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| Gamblers POV https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=92706 |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Gamblers POV |
Here is a write up on the Sox from a gambling POV. Someone who doesnt care what thye do, just wants to win money and for the most part is actually really good at this stuff. ------------------------------------------------ Today’s MLB preview is on a team that made some major moves in the off-season and would clearly seem to be improved. But perhaps not by as much as some think, at least according to this observer. The Chicago White Sox were pretty awful in 2014. That doesn’t figure to be the case in 2015. There’s virtually no argument to the premise that the Chisox did some good things over the winter and I would definitely agree they’re likely to at least be a respectable entry this season. But there are still some serious holes on this roster. Second and third base are potential problem areas, particularly the former. Ditto for behind the plate. The projected regulars at those three spots are each just a shade over replacement level according projected WAR figures. The outfield should be okay with Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia, but there’s little in the way of depth so any injuries among that trio could be critical. Adam LaRoche is serviceable as a 1B/DH but he’s also getting up there in years and is not going to set the world on fire at this point. Alexis Ramirez is solid as a rock at SS and then there’s Jose Abreu, who was absolutely sensational in his debut and has quickly established himself as one of the game’s most feared sluggers. The starting pitching looks to be a genuine strength. Chris Sale might miss a little time at the start of the season, but he’s a true ace. Jeff Samardzija will be an asset as long he’s wearing a White Sox jersey, but if the team is not contending, he could once again be a rental possibility. Jose Quintana is an underrated lefty, and then there’s Carlos Rodon. Rodon was projected as the top overall pick in last year’s draft before his stock took a mini-dip thanks to an ordinary year at North Carolina State. But that whole team was a disappointment and I think the White Sox stole this lefty in a sense. I felt the Astros should have taken him with the top overall pick. Rodin has a vicious slider that stamps him as a potential ace and if the Chisox are serious about making a playoff push, it’s my belief he should be in the rotation from opening day. The back end of that starting staff without Rodon appears to be John Danks and Hector Noesi. That’s not going to cut it for a team striving to make the post-season. The bullpen, an absolute disaster last season, can’t be worse, and David Robertson should firm up the ninth inning. The Zach Duke addition is a plus as well. But the rest of the pen is at best still an unknown quantity. Robin Ventura is still the head man in the dugout and there is plenty of mixed opinion as to his managerial skills. Regardless of one’s stance on that count, there’s probably little question that Ventura heads into 2015 on the hot seat to some extent. I see this team as being headed in the right direction, but not quite as much as the current O/U might indicate. I have the White Sox tabbed at right about 77-78 wins. There are just too many question marks here for me to project them as a winning team, so I believe Under the win total is the way to play with the White Sox |
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| Author: | Brick [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
bigfan wrote: Here is a write up on the Sox from a gambling POV. Someone who doesnt care what thye do, just wants to win money and for the most part is actually really good at this stuff. Who is it?
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| Author: | bigfan [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
Top secret! Just a tout that CHUS would hate |
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| Author: | Brick [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
Well ok then. How do you know he is really good at this stuff? |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
follow lotsa of his stuff and his picks. He gives solid write ups on his picks, of why he is picking teams...and has done very well for me. Especially the past month picking some very obscure games. To his credit also has done very well at Vegas Hilton contest for NFL. Has been in top 5 , 3 different times. |
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| Author: | Hussra [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
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| Author: | Brick [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
bigfan wrote: follow lotsa of his stuff and his picks. He gives solid write ups on his picks, of why he is picking teams...and has done very well for me. Especially the past month picking some very obscure games. To his credit also has done very well at Vegas Hilton contest for NFL. Has been in top 5 , 3 different times. I guess I'll take your word for it. 
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| Author: | Hussra [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
bigfan wrote: I see this team as being headed in the right direction, but not quite as much as the current O/U might indicate. I have the White Sox tabbed at right about 77-78 wins. There are just too many question marks here for me to project them as a winning team, so I believe Under the win total is the way to play with the White Sox Exact same thing for the Cubs. 77-78 wins. Bookmark dis phread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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| Author: | Hussra [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
never mind: http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/11/t/1190828.aspx Cubs over? http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/11/t/1190142.aspx Hmm. Apparently folks are forgetting the Cubs have to play and win games against other teams. Something this group of players hasn't shown the ability to do on a consistent basis. |
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| Author: | Brick [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
http://smokincokin.com/ $250 a week? Good work if you can get it. |
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| Author: | Hussra [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
yeah, you'd have to be playing in 1K units for it to be worth the $1K a month solo. But if he's hitting more than he's missing and you are playing that kinda of bank, might be worth it. I assume some/most? folks pool their resources and chip in to get access. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
any tout who spends even a paragraph talking about the manager of a baseball team in a discussion on win totals, as your guy did in both Cubs and Sox analysis, is trying to fill space Notice, unproven Cub rookies are a reliable play to get you Over, while Sox second year bullpen who did well last year at MLB level, is unproven The bias is apparent. The number one factor in success this year is going to be the rotation (Sale health and Noesi/Danks quality) yet he buries it in his analysis as an afterthought. He then spends a paragraph on a guy who isn't going to make the starting rotation out of camp. He doesn't seem to understand that Bonifacio provides depth in the OF. Capping baseball O/U seems like a difficult proposition. This guy's analysis doesn't provide any comfort from that. |
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| Author: | Douchebag [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
bigfan wrote: follow lotsa of his stuff and his picks. He gives solid write ups on his picks, of why he is picking teams...and has done very well for me. Especially the past month picking some very obscure games. To his credit also has done very well at Vegas Hilton contest for NFL. Has been in top 5 , 3 different times. Bernstein has been pretty solid with his write ups and picks the past few months. I bet this guy is Danny. |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
dude writes crap to sell to idiots to help offset his own gambling losses. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
David Cokin also picked the Atlanta Hawks to go under 42 wins this season. They are currently 50-13. http://smokincokin.com/tag/atlanta-hawks-preview/ |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
You guys are all correct, He is terrible. You should never listen to him |
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| Author: | Douchebag [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
Chus wrote: David Cokin also picked the Atlanta Hawks to go under 42 wins this season. They are currently 50-13. http://smokincokin.com/tag/atlanta-hawks-preview/ Can you find anyone who had the Hawks winning 50 games this season? |
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| Author: | Seacrest [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
Douchebag wrote: Chus wrote: David Cokin also picked the Atlanta Hawks to go under 42 wins this season. They are currently 50-13. http://smokincokin.com/tag/atlanta-hawks-preview/ Can you find anyone who had the Hawks winning 50 games this season? I did. |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
I am worried about that "smokincokin" site. Kind of a weird name for a site unless it's XXX. |
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| Author: | Douchebag [ Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
Seacrest wrote: Douchebag wrote: Chus wrote: David Cokin also picked the Atlanta Hawks to go under 42 wins this season. They are currently 50-13. http://smokincokin.com/tag/atlanta-hawks-preview/ Can you find anyone who had the Hawks winning 50 games this season? I did. Link? |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
Prediction machine has the Sox winning 77 games. the pure stat guys have really given the Sox a low bar to shoot for. I would be surprised for this team to be below .500. Very few times do you find such a difference in the PECOTA & other computer guys and Vegas. |
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| Author: | Scooter [ Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
77 is real low. I figure 83 if all goes well. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
Scooter wrote: 77 is real low. I figure 83 if all goes well. Vegas is 81.5o to 82.5 |
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Gamblers POV |
bigfan wrote: Vegas is 81.5o to 82.5 That seems to be about right. There are better season win total bets out there, IMO. |
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