Exactly what i said, 67 wins.
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| Author: | Northside_Dan [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 1:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | BP Pecota Projections |
Team W L Minnesota 82 80 White Sox 79 83 Detroit 79 83 Cleveland 77 85 Kansas City 66 96 Runs Scored 789 Runs Against 812 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ This team looks a lot better than 79 wins to me |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 1:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
I would flip the WS and the Indians W/L |
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 1:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
82 wins will not take this division. |
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| Author: | jemadden [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 1:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
i disagree with this, the way i look at it their startin staff will get between 65-70 wins alone....though there are some big questions in the lineup |
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| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 1:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
jemadden wrote: i disagree with this, the way i look at it their startin staff will get between 65-70 wins alone....though there are some big questions in the lineup If the White Sox get 70 wins from their starters alone, they'll win over 100 games. |
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| Author: | jemadden [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
figure buerhle and peavy frou about 15 wins each, danks and floyd for 13-14 each and garcia for about 10...i think that is a little conservative too |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
jemadden wrote: figure buerhle and peavy frou about 15 wins each, danks and floyd for 13-14 each and garcia for about 10...i think that is a little conservative too That's 53 wins, not 65-70. |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
RFDC wrote: jemadden wrote: figure buerhle and peavy frou about 15 wins each, danks and floyd for 13-14 each and garcia for about 10...i think that is a little conservative too That's 53 wins, not 65-70. 15 15 13 14 10 = 67 Ill go out on a limb and say they wont have 4 13 game winners |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
Exactly what i said, 67 wins.
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| Author: | Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
The Yankees had 103 wins last year with about 63-64 wins from their starters. I checked Seattle the year that they won 116 games and they had between 75-80 wins from their starters. Angels had exactly 70 wins from their starters in '08 and won 100 games. |
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| Author: | BD [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
Year - Projected/Actual (Performance over Projected) 2004 - 79 wins/83 (+4) 2005 - 80 wins/99 (+19) 2006 - 82 wins/90 (+8) 2007 - 73 wins/73 (0) 2008 - 77 wins/89 (+12) 2009 - 73 wins/79 (+6) |
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
So under Ozzie the Sox have averaged 8.16 wins more than BP predicts. That sets the over under on 2010 White Sox wins at 87.16 |
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| Author: | jemadden [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
upper 80's in wins will win this division, their lineup scares me though. 2 guys they are countin on big time in quentin and rios seem to be head cases, both very talented but both headcases. if rios is just average sox win this division. average would have to be .270/20/70 |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
As noted even by BP themselves, they are never correct in projecting the White Sox. I think they are giving zero respect to the Twins. They have 2 MVP in their lineup. They probably have another 2 guys who will hit 30 HR. They have enough speed where they felt comfortable moving Gonzales. They have a lock down closer. And the Indians will finish in last in the division |
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
That Anderson- Podsednik- Ankeil outfield will lead the Royal's to 4th place! |
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| Author: | jemadden [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
i don;t think the twins moving outside will hurt them that much, they have a short-porch in right too |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
good dolphin wrote: As noted even by BP themselves, they are never correct in projecting the White Sox. Never say Never BD wrote: Year - Projected/Actual (Performance over Projected)
2007 - 73 wins/73 (0) |
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
rogers park bryan wrote: good dolphin wrote: As noted even by BP themselves, they are never correct in projecting the White Sox. Never say Never BD wrote: Year - Projected/Actual (Performance over Projected) 2007 - 73 wins/73 (0) Never. The 2007 White Sox were 72-90 |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
Frank Coztansa wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: good dolphin wrote: As noted even by BP themselves, they are never correct in projecting the White Sox. Never say Never BD wrote: Year - Projected/Actual (Performance over Projected) 2007 - 73 wins/73 (0) Never. The 2007 White Sox were 72-90 Well if they cant get the number right AFTER the season...then i guess the do suck |
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| Author: | Apologist [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 5:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
BD wrote: Year - Projected/Actual (Performance over Projected) 2004 - 79 wins/83 (+4) 2005 - 80 wins/99 (+19) 2006 - 82 wins/90 (+8) 2007 - 73 wins/73 (0) 2008 - 77 wins/89 (+12) 2009 - 73 wins/79 (+6) This is pretty interesting. It also suggests Guillen is a fairly good manager.. |
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| Author: | Keyser Soze [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 5:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
Northside_Dan wrote: Team W L Minnesota 82 80 White Sox 79 83 Detroit 79 83 Cleveland 77 85 Kansas City 66 96 Runs Scored 789 Runs Against 812 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ This team looks a lot better than 79 wins to me Mully has his show for Monday. 
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| Author: | BD [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 9:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1495 Regarding PECOTA by Eric Seidman Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues. One issue involves the run environment: individual player projections do not match up with the run totals on the projected standings. Another problem revolves around BABIP, as defense was being double-counted (double-counted). These and other issues are being worked on and we hope to have an update provided by the end of the day, to unmess up. Please stay tuned for further updates. |
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| Author: | Apologist [ Fri Jan 29, 2010 9:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
Maybe we need a VORP on PECOTA |
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| Author: | Keyser Soze [ Sat Jan 30, 2010 11:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
BD wrote: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1495 Regarding PECOTA by Eric Seidman Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues. One issue involves the run environment: individual player projections do not match up with the run totals on the projected standings. Another problem revolves around BABIP, as defense was being double-counted (double-counted). These and other issues are being worked on and we hope to have an update provided by the end of the day, to unmess up. Please stay tuned for further updates. Is this an apology for their '09 or '10 predictions? |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 3:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
with a factor for error these genii are saying everyone has a chance at the division except the Royals.That's going out on a limb NOT
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| Author: | CSFMB Guy [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 7:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
Given that they've only been close once, maybe twice, in the past six years of Sox predictions, why does anyone even pay attention to these? |
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| Author: | Keyser Soze [ Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
Northside_Dan wrote: Team W L Minnesota 82 80 White Sox 79 83 Detroit 79 83 Cleveland 77 85 Kansas City 66 96 Runs Scored 789 Runs Against 812 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ This team looks a lot better than 79 wins to me They updated their predictions. I feel SO much better about the Sox chances now: AL Central Chicago White Sox 80 82 Detroit Tigers 80 82 Minnesota Twins 80 82 Cleveland Indians 77 85 Kansas City Royals 74 88 |
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| Author: | BD [ Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
Keyser Soze wrote: Northside_Dan wrote: Team W L Minnesota 82 80 White Sox 79 83 Detroit 79 83 Cleveland 77 85 Kansas City 66 96 Runs Scored 789 Runs Against 812 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ This team looks a lot better than 79 wins to me They updated their predictions. I feel SO much better about the Sox chances now: AL Central Chicago White Sox 80 82 Detroit Tigers 80 82 Minnesota Twins 80 82 Cleveland Indians 77 85 Kansas City Royals 74 88 We're expected to believe that no team will have a winning record in the division? |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
If they didn't get to play each other, that would probably be true almost every year. |
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| Author: | Keyser Soze [ Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: BP Pecota Projections |
BD wrote: We're expected to believe that no team will have a winning record in the division? Absolutely not. I just find it funny how serious some take these 'predictions'. |
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