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WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=80770
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Author:  bigfan [ Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:20 am ]
Post subject:  WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

They still have Rios, Dunn, Ramirez, Danksx2, Floyd, Sale, Beckham,Tekotte, Tank (Best hitter since Carlos Delagdo) all coming back next year, they will probably be better and the dont have any costs of a stadium to run. Just retool a little bit, aim for the .500 season and the 1.56M fans that come out. Right back on track.

Author:  pittmike [ Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

I see what you did there but you are probably right. They strive to be 500 and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

Author:  bigfan [ Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

pittmike wrote:
I see what you did there but you are probably right. They strive to be 500 and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.


The "Lightening in a bottle" is a phrase used most often by Sox fans when describing the team, but I do agree with it.

I know someone will come on and show me the exact records and show us all they have been above .500 (guess who that will be?).

The point being is that the Sox get guys who had down years, they sign them at discounted rates and look for the Bounceback. Sometimes they get that bounceback, but when they get the bad years from the guys they signed who had bad years before they signed them all I hear is that these guys are better than that and they are playing bad for no reason. Maybe they arent, maybe they are exactly what you signed, a guy who plays in the majors for 8 years and has 3 good years, 1 injured year and 4 bad years?

The Sox admit to not spending money on minor league development. Jerry was the one who conducted the study, that it costs $4M for each minor league player to develop a MLB player, thus he figures it is not worth it to make it emphasis and never has.

Yet, still an issue when Sox fans and the organization get upset as they are always ranked bottom 5? Yet they admit to not making it an emphasis?

I know you are intrigued with my thoughts this morning.

Author:  Elmhurst Steve [ Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Not sure they will have Rios in a few days. I think Hawk will holler "He Gone" before the deadline, for the team that put the dead, into deadline. The rebuild should have begun this past offseason like I said at the time. Instead, they wasted money on Peavy and kept Rios longer than ideal. Hell, they could have gotten more for him in January, coming off a strong 2012. I know this thread was made in jest, but seriously, Hahn made far too many miscalculations. He should have recognized that this team would not compete in 2013 and begun the process. Instead, he has a dead-ass team with a disinterested fan base and is behind in the process rather than getting a jump on it.

Author:  good dolphin [ Mon Jul 29, 2013 10:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

bigfan wrote:
[

The point being is that the Sox get guys who had down years, they sign them at discounted rates and look for the Bounceback.


GMs have had books written about them for taking this approach.

I am surprised no one has crunched the numbers on this. It would seem to me that the player with the most value in baseball is the one you didn't have to develop and who signed on the cheap only to produce an above his average.

Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Mon Jul 29, 2013 11:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Yep;

Image

Author:  bigfan [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

good dolphin wrote:
bigfan wrote:
[

The point being is that the Sox get guys who had down years, they sign them at discounted rates and look for the Bounceback.


GMs have had books written about them for taking this approach.

I am surprised no one has crunched the numbers on this. It would seem to me that the player with the most value in baseball is the one you didn't have to develop and who signed on the cheap only to produce an above his average.


What about the times they produce below their average? The list is much longer than those who over produce.
I am sure if you want to skew the numbers to prove the point on which is more effective $$, signing under performers is a better deal, but the result is one year of 84 wins, next year is 77 wins, then 86, then 74 all with very little future outlook, No trend, no history, no real expectations, no ticket sales.

Author:  Rod [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

bigfan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
bigfan wrote:
[

The point being is that the Sox get guys who had down years, they sign them at discounted rates and look for the Bounceback.


GMs have had books written about them for taking this approach.

I am surprised no one has crunched the numbers on this. It would seem to me that the player with the most value in baseball is the one you didn't have to develop and who signed on the cheap only to produce an above his average.


What about the times they produce below their average? The list is much longer than those who over produce.
I am sure if you want to skew the numbers to prove the point on which is more effective $$, signing under performers is a better deal, but the result is one year of 84 wins, next year is 77 wins, then 86, then 74 all with very little future outlook, No trend, no history, no real expectations, no ticket sales.


But the last team that really developed a consistent year-after-year core out of their own farm system that actually yielded championships was the Yankees with three guys at the most important positions and the best closer of all time. If Theo can do that, I'll tip my cap. I don't believe he can though. I don't think the Yankees can do it again either.

Author:  Gloopan Kuratz [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

If they thought they could win next year they wouldn't have dumped Peavy.

Author:  Hatchetman [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Gloopan Kuratz wrote:
If they thought they could win next year they wouldn't have dumped Peavy.


Probably, or JR knew he couldn't cash flow with current payroll and attendance.

Author:  Rod [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Gloopan Kuratz wrote:
If they thought they could win next year they wouldn't have dumped Peavy.


I'm not saying they're going to win next year, but they sure don't need Peavy to do it.

Author:  Kirkwood [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
bigfan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
bigfan wrote:
[

The point being is that the Sox get guys who had down years, they sign them at discounted rates and look for the Bounceback.


GMs have had books written about them for taking this approach.

I am surprised no one has crunched the numbers on this. It would seem to me that the player with the most value in baseball is the one you didn't have to develop and who signed on the cheap only to produce an above his average.


What about the times they produce below their average? The list is much longer than those who over produce.
I am sure if you want to skew the numbers to prove the point on which is more effective $$, signing under performers is a better deal, but the result is one year of 84 wins, next year is 77 wins, then 86, then 74 all with very little future outlook, No trend, no history, no real expectations, no ticket sales.


But the last team that really developed a consistent year-after-year core out of their own farm system that actually yielded championships was the Yankees with three guys at the most important positions and the best closer of all time. If Theo can do that, I'll tip my cap. I don't believe he can though. I don't think the Yankees can do it again either.

San Francisco. St. Louis.

Author:  bigfan [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Hatchetman wrote:
Gloopan Kuratz wrote:
If they thought they could win next year they wouldn't have dumped Peavy.


Probably, or JR knew he couldn't cash flow with current payroll and attendance.


Below 1.6 Mill and they dont pay 1 cent for use of the park. Nothing! Not an electric bill, gas bill, security, etc.

Between that and the MLB upcoming deal, they will cash flow. I also know the partners dont care about cash flow. They kinda care about cash calls (even though they shouldnt)

If the Bulls or Sox cash flow is a choice Jerry makes, nothing more as the CEO. He can create a scenario in both cases that the teams make money.

One thing people just never realize is that Jerry does not live or die by the cash flow of these teams. He doesnt own that much of them. So it's not Jerry being cheap, or spending money.

However, Jerry makes a ton of $$$ as 50% owner of the UC. No investment group, just him and that place is paid for 100%.

Author:  Rod [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Kirkwood wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

But the last team that really developed a consistent year-after-year core out of their own farm system that actually yielded championships was the Yankees with three guys at the most important positions and the best closer of all time. If Theo can do that, I'll tip my cap. I don't believe he can though. I don't think the Yankees can do it again either.

San Francisco. St. Louis.


San Francisco isn't going anywhere this season. And St. Louis has always been a good organization, but they seem to just make the right moves at the right time. It's not necessarily the result of a great farm system. They've won with Pujols and without. They picked up Beltran and Berkman when the shine was off them. That's the model that's being criticized here.

Author:  Hatchetman [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

cash calls = cash flow. That's exactly what I was talking about. Could they cash flow at a $120MM payroll. I dunno.

Author:  bigfan [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Hatchetman wrote:
cash calls = cash flow. That's exactly what I was talking about. Could they cash flow at a $120MM payroll. I dunno.


Remember, cash is not paid out yearly, they do keep a cash surplus for down years. I think they have had 3 cash calls under Jerry.

Still just shocked WE cant have concerts at The State of Illinois Ballpark.

Author:  Kirkwood [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

But the last team that really developed a consistent year-after-year core out of their own farm system that actually yielded championships was the Yankees with three guys at the most important positions and the best closer of all time. If Theo can do that, I'll tip my cap. I don't believe he can though. I don't think the Yankees can do it again either.

San Francisco. St. Louis.


San Francisco isn't going anywhere this season. And St. Louis has always been a good organization, but they seem to just make the right moves at the right time. It's not necessarily the result of a great farm system. They've won with Pujols and without. They picked up Beltran and Berkman when the shine was off them. That's the model that's being criticized here.

Okay, but they won 2 out of 3 on the backbone of their minor league system. And St. Louis didn't skip a beat because of their minor league system. The Rangers went to two World Series and were a few out from winning one on the strength of their minor league system. The Tigers are where they are because of their minor league system. How did they get Cabrera?? They had prospects to sucker the Marlins with! Looks like they've suckered the Marlins again with Sanchez and Infante.

Author:  Rod [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

Kirkwood wrote:
The Tigers are where they are because of their minor league system. How did they get Cabrera?? They had prospects to sucker the Marlins with! Looks like they've suckered the Marlins again with Sanchez and Infante.


But that's the Kenny model. He just isn't as good at it.

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: WHY RELOAD/REBUILD?

I think its obviously a marriage of a good farm system and prudent trades/acquisitions that yields results

Even the Yankees added guys like Weteland, Cone etc


The farm system thing keeps you from being horrible, thus your in it consistently even in years where they should be regressing

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