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The Avisail Garcia Problem https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=89276 |
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Author: | America [ Sat Sep 20, 2014 12:55 pm ] |
Post subject: | The Avisail Garcia Problem |
A couple things before I get started: 1. Avi has rushed back from an injury that is a season ender 95% of the time. That could be an excuse, and it could not be. On one hand it's a bad injury and it showed a lot of balls coming back this quickly. On the other, the White Sox have a fantastic training staff, among the best in the game (they have a fantastic track record, only really tarnished by John Danks), and they wouldn't have brought him back unless he was medically cleared to play. If they had any worries the answer would've been a resounding "no" to his requests to return. 2. Avisail Garcia isn't drowning. He's batting a shade over .250, which while mediocre for a corner OF isn't even the worst the White Sox have had at the position this year (Viciedo, De Aza). The OBP is around .310, not world ending. He hits the ball to the opposite field with authority. His wRC+ is dead even with the league average. He isn't outright failing at the MLB level, but he's got some problems too... The bad He's striking out too much with not enough power to show for it. I can deal with 25% K's if it's coupled with a .500+ slugging, but Avi is at .418 there. He's a glorified singles hitter who occasionally gets a hold of one and launches it. With his speed and opposite field approach I'd want to see more doubles. Why isn't he hitting it into the gaps? Why isn't he just pulling it right down the line for XBH? You may think I'm sounding like a pedant, but I'm not. There's a very real risk he's getting lucky on his .250 average, I'm not the firmest believer in BABIP but he's a got a .60 point spread there. There's a very strong regression case there, and if Avi regresses from a league average hitter that makes him a *drumroll* below average hitter. Not the end of the world if he plays an OF position but... Avi can't field. Before the injury he was one of those guys who you think might be able to figure it out, after the injury he's a mess. His range feels like it's been cut in half, his throws aren't consistent and his jumps are occasionally idiotic and frequently tentative. I'm worried he cannot play a corner OF without being a total defensive liability. That comes full circle with the batting problem in that he's not a good enough hitter to be a DH. The profile that's developing for him at the plate is starting to paint a picture of a guy who's offensive production is acceptable if he's playing good defense, if he's playing bad defense or no defense at all he'll fall short of every expectation the org has of him in terms of production. So here's the problem, and I don't have an answer, what the fuck happens now? Obviously he's starting next season in the OF, but if the Sox are making a move at the AL Central having out there could quickly become a liability the Sox cannot accept. Move him into a DH/4th OF role? That's not good enough. |
Author: | Hatchetman [ Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:59 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
he gets the viciedo treatment: 1500+ ABs to prove his suckitude. |
Author: | good dolphin [ Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:46 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Your analysis displays zero attention to context |
Author: | Mr. Reason [ Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:53 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
good dolphin wrote: Your analysis displays zero attention to context They don't call him Amerika for nothing. |
Author: | bigfan [ Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:54 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Be happy to trade him for Junior Lake today. Kenny would love to have that kid, makes a great WR! |
Author: | America [ Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:23 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Hey if he wants to hit like 900 feet of HR in one day that's cool. I like that. Doesn't solve the defense problem, but you find places for guys who hit HR a lot. |
Author: | Kirkwood [ Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:40 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
He's too tired to hit for power after porking his teammates wives. |
Author: | good dolphin [ Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:32 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
America wrote: Hey if he wants to hit like 900 feet of HR in one day that's cool. I like that. Doesn't solve the defense problem, but you find places for guys who hit HR a lot. You don't think he was told to take it easy on defense until next year? |
Author: | Brick [ Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:36 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
He just needs to learn how not to do the things that make him bad and then he will be good. |
Author: | good dolphin [ Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:17 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Avi Garcia was a plus defender who was considered a capable fill in at CF when the season began. |
Author: | Hatchetman [ Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:21 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
He looks like a big oaf who doesn't know how to field to me. But that won't matter if he hits. |
Author: | Tall Midget [ Mon Sep 22, 2014 1:46 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Hatchetman wrote: He looks like a big oaf who doesn't know how to field to me. But that won't matter if he hits. Are you employed as an executive with the Chicago Cubs? |
Author: | Kirkwood [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:43 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
He's appears to be a mini Dayan Viciedo minus the power. 25% K rate and 4.5% BB is a bad omen. The scary thing is he's batting .274 AVG with .365 BABIP. Not good. |
Author: | America [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:31 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
He's been much better offensively than I thought he would be. Defensively he's everything I expected, which is bad, but he's starting to be a little better about at least getting in front of the ball before it rolls to the wall and he drops it. He's calming down some, blowing a few chances in the extra innings game on Thursday seems to have changed him. Reevaluate in a couple of weeks. |
Author: | Seacrest [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:34 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Kirkwood wrote: He's appears to be a mini Dayan Viciedo minus the power. 25% K rate and 4.5% BB is a bad omen. The scary thing is he's batting .274 AVG with .365 BABIP. Not good. Kirkwood wrote: Baez sparking World Series talk. I agree with callers saying this year is unreasonable but NLCS isn't out of the question. How quickly we forget our previous scouting reports. |
Author: | America [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:40 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Viciedo he is not. Dayan did a lot of really dumb shit all the damn time, Avi has probably been the Sox best baserunner this year. Avi makes bad plays in right, but not bad plays because he isn't thinking/doesn't care. He tries way too hard sometimes, thinking he can just will the ball to second base before the runner or mentally force himself to get a big hit. This could be a mental thing brought on by his ability to will himself back to the big league club last season off that injury. |
Author: | Hussra [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:41 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Trade Garcia to the Rangers for Beltre's last year and a half. |
Author: | America [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:44 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
That's a huge overpay, Texas wouldn't even be holding onto for a comp pick this season and the team that gets him is on the hook for a lot of money. Adrian Beltre probably costs something more like Montas/Danish + Hawkins/Michalczewski/Jacob May. |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:56 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
I don't think you want to give up much of consequence for an aged Adrian Beltre, yes he has been good for the last few years with Texas but yank him out of his warm comfort zone and who knows what would happen. Plus he could slide into old-age oblivion at any moment. No thanks. |
Author: | Kirkwood [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:58 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Avi's slugging percentage is oddly low for a 6-4 245 pound cat. You'd think just being naturally big his swing would send some balls through gaps or bouncing against walls. |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:03 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Kirkwood wrote: Avi's slugging percentage is oddly low for a 6-4 245 pound cat. You'd think just being naturally big his swing would send some balls through gaps or bouncing against walls. C'mon, brohammer, get this putrid amateur our shit outta here. Get ta' steppin', ace! |
Author: | Hussra [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:14 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Beltre, like Ortiz and other Dominicans, starts off slow some seasons. Beltre posted a .321 /.365/.553 .919 OPS when he played in Boston. and it wasn't all Fenway--his away OPS was 70 points higher than his home that season. Mostly joking about Avi Garcia going to Texas anyhow. Rumor is Detroit dealt Garcia when they did cuz Garcia was banging Prince Fielder's estranged wife. Fielder found out about it and it blew up their clubhouse. Somehow Miguel Cabrera got injured in the ensuing fracas. |
Author: | America [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:17 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
SomeGuy wrote: I don't think you want to give up much of consequence for an aged Adrian Beltre, yes he has been good for the last few years with Texas but yank him out of his warm comfort zone and who knows what would happen. Plus he could slide into old-age oblivion at any moment. No thanks. OTOH his numbers are HOF worthy. |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:23 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
America wrote: SomeGuy wrote: I don't think you want to give up much of consequence for an aged Adrian Beltre, yes he has been good for the last few years with Texas but yank him out of his warm comfort zone and who knows what would happen. Plus he could slide into old-age oblivion at any moment. No thanks. OTOH his numbers are HOF worthy. I know, but will his numbers be worthy enough to trade prospects etc for? That's my point. Dudes old and getting older...always a ticking time bomb as to when he falls off the cliff. But, then again, all he would need to be is better than what is already at 3rd. |
Author: | Hatchetman [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:26 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
i guess with the collapse of Venezuela's economy you can't get steroids anymore.... |
Author: | bigfan [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:33 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
Lake for Garcia deal now back on? |
Author: | bigfan [ Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:35 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
America wrote: A couple things before I get started: 1. Avi has rushed back from an injury that is a season ender 95% of the time. That could be an excuse, and it could not be. On one hand it's a bad injury and it showed a lot of balls coming back this quickly. On the other, the White Sox have a fantastic training staff, among the best in the game (they have a fantastic track record, only really tarnished by John Danks), and they wouldn't have brought him back unless he was medically cleared to play. If they had any worries the answer would've been a resounding "no" to his requests to return. 2. Avisail Garcia isn't drowning. He's batting a shade over .250, which while mediocre for a corner OF isn't even the worst the White Sox have had at the position this year (Viciedo, De Aza). The OBP is around .310, not world ending. He hits the ball to the opposite field with authority. His wRC+ is dead even with the league average. He isn't outright failing at the MLB level, but he's got some problems too... The bad He's striking out too much with not enough power to show for it. I can deal with 25% K's if it's coupled with a .500+ slugging, but Avi is at .418 there. He's a glorified singles hitter who occasionally gets a hold of one and launches it. With his speed and opposite field approach I'd want to see more doubles. Why isn't he hitting it into the gaps? Why isn't he just pulling it right down the line for XBH? You may think I'm sounding like a pedant, but I'm not. There's a very real risk he's getting lucky on his .250 average, I'm not the firmest believer in BABIP but he's a got a .60 point spread there. There's a very strong regression case there, and if Avi regresses from a league average hitter that makes him a *drumroll* below average hitter. Not the end of the world if he plays an OF position but... Avi can't field. Before the injury he was one of those guys who you think might be able to figure it out, after the injury he's a mess. His range feels like it's been cut in half, his throws aren't consistent and his jumps are occasionally idiotic and frequently tentative. I'm worried he cannot play a corner OF without being a total defensive liability. That comes full circle with the batting problem in that he's not a good enough hitter to be a DH. The profile that's developing for him at the plate is starting to paint a picture of a guy who's offensive production is acceptable if he's playing good defense, if he's playing bad defense or no defense at all he'll fall short of every expectation the org has of him in terms of production. So here's the problem, and I don't have an answer, what the fuck happens now? Obviously he's starting next season in the OF, but if the Sox are making a move at the AL Central having out there could quickly become a liability the Sox cannot accept. Move him into a DH/4th OF role? That's not good enough. Nothing better when Sox people and fans compliment the training staff like they are doctors or magicians. Nate doesn't agree. |
Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Apr 28, 2015 8:28 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
bigfan wrote: America wrote: A couple things before I get started: 1. Avi has rushed back from an injury that is a season ender 95% of the time. That could be an excuse, and it could not be. On one hand it's a bad injury and it showed a lot of balls coming back this quickly. On the other, the White Sox have a fantastic training staff, among the best in the game (they have a fantastic track record, only really tarnished by John Danks), and they wouldn't have brought him back unless he was medically cleared to play. If they had any worries the answer would've been a resounding "no" to his requests to return. 2. Avisail Garcia isn't drowning. He's batting a shade over .250, which while mediocre for a corner OF isn't even the worst the White Sox have had at the position this year (Viciedo, De Aza). The OBP is around .310, not world ending. He hits the ball to the opposite field with authority. His wRC+ is dead even with the league average. He isn't outright failing at the MLB level, but he's got some problems too... The bad He's striking out too much with not enough power to show for it. I can deal with 25% K's if it's coupled with a .500+ slugging, but Avi is at .418 there. He's a glorified singles hitter who occasionally gets a hold of one and launches it. With his speed and opposite field approach I'd want to see more doubles. Why isn't he hitting it into the gaps? Why isn't he just pulling it right down the line for XBH? You may think I'm sounding like a pedant, but I'm not. There's a very real risk he's getting lucky on his .250 average, I'm not the firmest believer in BABIP but he's a got a .60 point spread there. There's a very strong regression case there, and if Avi regresses from a league average hitter that makes him a *drumroll* below average hitter. Not the end of the world if he plays an OF position but... Avi can't field. Before the injury he was one of those guys who you think might be able to figure it out, after the injury he's a mess. His range feels like it's been cut in half, his throws aren't consistent and his jumps are occasionally idiotic and frequently tentative. I'm worried he cannot play a corner OF without being a total defensive liability. That comes full circle with the batting problem in that he's not a good enough hitter to be a DH. The profile that's developing for him at the plate is starting to paint a picture of a guy who's offensive production is acceptable if he's playing good defense, if he's playing bad defense or no defense at all he'll fall short of every expectation the org has of him in terms of production. So here's the problem, and I don't have an answer, what the fuck happens now? Obviously he's starting next season in the OF, but if the Sox are making a move at the AL Central having out there could quickly become a liability the Sox cannot accept. Move him into a DH/4th OF role? That's not good enough. Nothing better when Sox people and fans compliment the training staff like they are doctors or magicians. Nate doesn't agree. Yes he does. |
Author: | America [ Sun May 17, 2015 12:45 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
I think he's going to be alright. |
Author: | walkrman5 [ Sun May 17, 2015 7:01 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: The Avisail Garcia Problem |
well last night Hawk told us all that in the next 50 to 100 years...White Sox historians will look back at trade for Avisail Garcia as one of the most significant trades in Sox history. It set their direction! Also, according to Hawk,...Avisail Garcia has a chance to be a monster. The guy hits one double in one random game and suddenly he is the most significant in history! Only senile Hawk can come up with this crap! |
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