last several years and was truly thankful he was off my team and hoping he gets hit by a piece of Skylab as he takes the mound next.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:43 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
I remember when we used to have this argument about Jeff Samardzija and how all those advanced stats told me how great he was but for run support and here is finally pitching for a good team and he all he can muster is 8-7 with a mid 4 ERA.





Anybody who thought that clown was anything other than a 5th starter doesn't know dick about baseball... Quintana is a legit #2 or 3.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:52 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
If you expect your team to provide six runs of "support" every game, you're barking up the wrong tree.


Except there are 12 qualified MLB starters right now that average 6 RS/9 or better, and 30 that average 5 or better. The White Sox as a team average below 4, and average just more than 3 runs per 9 when Quintana is on the hill.

The White Sox offense is in the bottom half of the MLB in AVG, bottom-3rd in OBP, and bottom-quartile in SLG. It is the offense that sucks when Quintana is pitching, not the opposing pitcher being really good. If it were indeed that Quintana is just "bested" by better pitchers every time out, we would expect to see the Sox as an above-average team shut down by a great starter. They are not, they are a well-below-average offensive team.
What are the numbers?

In games that Quintana pitches, how much does he lower their runs scored from their average and how much does the opposing pitcher lower the runs scored of the White Sox?

The whole argument here is that the Sox, who are a bad offense, are even worse with Quintana pitching for some strange reason. The likely answer is that the other pitcher is outperforming him by shutting down the offense more than expected.

Show us the math!


Image

"QOPP R/9" is "Quintana Opponents' Runs per 9 Innings", and "ROPP R/G" is "Real Opponents Runs per Game". The bottom in bold is an average of all teams (not including the inter-league split at the top), and as you can see, Quintana is able to limit opponent scoring to about 65% of their averages when extrapolated out to 9 innings. Without extrapolation, Quintana holds opponents to an average that is 47% of their regular marks.

The White Sox average 3.39 R/9 when Quintana is on the hill, and their average is 3.99 R/G. So, all told, the opposing pitchers are limiting White Sox output to 85% of their average.

The problem is that the Sox' offense is so bad, that even limiting it's run-scoring rate by 85% makes leaving the game after 5, 6, or 7 innings and change with a lead an even more daunting task if you give up even a single run. And that is why "Wins" is such an awful metric.
Interesting information. As JORR said, I think sample size may be an issues(especially with two shutouts against two of the best offenses he faced) but it looks like he does perform well against his opponent.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:37 pm 
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Putting this here for when people eventually trickle back to this thread to continue the argument:

Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Since he became a full-time starter, Quintana has limited opponent scoring to a rate of 3.64 runs per 9. In that same time frame, Quintana is 7th-worst among qualified starters with an average RS/9 of 3.81. Since 2012, the average AL R/G mark has been 4.37, and the Sox have averaged 4.04 R/G.

Quintana has held "the League" (because I'm not going through and calculating a R/G average for only Quintana's opponents in the last 5 years, the AL's 5-year average will get us close enough) to an average of 83% of their scoring, the Sox have been held to 94% of theirs when Quintana is on the hill.

When you remove the 2012 season, the differences become even more glaring. Quintana holds "the League" to 3.56 R/9, or 81% of their scoring, and the Sox average 3.89 R/G, or are held to 96% of their average scoring by Quintana's collective opponents.

Since 2013, Quintana is 28th in the MLB among all qualified starters in limiting run scoring rate (R/9), but is 82nd in W/L%. To say that has more to do with how he "competes" than with how poorly his offense has performed for multiple years is beyond silly.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:58 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Are Felix Doubront and Kyle Gibson better pitchers than Jose Quintana?



Doubront is a reliever who has pitched over 100 innings maybe once or twice. I barely know who Gibson is but I'm gonna say he has a losing record. You can do better if you want to go this route.

Both of those pitchers "outdueled" Jose Quintana and got wins while Quintana got the loss both times.

Quintana went 7 IP and 1 ER and 8 IP and 2 ER.

Answer the question - are Doubront and Gibson better pitchers?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:29 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Are Felix Doubront and Kyle Gibson better pitchers than Jose Quintana?



Doubront is a reliever who has pitched over 100 innings maybe once or twice. I barely know who Gibson is but I'm gonna say he has a losing record. You can do better if you want to go this route.

Both of those pitchers "outdueled" Jose Quintana and got wins while Quintana got the loss both times.

Quintana went 7 IP and 1 ER and 8 IP and 2 ER.

Answer the question - are Doubront and Gibson better pitchers?


He will say "on that day they were better competitors" only a few posts removed from saying this:

JORR wrote:
If your argument is so fucking strong, why are you always disingenuously hiding the ball with short samples?


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:41 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Are Felix Doubront and Kyle Gibson better pitchers than Jose Quintana?



Doubront is a reliever who has pitched over 100 innings maybe once or twice. I barely know who Gibson is but I'm gonna say he has a losing record. You can do better if you want to go this route.

Both of those pitchers "outdueled" Jose Quintana and got wins while Quintana got the loss both times.

Quintana went 7 IP and 1 ER and 8 IP and 2 ER.

Answer the question - are Doubront and Gibson better pitchers?


He will say "on that day they were better competitors" only a few posts removed from saying this:

JORR wrote:
If your argument is so fucking strong, why are you always disingenuously hiding the ball with short samples?



How would those statements conflict? Can't a worse pitcher pitch better on a day? Was Villanova better than Georgetown in one game in 1985? Or are you a bernstein who wants to declare someone better despite what actually occurred on the field of play?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:42 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
How would those statements conflict? Can't a worse pitcher pitch better on a day?

So with that being said, why can't it happen on 5 different days? Or 50 different days?

And go further...maybe there is a reason it is happening...a factor you haven't considered...maybe there is some sort of variable...can't put my finger on it...

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Last edited by IMU on Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:44 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
How would those statements conflict? Can't a worse pitcher pitch better on a day?

So with that being said, why can't it happen on 5 different days? Or 50 different days?



If it does, it does. Are you saying the guy IMU believes is better is better than the guy who actually performed better?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:46 pm 
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Any given sunday.

Over the course of any significant stretch, I know who is better.

How were you in chemistry, algebra or physics? You don't seem to get variables.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:47 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Over the course of any significant stretch, I know who is better.




You mean like Brett Jackson?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 4:04 pm 
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The one time I'm wrong about MLB in about 10 years on the board. Play it up more.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 4:16 pm 
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You have been wrong MANY times.


This is turning out to be worse than a David Robertson o
9th inning.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 4:32 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
You have been wrong MANY times.

Burden of proof.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 5:36 pm 
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viewtopic.php?f=32&t=100064

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 5:58 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=100064


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:06 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=100064

I'm a goddamn Nostradamus.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:23 pm 
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Fail.

Even Nostradamus knew that The Simpsons was for adults.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:36 pm 
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Counter-point:

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss ... psons+toys

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:48 pm 
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Continuing the 0fer...

http://m.ebay.com/sch/Collectible-Simps ... 144/i.html

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:49 pm 
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Sox +140 moneyline

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:58 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:

1) 11,000 items versus 4,000 items.
2) "Collectibles" is an open ended term that could include items for children. Toys are less ambiguous. For instance, Bart Simpsons stickers came up under collectibles. Are you a big sticker guy?
3) Just because something is made and placed on Amazon doesn't mean it sells well. How many people are buying this: https://www.amazon.com/Dynomighty-Mens- ... llectibles .. furthermore how many adults.

The oh-fer must be the no hitter I'm throwing.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 7:18 pm 
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I didnt post an Amazon link.

Hit the showers and just the loss, kiddo. There is no sejse in continuing to get your brains beaten in.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:43 pm 
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Woo hoo Fulmer brisk walked himself thru that inning. He's starting to figure this relieving thing out.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:57 pm 
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Anderson has fast fast hands but he has to learn to keep the tag on. If he did that he's out.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:06 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
Woo hoo Fulmer brisk walked himself thru that inning. He's starting to figure this relieving thing out.


or not. maybe he could try throwing harder than 91mph

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:12 pm 
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He's a 1 inning reliever.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:28 pm 
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He's Matt Albers.

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