Top 3 are solid, but those last 2 are extremely worrisome. It is cool to have one of those 2 in the rotation, but both of them? Yikes...
Sale
Peavy
Floyd
Quintana
Axelrod
Danks needs to get better fast.
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| Starting Rotation https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=78135 |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Starting Rotation |
Top 3 are solid, but those last 2 are extremely worrisome. It is cool to have one of those 2 in the rotation, but both of them? Yikes... Sale Peavy Floyd Quintana Axelrod Danks needs to get better fast. |
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| Author: | FavreFan [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Do middle-of-the-road teams usually have five quality, reliable starters? |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
FavreFan wrote: Do middle-of-the-road teams usually have five quality, reliable starters? No. But you also do not want 2 #5 starters in there. Quintana or Axelrod in the #5 spot is perfectly fine, but both of them in the rotation is bad. |
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| Author: | FavreFan [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
RFDC wrote: FavreFan wrote: Do middle-of-the-road teams usually have five quality, reliable starters? No. But you also do not want 2 #5 starters in there. Quintana or Axelrod in the #5 spot is perfectly fine, but both of them in the rotation is bad.  So you're saying the Sox could improve their rotation? I agree. They could improve their lineup a bit too. As you would say to good dolphin, c'mon man, you can do better than this. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
I feel comfortable that Dylan Axelrod can put up at least as good a record (12-14) as "Losing Pitcher" John Danks would. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Also, we all know the Yankees are the best team money can buy. Who are their fourth and fifth starters? |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I feel comfortable that Dylan Axelrod can put up at least as good a record (12-14) as "Losing Pitcher" John Danks would. Seriously? I know you are an Anti Danks guy, but you really think Axelrod can do that? I have seen nothing even close to that from him. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
RFDC wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I feel comfortable that Dylan Axelrod can put up at least as good a record (12-14) as "Losing Pitcher" John Danks would. Seriously? I know you are an Anti Danks guy, but you really think Axelrod can do that? I have seen nothing even close to that from him. He's pitched okay. Of course, I'd rather have a healthy Danks, but sometimes guys like Axelrod surprise you. Anyway, it's not like Danks is some world beater. Yeah, I'm still mad he got Buehrle's money. And Quintana had a good spring. I don't believe in him yet, but maybe he's just a good pitcher. He throws strikes. |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Also, we all know the Yankees are the best team money can buy. Who are their fourth and fifth starters? True. Tho that is not a good example to follow as they always believe they can mash their way to the playoffs and then of course get beat when they cannot mash as well against good pitching in the playoffs. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
RFDC wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Also, we all know the Yankees are the best team money can buy. Who are their fourth and fifth starters? True. Tho that is not a good example to follow as they always believe they can mash their way to the playoffs and then of course get beat when they cannot mash as well against good pitching in the playoffs. I'm just saying, most teams have some cipher coming out of the four and five spots. And this coronation of Detroit is a little premature. I mean, I know they have the best offense since the '27 Yankees, but the Sox outscored them last year. And I really doubt they have a Triple Crown winner this season. |
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| Author: | Apologist [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
I went to the trouble of looking at the projected 4 and 5 starters over on Fangraphs for each AL team. They averaged the projections of both ZIPS and Steamer, with a panel of experts projecting IP estimates. Now we can argue about advanced statistics, the validity of projection systems, etc. but these are culled from a multitude of people who understand baseball a lot better than we do so let's lend it some credibility based on that. 4, 5 starters, projected IP, projected ERA *(WS I put 5a and 5b for shits and giggles, just to compare either possibility as there seems to be some uncertainty) Tiger 4 Anibal Sanchez 180.0 4.10 5 Rick Porcello 132.0 4.39 Ranger 4 Alexi Ogando 105.0 3.75 5 Nick Tepesch 81.0 4.78 Yankee 4 Ivan Nova 151.0 4.47 5 Phil Hughes 107.0 4.42 White Sock 4 Jose Quintana 131.0 4.51 5a* Dylan Axelrod 97.0 4.56 5b* John Danks 92.0 4.47 Athletic 4 Brett Anderson 143.0 3.83 5 Bartolo Colon 149.0 4.02 Red Sock 4 Clay Buchholz 150.0 4.20 5 Felix Doubront 122.0 4.22 Blue Jay 4 Brandon Morrow 141.0 3.92 5 Ricky Romero 137.0 4.46 Ray 4 Alex Cobb 171.0 3.94 5 Jeff Niemann 88.0 4.13 Angel 4 Joe Blanton 167.0 4.08 5 Tommy Hanson 151.0 3.94 Mariner 4 Erasmo Ramirez 107.0 4.21 5 Blake Beavan 106.0 4.69 Royal 4 Wade Davis 162.0 4.37 5 Bruce Chen 81.0 4.71 Oriole 4 Miguel Gonzalez 146.0 4.49 5 Jake Arrieta 122.0 4.71 Twin 4 Mike Pelfrey 143.0 4.76 5 Liam Hendriks 91.0 4.76 Indian 4 Zach McAllister 136.0 4.70 5 Scott Kazmir 91.0 5.36 Astro 4 Philip Humber 129.0 4.80 5 Erik Bedard 85.0 4.64 Just looking at those totals, it seems to me the WS are at least middle of the road, and certainly nothing too far off the median, definitely better than some teams. So in conclusion I don't really see what point you are making here. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
I'm not a big Anibal Sanchez fan, but he and Porcello are a solid back end. But it's a funny game. I doubt Scherzer will be as good as he was last year. |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 3:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Thanks for the #s apologist. Very few of those would trade 4-5's with the Sox. Guess we will see how it goes. |
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Its been "losing pitcher" Gavin Floyd more often then not the last 4 years. |
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| Author: | Terry's Peeps [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
I'm happy with the rotation. I'd be happier if it was Floyd hurt rather than Danks. |
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| Author: | Apologist [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Looking at those numbers again I can see what you are saying. I think it's more a matter of looking at the rotations as a whole, for example if Sale, Peavy or Floyd are your 1-3 and goes down, then we are looking at your 6th, 7th, 8th starters being really 4 or 5. I don't think I typed that in the best manner, it's reading Elmhurstian a bit 
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Also, we all know the Yankees are the best team money can buy. Who are their fourth and fifth starters? Ivan Nova and David Phelps. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Apologist wrote: Athletic 4 Brett Anderson 143.0 3.83 5 Bartolo Colon 149.0 4.02 Brett Anderson is their horse. He is taking the bump tomorrow. |
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| Author: | Apologist [ Sun Mar 31, 2013 12:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Chus wrote: Apologist wrote: Athletic 4 Brett Anderson 143.0 3.83 5 Bartolo Colon 149.0 4.02 Brett Anderson is their horse. He is taking the bump tomorrow. I couldn't figure that out when i was databasing those numbers. The Elephant 1-5 is basically interchangeable. Moneyball |
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| Author: | Keyser Soze [ Sun Mar 31, 2013 1:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Scott Kazmir and Eric Bedard are on the list so it had to be around 2008. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Mar 31, 2013 1:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Starting Rotation |
Keyser Soze wrote: Scott Kazmir and Eric Bedard are on the list so it had to be around 2008. Bedard is in the Astros' rotation, and Kazmir is the Indians 5th starter. |
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