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86.5 Wins
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=120401		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:31 pm ]
Post subject:  86.5 Wins
Pound the over, baby!
Author:  Tall Midget [ Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
I've got the under. 85 wins, brah.
Author:  FavreFan [ Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
I’ll take the under.
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
It all rides on Giolito, he's the horse this bet rides on..

If he is what he was last year then they win 90-plus, if he regresses at all it could go down to the 80s or even under 500
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
88, 89. Maybe 90.
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
Incidentally I think the Rangers might be a good value at 79 and 1/2

It seems like they've been mentioned in every rumor and they could end up making a few big deals still in the next month or so.

And the Astros are probably going to be absolutely terrible because they can't cheat like the fucking cheating lying cheater assholes they are
Author:  The Hawk [ Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
I think that the number will be 91 games. If still hope that they add another good reliever, maybe two. I am really psyched about this line-up and the improvement in the starting pitching. Minnesota is the team to beat but they lost some important pitching. Its really going to be a fun year.
Author:  Nardi [ Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
I'm showing 83.5. I can't find 86.5.
Author:  Jaw Breaker [ Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
Orioles and Tigers at 56 :shock:
Author:  Ogie Oglethorpe [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
Nardi wrote:
I'm showing 83.5. I can't find 86.5.

Throw your money at that while you can.
Author:  Caller Bob [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
They won't win north of 78 games with the worst defense in baseball.
Author:  blackhawksfan [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
Take the over if you think they have two 15 game winners on the starting staff
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
Caller Bob wrote:
They won't win north of 78 games with the worst defense in baseball.
100% agree with this Cubs thought.
Author:  billypootons [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
id bet the under and be very happy to lose the bet. generally when you add a bunch of free agents it sounds great pre-seasona nd it makes you feel like the team is going to succeed.. but it rarely seems to work out as well as you thought it would.
Author:  Bababooey [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
Padres and Reds were the two overhyped young teams last year. Both sucked.
Author:  BigW72 [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
White Sox 72-89
Reds 75-87
Padres 70-92

all three have been rebuilding. All three will be better in 2020, but better as in playoff contention? I don't think so. The Reds minor league system is just above the middle of the pack. They added Moustakis, Shogo Akiyama, and now Castellanos. They'll be better but I don't know if they'll top 85 wins....I don't think the Sox and Padres top 85 either.
Author:  Nardi [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
billypootons wrote:
id bet the under and be very happy to lose the bet. generally when you add a bunch of free agents it sounds great pre-seasona nd it makes you feel like the team is going to succeed.. but it rarely seems to work out as well as you thought it would.

There is no 86.5.
It is 83.5
Author:  Bababooey [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
Don't get the reds hype. Miley is a 5th starter, Moose is overpaid when you look at the numbers beyond bubblegum card stats, and they signed a Japanese outfielder in his early thirties not as good as Fukodome. Castellanos will help.
Think they'll be third in nl central, ahead of Pitt and Milwaukee.
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
Nardi wrote:
I'm showing 83.5. I can't find 86.5.

Little buzzed. My mistake sorry

Over 86.5 does work for over 83.5 though
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
Bababooey wrote:
Don't get the reds hype. Miley is a 5th starter, Moose is overpaid when you look at the numbers beyond bubblegum card stats, and they signed a Japanese outfielder in his early thirties not as good as Fukodome. Castellanos will help.
Think they'll be third in nl central, ahead of Pitt and Milwaukee.

Their lineup is stacked

Castillo, Bauer, and Gray have all had dominant runs in the last two years.

If the pitchers stay healthy they should be real good
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
billypootons wrote:
id bet the under and be very happy to lose the bet. generally when you add a bunch of free agents it sounds great pre-seasona nd it makes you feel like the team is going to succeed.. but it rarely seems to work out as well as you thought it would.

Eh feel its like 50/50 but people expect it to work ALL the time.
Author:  good dolphin [ Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
87 wins means every one of the rookies upon whom they will be heavily leaning all are immediately good to great
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
good dolphin wrote:
87 wins means every one of the rookies upon whom they will be heavily leaning all are immediately good to great

Not really
Eloy, Moncada, Abreu, Anderson, Mazara/Leury and Grandal/McCann should all be solid enough to navigate some bumps in the road for Robert and Madrigal
Author:  good dolphin [ Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
rogers park bryan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
87 wins means every one of the rookies upon whom they will be heavily leaning all are immediately good to great

Not really
Eloy, Moncada, Abreu, Anderson, Mazara/Leury and Grandal/McCann should all be solid enough to navigate some bumps in the road for Robert and Madrigal


and Cease. 1 out of 5 games will have rookies right up the middle on d and every game will have them in prominent positions on O.

Please don't put Mazara/Leury in the same conversation with any of those other names again. I will be happy if they constitute a league average RF.

I think there is potential to absolutely explode (in a good way). I wouldn't bank on it.
Author:  SoxMachineFan [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
For me, it comes down to whether or not you think the individual players can be their projections and I think there's a case to be made for several players that broke out last year that projected to regress closer to their career average when there's an excellent case to be made that their break out seasons were the result of a change in philosophy. Here are some players that I think should be able to beat their projections based on them coming closer to how they looked last season than their career averages.
• Lucas Giolito
• Tim Anderson
• Yoan Moncada

Here are some other guys that are poised to beat their projections by taking a step up.
• Kopech – He seems like a slam dunk to beat his forecasts. He's projected for a 1.1-1.3 WAR behind Lopez and Gonzalez. All the reports and news I've heard about him is that he still has his velocity, but he's learned how to use his other pitches better.
• Yermin Mercedes – I'm adding him jokingly because he's just not going to get enough at-bats to have a significant impact. He's not even a lock to make the 26 man roster. But he's been a beast so far in spring training.
• Eloy – I think he could challenge for the HR title this year!
• Luis Robert – I think he looks great out there, and he's only 22. I think the projections are fine for his first year. He ranges from 2.4 to 2.9. I think he'll end up around 3, which should put him in the top third of all CFs this year.

I think all the pitchers get a bump towards beating their projections because of Grandal. The projection systems seem to look more at career averages and I'm under the impression that it's not accounting for the addition of Grandal enough.

I'm a push on these guys:
• Mazara – He's had enough time in the big league to break out, but he's still relatively young at 24y, 10 m.
• Abreu – I can see him struggling a little more as he ages, but he has better protection all around him in the line up now, which should make even it out.

Heres a couple I think might have a tougher road to meet their projections.
• Grandal – He's projected as the best catcher and the tenth highest overall war among all position players. He can have a great year and still not beat this projection. He's being projected at a best-case scenario.
• Gio Gonzalez – He's already fighting a shoulder injury on the same shoulder that he hurt last year.
• Edwin Encarnacion – Zips has him down for 33 HRs this year. Does age regression start to affect him? He's being projected at the best-case scenario, which generally isn't a safe bet.

I took the over at 83.5.
Author:  Terry's Peeps [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
84 wins.
Author:  PortageP_Chi [ Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
rogers park bryan wrote:
Pound the over, baby!


Seems doable. Royals and Tigers will stay at the bottom this year, and Minnesota will probably regress a little bit this year. I think we can make a strong push for 2nd in the division, 88-90 wins.
Author:  The Hawk [ Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
good dolphin wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
87 wins means every one of the rookies upon whom they will be heavily leaning all are immediately good to great

Not really
Eloy, Moncada, Abreu, Anderson, Mazara/Leury and Grandal/McCann should all be solid enough to navigate some bumps in the road for Robert and Madrigal


and Cease. 1 out of 5 games will have rookies right up the middle on d and every game will have them in prominent positions on O.

Please don't put Mazara/Leury in the same conversation with any of those other names again. I will be happy if they constitute a league average RF.

I think there is potential to absolutely explode (in a good way). I wouldn't bank on it.


I don't understand the bagging on Mazara by people. THe guy is 24 years old and has hit 20 home runs per season in 4 seasons in the major leagues. He is a big time addition for a team that had terrible production from the right field position in the line-up. Looking at him, he looks to have good balance at the plate and a decent batting eye. Whether he will be able to adjust and hit left handed pitchers still is a question but Leury is there if a platoon becomes necessary. Once again. HE IS 24 YEARS OLD and has 4 years major league experience. That is pretty darned good when you think it through.
Author:  donspiracy [ Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 86.5 Wins
It would be so White Sox to end with 86 wins and a rainout game to never be made up at the end of the season.
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