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Baseball Prospectus
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Author:  bigfan [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 9:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Baseball Prospectus
It's fine to have confidence, but it's also important to recognise when those confident words represent little more than empty promises. The future provides no guarantees. The Sox - and Kenny Williams- can posture all they like, but 2005 is gone and their farm system is desperately shallow. The near -term goal is to contend and squeeze some last bit of glory out of a core built around Swisher, Thome, Konerko, Dye, Buerhle, Vazquez and Jenks, but the White Sox' winter activity might have been only the last desperate throw before an extended collapse.

-------

I do not work for Baseball Prospectus, or is EG Greg going to get mad at me for Baseball Prospectus ripping the Sox.
Author:  Beardown [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 9:47 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yes Big Fan. We all know we're picked no better than 3rd in the division by many experts. Many of us agree with that. We don't need Baseball Prospectus or anyone else telling us that, on paper, the Indians and Tigers are better than us. I'm cautiously optimistic. But a 75 win season wouldn't shock me like it did last year.

I do like our line up. Bullpen has to be better. We're gonna have to win a lot of 1 run games vs the Indians and Tigers. That being said, even 92 wins doesn't guarantee making the playoffs in our division/league. So we could improve to that and still miss the playoffs.

By the way, if we're way out of it by the trading deadline our farm system will improve. A lot of vets will be traded for kids at that point.
Author:  W_Z [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 9:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
yeah i agree, beardown--i think they'll build it back up. i like their lineup but their pitching staff as a whole is a lot of question marks.

the AL east and central is incredibly loaded.
Author:  Regular Reader [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 10:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baseball Prospectus
bigfan wrote:
It's fine to have confidence, but it's also important to recognise when those confident words represent little more than empty promises. The future provides no guarantees.


And THIS COMING FROM A CUBBIE FAN? :roll: :lol:
Author:  bigfan [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 10:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
I just copied and pasted what BP wrote about The Sox.

Yet, you still get angry at me? lol

Mariotti said something about "Hypersensitive Fan Base" could that be right?
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 10:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
Baseball prospectus also had them at like 76 wins for 2005. Not saying they'll win 99 again this year, but anythings possible. Thats why they play the games.
Author:  Beardown [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:07 pm ]
Post subject: 
I didn't get angry Big Fan. But you acted like you discovered something. We know everybody likes the Indians and Tigers. They are the favorites. They deserve to be the favorites. We also know we don't have much in the minors. I knew that without reading it.

Hey Big Fan. What does Baseball Prospectus think of the Rays? I mean, do they think the Yanks and Red Sox are better than them? Do they think the Yanks and Red Sox are better than the Orioles. I gotta know. They're the only ones that can predict these baseball divisions. :lol:
Author:  Regular Reader [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:20 pm ]
Post subject: 
bigfan wrote:
Mariotti said something about "Hypersensitive Fan Base" could that be right?


Now BF you know better than trying to seek out Eddie Munster (or his oft poorly chosen words) for cover... :roll:
Author:  bigfan [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:24 pm ]
Post subject: 
Sure seem a bit angry.

And I was not even so focused on how they do this year, but more on the "before an extended collapse. "statement.

Actually The RAYS will be much better than expected.

Considering Vegas has Sox and Rays at 78.5 WINS I will be happy to place cash on Rays WINS v Sox WINS ? any takers?
Author:  Beardown [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:31 pm ]
Post subject: 
Rays do look decent. They have two young stud pitchers. They still have the Yanks and Red Sox with unlimited pay rolls. I think this is the year the Yanks end their 14 consecutive playoff streak.

Red Sox will win that division. Wild Card will come out of the central or west. Mariners might get that Wild Card with the Angels winning the division. They weren't bad last year and they got that Orioles pitcher.
Author:  bigfan [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
I would love to know how I "ACTED" like I discovered something when I only Copied And Pasted something and typed nothing else. I didn't even put a :lol: guy.

This is the Hypersensitive Fan base at it's finest and Eddie did write a nice peice Yesterday about Stoney and what is going to happen if he starts taking shots at the Sox. No doubt Jay Munster writes it to stir the pot, but it was well written and most likely right.

What can I say. I love when Jay rips Kenny, Ozzie, Hawk and even Jerry . Getting Kenny, Ozzie and Hawk to call you names and get pissed is not really impressive, anyone who looks at them the wrong way can do it. But to get Jerry going takes something special. Never really saw any person ever get under Jerry's skin like that. You got to give the guy credit for something very few people have done.
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
I will bet on the Sox winning more games than the Rays.
Author:  Beardown [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
Not really sensitive Big Fan. I've made fun of the Sox the better part of my life. Only 4 playoffs in my life. A lot of bad teams or near misses.

I guess there was nothing wrong with what you posted. I'm just saying we knew our farm system sucked.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I will bet on the Sox winning more games than the Rays.


Done. What's the price?
Author:  bigfan [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:02 am ]
Post subject: 
Irish Boy
Big Frank

In...anyone else?
Author:  Regular Reader [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:04 am ]
Post subject: 
bigfan wrote:
Irish Boy
Big Frank

In...anyone else?


Yep... :afro:
Author:  Beardown [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:05 am ]
Post subject: 
No thanks. It's not a lay up. Hell, like you said Big Fan, Vegas has them even for total wins. I know the Sox can lose 90 games this year. I think there is hope for a good season too. I really don't know what to expect.
Author:  FredsMissingNuts [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 8:00 am ]
Post subject: 
I have the Sox for 78 wins this year. A few predictions.

Konekro and AJ are traded by the deadline.

Ozzie is suspended for more the 5 games twice this year.

Buerhle is shut down with a sore arm.

Jerry Owens hits 280, with 59 steals.

Bobby Jenks eats himself to the dl twice this year.

It going to be a bad year for the white sox, the signs are already there at spring traning. Wish I had better news :wink:
Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 8:16 am ]
Post subject: 
FredsMissingNuts wrote:
I have the Sox for 78 wins this year. A few predictions.

Konekro and AJ are traded by the deadline.

Ozzie is suspended for more the 5 games twice this year.

Buerhle is shut down with a sore arm.

Jerry Owens hits 280, with 59 steals.

Bobby Jenks eats himself to the dl twice this year.

It going to be a bad year for the white sox, the signs are already there at spring traning. Wish I had better news :wink:


Konerko becomes a 5/10 player sometime in May, I believe. I don't think he will agree to a trade unless it is arizona or california

I think Buhrle is going to have a fantastic year
Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 8:25 am ]
Post subject: 
bigfan wrote:
Sure seem a bit angry.

And I was not even so focused on how they do this year, but more on the "before an extended collapse. "statement.

Actually The RAYS will be much better than expected.

Considering Vegas has Sox and Rays at 78.5 WINS I will be happy to place cash on Rays WINS v Sox WINS ? any takers?


If it were pre Curt Flood and Andy Messersmith, I might agree on the extended collapse. The current core is aging and the high level minors are bare. However, the opinion fails to take into account 2 factors:

1) Free agency. Thome is off the books next year if he does not get traded. Same with Crede. Uribe is gone. That is somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 million right there. The replacements will be less expensive as Dye will move to DH with Quinton taking RF, Ramirez/Richar taking 2B and Fields taking 3B.

2) Trades. I am fully expecting a fire sale in July. Thome, Crede, Uribe possibly Dye, Cabreara and Contrearas. Each of these (except for Uribe) should yeild a major league ready minor leaguer.

How do you like that dispassionate analysis of your post?
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 8:41 am ]
Post subject: 
The Sox could lose 90 games again this year...sure. But if the Rays match thier best win total ever this year, they will be 72-90. Maybe they're due, but I think the Sox will be around .500 when its all said and done, with the Rays coming in about 74-75 wins.
Author:  FredsMissingNuts [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:53 am ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
I think Buhrle is going to have a fantastic year


Hoepfully he will, because the last two years he has been average at best. I like him, but since 2005 he is a 500 pitcher. I know, last year he didnt get run support to go with his 3.80 era, I will give you that, but I just get a feeling he might be hurt or for sure has lost some movement on his breaking pitches, because he isnt the same guy from 2005. His no hitter was the best he looked last year obviously, but like I said, his stuff just seem as crisp as it was in the past.
Author:  Keyser Soze [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:51 am ]
Post subject: 
The boys at baseball prospectus are getting a TON of mileage out of being right once this decade.


predicted actual
'00 78 95
'01 87 83
'02 84 81
'03 83 86
'04 79 83
'05 80 99
'06 82 90
'07 72 72
Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:02 am ]
Post subject: 
While not exact that is very accurate 5 out of 8 years
Author:  Brick [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:08 am ]
Post subject: 
good dolphin wrote:
While not exact that is very accurate 5 out of 8 years


If you take out last year, which was a great call, they pretty much picked 78-87 wins every year. with most of the picks hovering between 78-84.

I could be accurate in most years picking a major market team that spends a decent amount of money to win about half of their games.

It's kind of like a weatherman who predicts it won't rain every day. He would be right a majority of the time.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:10 am ]
Post subject: 
I've said it before for other sports, and I'll say it again- the absolute accuracy of a forecasting system isn't the real issue, because no forecasting issue can ever be 100% accurate. The question is- what is it's relative accuracy when compared to other systems. For anyone who maligns the folks at BP for bad predictions, there's an easy way out: pick the win totals for all 30 teams, then see which projection is closer.
Author:  Brick [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:14 am ]
Post subject: 
So I should care about a forecast by someone who is slightly better than someone who follows baseball as a passing interest between the end of basketball and the start of football?

It wouldn't be an accomplishment to beat my predictions for total wins for all MLB teams. I also don't go around selling my thoughts.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:20 am ]
Post subject: 
That's fine, but they usually beat everyone else's projections too, including the other professional publications. At the very least, they have an accumulated track record of predicting well.

That's why I think the "you were wrong about X!" line of argumenting is unfair. OK, but if they were wrong about 7 things and everyone else was wrong about 13 or more, then they were better. Show me a system or projection that predicts what you are predicting- say, for example, the White Sox winning 84+ games this year. Then we'll compare the entirety of the projections against the entirety of the BP projections. I already pretty much know which one will come out ahead.
Author:  Brick [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:28 am ]
Post subject: 
predicted actual
'00 78 95
'01 87 83
'02 84 81
'03 83 86
'04 79 83
'05 80 99
'06 82 90
'07 72 72

Total Games Off: 0 + 8 + 19 + 4 + 3 + 3 + 4 + 17 = 58 games off total

Now let's pick 81 games for every year, which is .500 and look back

predicted actual
'00 81 95
'01 81 83
'02 81 81
'03 81 86
'04 81 83
'05 81 99
'06 81 90
'07 81 72

Total Games Off: 9 + 9 + 18 + 2 + 5 + 0 + 2 + 14 = 59 games off total

So it looks like for the White Sox, you could have been just as accurate over that time period by just picking them to win 81 games every year. Given the fact that in MLB that it's easier to slot certain teams in(teams like the Royals and Devil Rays are not real contenders, the Yankees and Red Sox always are contenders).
Author:  Darkside [ Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
Fact of the matter is you pick any team, and give them 81, and you're going to be closer than someone willing to take a larger gamble over a period of 8 years. Cept for the Braves maybe.
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