As almost every publication that uses a prediction computer program to pick W and L's predcited the Sox not do well.

Just want to make sure the old "Who could have saw this coming" sign stays in its wrapper...

As almost every publication that uses a prediction computer program to pick W and L's predcited the Sox not do well.

The frantic season of the White Sox might not have been good enough

It's hard not to love the offseason of the White Sox. They picked up Adam LaRoche on a completely reasonable contract, signed Melky Cabrera to a fine deal, traded for Jeff Samardzija, and blew a lot of money on an excellent closer. It was a frenetic offseason from a team that was in danger of lulling its fans to sleep.

The only problem: PECOTA dislikes almost all of those moves. LaRoche is projected to slip down the birthday slope, Cabrera is supposed to be a solid regular and nothing more, Samardzija is projected to be barely above replacement level, and even the best relievers aren't going to make up a lot of the difference.

Then you add up the moves they didn't make. The projected starter at second base is Carlos Sanchez, who is projected to be exactly at replacement level. The good news is Emilio Bonifacio is also there, just in case, and he projects to be a tenth of a win better. If Hector Noesi sticks as the fifth starter, he might be one of the worst rotation regulars in the game, and John Danks is going to be mediocre in the best-case scenarios.

That's the best part about projections, though. You can cherry pick the ones you don't trust and remove them from your own mental calculus. Samardzija having the worst full season of his career? I'll take the over. If Noesi really is that bad, he'll be replaced in short order, possibly by golden-armed prospect, Carlos Rodon. Slap the books out of PECOTA's hands and push it into its locker, dammit. Get mad, White Sox fans!

Still, the regression forecasts for players like Conor Gillaspie and Adam Eaton are a little troubling. The White Sox spent a lot of money to contend. They can't afford to have a lot of players moving backward.

Those will be wrong though too. I believe most of the stuff you posted had them winning around 77 games. They'll do better than that.

I agree with you, but lets not get into the 'nobody predicted" it again.

It's about 6 games into the season.

I'm a man living on the edge but you have to give it at least 30 games for panic to set in.

Didn't those predictions also say the Royals would suck?

Just want to make sure the old "Who could have saw this coming" sign stays in its wrapper...

As almost every publication that uses a prediction computer program to pick W and L's predcited the Sox not do well.

The frantic season of the White Sox might not have been good enough

It's hard not to love the offseason of the White Sox. They picked up Adam LaRoche on a completely reasonable contract, signed Melky Cabrera to a fine deal, traded for Jeff Samardzija, and blew a lot of money on an excellent closer. It was a frenetic offseason from a team that was in danger of lulling its fans to sleep.

The only problem: PECOTA dislikes almost all of those moves. LaRoche is projected to slip down the birthday slope, Cabrera is supposed to be a solid regular and nothing more, Samardzija is projected to be barely above replacement level, and even the best relievers aren't going to make up a lot of the difference.

Then you add up the moves they didn't make. The projected starter at second base is Carlos Sanchez, who is projected to be exactly at replacement level. The good news is Emilio Bonifacio is also there, just in case, and he projects to be a tenth of a win better. If Hector Noesi sticks as the fifth starter, he might be one of the worst rotation regulars in the game, and John Danks is going to be mediocre in the best-case scenarios.

That's the best part about projections, though. You can cherry pick the ones you don't trust and remove them from your own mental calculus. Samardzija having the worst full season of his career? I'll take the over. If Noesi really is that bad, he'll be replaced in short order, possibly by golden-armed prospect, Carlos Rodon. Slap the books out of PECOTA's hands and push it into its locker, dammit. Get mad, White Sox fans!

Still, the regression forecasts for players like Conor Gillaspie and Adam Eaton are a little troubling. The White Sox spent a lot of money to contend. They can't afford to have a lot of players moving backward.

So the projections and complex algorithms powered by a Cray super computer predict the White Sox to be around .500

Boy, that's really something, next thing you know it will predict coin flips 50/50 as well!

Its almost like the Royals, led by SABR punching bag Ned Yost, decided to do the exact opposite of what the league was doing and are succeeding because of it. Investing in bullpen? BAD SABR. Stealing bases? BAD SABR. High batting average hitters? BAD SABR.

I dont think SABR is largely against investing in bullpens.

No, they really do. I forgot who wrote it but one of them (was it Dave Cameron? fuck I hate him) said he'd trade the best bullpen in the game away for a SP with a WAR of around 2.0. They cannot project their performance with their computers so they just assume they're worthless and move on.

The only problem: PECOTA dislikes almost all of those moves. LaRoche is projected to slip down the birthday slope, Cabrera is supposed to be a solid regular and nothing more, Samardzija is projected to be barely above replacement level, and even the best relievers aren't going to make up a lot of the difference.

I didn't need PECOTA to tell me these moves where not going to make a big difference. I have been saying that since spring training.

You keep on saying this, but I believe you even said the Sox would win about 81 games.

That is a big difference. Just not enough to make the playoffs.

I said 76 or something around that. Nothing in the 80's.

Oh ok. You'll be wrong then. I just have to wait now.

Yup. Just like past Sox teams like in 2006, you can't control playing in the best division in baseball.

And in 2006, the Sox still won 90 games after starting out 2-4. Same record as this year's club after 6 games, for those Cubs fans who care so much.

However in that year, the Sox shot themselves in the foot with horrible pitching down the stretch, and that is why the missed the playoffs. They were 33-41 in the season's 2nd half.

They missed Rowand's TWTW