Its consistant, but consistantly wrong.
Would you wager on 180 innings over/under?
Something board, not money or anything.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

There's a Sale at Penney's!

You do realize that "pitcher may get injured" is one of the dumbest sports thoughts around? Pitchers just get injured a lot. Every team will likely have a pitcher or two get injured at some point in the season. There are currently 4 teams in MLB that don't have a pitcher listed on the injury report right now. Most teams will start the season with an injured pitcher.

So yes, Sale, or Peavy, or Danks, or pretty much any pitcher who pitches a lot has a good chance of getting injured. It's kind of like predicting that an NFL running back or quarterback will get a concussion during the year.

For perspective, the Cubs currently have 3 pitchers on the injury report.

So, keep on making the same bland and pointless declarations every year. Just make it easier on yourself. Simply start a thread that says "Pitcher who pitches a lot and has pitched a lot before may get injured this year" and then celebrate like you just won a bowling league title when your crazy prediction comes true!

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Brick has a way of making me smile in the morning.

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Here is a crazy, out of this world, Elmhurstian prediction that WILL come true!

The Cubs AND Sox will win at least 50 games this season!!

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Pitchers who increase their innings dramatically are believed to be more prone to injury.

Regardless of Steve hoping Sale gets hurt, there is a legitimate concern there, if those kind of things occur to you.

Same with Matt Moore on the Rays and Strasburg on the Nats.

But for everyone one of those guy who gets hurt (I'm talking major injuries, not just missing ONE start with fatigue or a strain), there is another guy who has gone at least 180+ innings since becoming an every 5th game starter.

Pitchers get hurt doing other things too. Dempster got hurt jumping out of the dugout, Rivera got hurt shagging flyballs.


Here is an avatar bet for Steve. Who spends more time on the DL this season; Matt Garza or Chris Sale?

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Yes. Thats why I wrote "if those things occur to you"

Some people worry about injuries, some dont. If you're looking at rosters and considering who might get hurt, you might see some red flags with Sale.

I think he will be ok, though.

I think so too. And yes its always something to at least think about with younger pitchers, but if in Spring Training last year you would have said to me that one of these 3 Sox pitchers will have a season ending injury in May-- Sale, Peavy, and Danks-- I would not have picked Danks.

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What pitchers that are expected to get over 150 innings are you not concerned about injury for?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

The Verducci Effect has been pretty much debunked. Young pitchers with a spike in innings are not any more likely to get hurt than any other pitcher.

Edwin Jackson and anyone else who is usually good for 200

It was debunked by one site but even they said there is some correlation, just not as much as previously believed.

And The Verducci effect is more about a drop in productivity, not injury.

I still think big jumps in innings are risky. Will Caroll agrees.

Are there any other Cubs pitchers who there is no concern of injury?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

There are a few where I wont be concerned if they get hurt.


I always tend to worry about young pitchers. Its not a Cubs Sox thing.

Edwin Jackson is usually not a guy that gets hurt. The one time he did was when he thread like 150 pitches in his 8 walk no hitter.



Oh Steven
Oh, I see. So because Chris Sale threw a whopping 18 innings more than Smaardjia, he's destined for injury.

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His numbers came back to earth, after an unsustainable start. You might as well pat yourself on the back for predicting snow in the winter.

He was 11-2 with a 2.11 ERA. Of course the numbers will come back to Earth. Maybe you should call Mac.

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<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I know it's not a Cubs Sox thing. It's a pointless obvious Elmhurst Steve observation thing.

I just want a list of pitchers you don't have to worry about injuries for. I used the Cubs simply to limit the sample size.

Of the Cubs starting staff, what pitchers can you say with certainty won't get injured during the season?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

1. Mark Buehrle
2. ?

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Certainty?

No such thing. Im not certain Ill live through lunch, today.

I think any pitchers who have large jumps in innings are at risk. That's it.

I just did a quick check on baseball reference, and the last AL pitcher to end the season with a sub 2.11 ERA, was Pedro Martinez in 2000.

Steve predicted that Chris Sale, in his first season as a starter, wouldn't be as good as a first ballot HOFer in the prime of his career. Well done.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Wow, that kind of prediction takes serious balls to make, though. Give Steve Credit. He really went out on a limb there.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

Yep, I called him out on the same shit last year. When Sale was named an All Star, he said that Sale would put up worse numbers in the 2nd half of the season. He was 10-2 with a 2.19ERA with 98K in 102.2 IP at the break.

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The drop in productivity could be a simple regression to the mean and can not be directly attributed to a spike in innings the previous year. Many have written articles poking holes in this theory including BP.

Right, but thats about decreased productivity. Were talking injuries. I believe that part of it is valid, still.

I was going to post something similar. Nobody can be expected to keep up a pace like that... except maybe 1999-2003 'vintage Pedro.

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That's why we call him Elmhurst $teve around here: his word is as good, if not better, than currency around the 'burbs.... ya heard?

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or Bob Gibson.

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Or 2013 Chris Sale.

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Gibson wouldnt have put up those numbers from 99-03 like Pedro did.