82 wins..
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| What Say Ye South Side Fans https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=111677 |
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| Author: | One Post [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | What Say Ye South Side Fans |
I've got a small investment in the Sox at over 68.5 wins. Good bet or not? How close is it going to be one way or the other? |
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
Barring injuries, I think that is pretty easy money. 78-82 wins is where this team should be. |
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| Author: | Caller Bob [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
82 wins..
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
Yeah. Two games over .500-- as their ceiling. I'm really going out on a limb with that one. |
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| Author: | Caller Bob [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
Opening day starter = James Shields
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| Author: | WaitingforRuffcorn [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
Caller Bob wrote: Opening day starter = James Shields His eighth opening day start btw. He's emeritus by now. |
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| Author: | Caller Bob [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote: Caller Bob wrote: Opening day starter = James Shields His eighth opening day start btw. He's emeritus by now. He's the Lawrence Holmes of bad starting pitchers. |
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| Author: | WaitingforRuffcorn [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
Caller Bob wrote: WaitingforRuffcorn wrote: Caller Bob wrote: Opening day starter = James Shields His eighth opening day start btw. He's emeritus by now. He's the Lawrence Holmes of bad starting pitchers. Well FavreFan said he count beat Shields in one-on-one basketball and get a hit off him. Never made a similar claim of LH. |
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| Author: | pittmike [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
I figure the Sox will be somewhere a couple games around 500. If so, some pitcher has to win games. Might as well be Shields and we trade him in July. |
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| Author: | One Post [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
pittmike wrote: I figure the Sox will be somewhere a couple games around 500. If so, some pitcher has to win games. Might as well be Shields and we trade him in July. This is my issue with betting the over on a team that doesn't have designs on competing. There is a good chance that veteran productive guys who are helping the team maintain a pace that would result in the over bet winning are traded. The other issue is that they have no problem sticking with young guys who are just getting destroyed at the MLB level. Nevertheless, I like the numbers being tosses around by the Sox guys here. Hell, even if I discount the optimism by 10%, that still has the over hitting. |
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| Author: | pittmike [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
One Post wrote: pittmike wrote: I figure the Sox will be somewhere a couple games around 500. If so, some pitcher has to win games. Might as well be Shields and we trade him in July. This is my issue with betting the over on a team that doesn't have designs on competing. There is a good chance that veteran productive guys who are helping the team maintain a pace that would result in the over bet winning are traded. The other issue is that they have no problem sticking with young guys who are just getting destroyed at the MLB level. Nevertheless, I like the numbers being tosses around by the Sox guys here. Hell, even if I discount the optimism by 10%, that still has the over hitting. Yeah 68 seems ridiculous. Vegas or whoever must be counting on serious tanking. |
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| Author: | Caller Bob [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
pittmike wrote: Vegas or whoever must be counting on serious tanking. Or maybe they looked at the roster? |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
One Post wrote: I've got a small investment in the Sox at over 68.5 wins. Good bet or not? How close is it going to be one way or the other? 2 more wins than last year ... I think that's a reasonable number to take the over on. |
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| Author: | Big Chicagoan [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
75 wins. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
One Post wrote: pittmike wrote: I figure the Sox will be somewhere a couple games around 500. If so, some pitcher has to win games. Might as well be Shields and we trade him in July. This is my issue with betting the over on a team that doesn't have designs on competing. There is a good chance that veteran productive guys who are helping the team maintain a pace that would result in the over bet winning are traded. The other issue is that they have no problem sticking with young guys who are just getting destroyed at the MLB level. Nevertheless, I like the numbers being tosses around by the Sox guys here. Hell, even if I discount the optimism by 10%, that still has the over hitting. Shields is backed up by Rodon coming in June and Kopech possibly coming in the second half of the season. There is a pretty good chance their pitching is better on day 162 than day 1. The lineup is where they may take the hit. If Avi proves himself reliable in year 2, I think he is gone. The Sox will set a sky high price for Abreu and if someone matches it he will be moved. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
As I said before, I think it is a team that will play near .500 most of the season but it will have one horrific losing streak in the middle of the year caused by fatigue and inexperience that will drag down the record. What does fangraphs say? They are a good barometer for O/U with the Sox because they are always wrong in regards to the team. Then they explain it away as a statistical anomaly |
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
One Post wrote: This is my issue with betting the over on a team that doesn't have designs on competing. This was actually reversed for the Sox last year. They had a terrible May, June, & July but once the veterans were dealt and the young guys received some more playing time, they were better. 4 games under .500 the final 6 weeks of the season.
There is a good chance that veteran productive guys who are helping the team maintain a pace that would result in the over bet winning are traded. The other issue is that they have no problem sticking with young guys who are just getting destroyed at the MLB level. |
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| Author: | Terry's Peeps [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
One Post wrote: I've got a small investment in the Sox at over 68.5 wins. Good bet or not? How close is it going to be one way or the other? Good bet. They'll top out at 81 wins if things break well for them. 75 I would say is the low end for them. |
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| Author: | Brick [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
No even bet on the AL vs NL this year? 
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| Author: | One Post [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
Don Tiny wrote: One Post wrote: I've got a small investment in the Sox at over 68.5 wins. Good bet or not? How close is it going to be one way or the other? 2 more wins than last year ... I think that's a reasonable number to take the over on. The Royals got a bunch worse, the Tigers aren't even really a team. Cleveland essentially is the same team. Aside from the Twins, the rest of the division looks to be worse than 2017. I looked at it as even if the Sox don't improve relative to last year, they should pick up a few games just based on how shitty the other teams have become. |
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| Author: | One Post [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
Frank Coztansa wrote: One Post wrote: This is my issue with betting the over on a team that doesn't have designs on competing. This was actually reversed for the Sox last year. They had a terrible May, June, & July but once the veterans were dealt and the young guys received some more playing time, they were better. 4 games under .500 the final 6 weeks of the season.There is a good chance that veteran productive guys who are helping the team maintain a pace that would result in the over bet winning are traded. The other issue is that they have no problem sticking with young guys who are just getting destroyed at the MLB level. Although factually right on how the Sox performed, my thought on this would be that those veterans were part of the shitty first half that put the Sox on a pace to hit whatever the under was last year. There is no way in hell the pre season 2017 over/under for the Sox was 67 wins. My thing above is more that if a team is on pace to hit the over, if they bleed off veterans, that's a problem likely. |
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| Author: | One Post [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
good dolphin wrote: As I said before, I think it is a team that will play near .500 most of the season but it will have one horrific losing streak in the middle of the year caused by fatigue and inexperience that will drag down the record. What does fangraphs say? They are a good barometer for O/U with the Sox because they are always wrong in regards to the team. Then they explain it away as a statistical anomaly Fangraphs says 68 wins. |
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| Author: | Cheap Charlie [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
80-81 (rain). But wait'll next year. 
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| Author: | newper [ Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
FiveThirtyEight has it as 70-92. |
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| Author: | Nardi [ Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWQbN0jFo_k |
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| Author: | One Post [ Sun May 13, 2018 12:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
Losing confidence in this wager. Any thoughts from Sox fans to help? |
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| Author: | FavreFan [ Sun May 13, 2018 1:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
One Post wrote: Losing confidence in this wager. Any thoughts from Sox fans to help? Can’t get much worse. |
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| Author: | tommy [ Sun May 13, 2018 7:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
One Post wrote: Losing confidence in this wager. Any thoughts from Sox fans to help? Start betting on white privilege. |
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| Author: | juschill [ Sun May 13, 2018 7:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
One Post wrote: Losing confidence in this wager. Any thoughts from Sox fans to help? A lot of them think Jimenez will help. I have a feeling he's Dayan Viciedo II. |
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| Author: | WaitingforRuffcorn [ Sun May 13, 2018 8:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What Say Ye South Side Fans |
juschill wrote: One Post wrote: Losing confidence in this wager. Any thoughts from Sox fans to help? A lot of them think Jimenez will help. I have a feeling he's Dayan Viciedo II. Based on what? You are just trolling |
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