Derrick Rose not yet elite point guard
Derrick Rose is putting up All-Star numbers and having his best season by far. But there's a problem.

by John Hollinger
Espn.com

Derrick Rose doesn't draw fouls.

That's about all the negativity I can muster toward him in an impressive first quarter of the season, yet it remains an important distinction in evaluating his place among the league's elite.

Let me explain.

For starters, there is no question that Rose is aboard the fast track to superstardom. The third-year guard played well enough to make the All-Star team a year ago, and this season he's a no-brainer pick. He ranks fourth in the league in scoring and ninth in assists. At times he's been electric and unstoppable, such as his 14-point outburst during an 18-0 run in Houston that broke open a close game in the fourth quarter.

Moreover, his success has proven fruitful for his employers. The Bulls are eighth in the Power Rankings, despite a brutal early schedule and free-agent pickup Carlos Boozer playing in five of their first 20 games. The Playoff Odds see them winning 49 contests and the Central Division crown.

Unquestionably, their catalyst has been Rose. While he's shooting a lot, it's not just a question of taking more shots. He's also added some tools to his repertoire. Most notably, he's stroking the 3-pointer more confidently and, so far, more accurately. Rose attempted 132 triples in his first two pro seasons and didn't shoot it much more often for Team USA this summer, but in the current season he's trying over four 3-pointers a game and converting at a respectable 37.1 percent clip. It's the perfect response to opponents' preferred strategy of defending him by going under screens and conceding the jumper.

They concede that J, of course, because Rose is such a great finisher around the basket. He's shooting 58.6 percent in the basket area this year, according to Hoopdata.com, and has been in that range his entire career. Moreover, he gets there often -- nearly six times a game for his career.

All of those skills should make him a lethal force and a legit MVP candidate. And they would ... if he would draw some fouls.

Rose, however, isn't in the elite category if we look at PER, Estimated Wins Added or any other analytic metric. He's sixth among point guards in estimated wins added (EWA), right behind Raymond Felton and a loooong way behind leaders Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

In PER, it's a similar story -- sixth among point guards, 19th overall. Long-time Bulls fans will no doubt be shocked to see him listed behind Shannon Brown and Tyrus Thomas.

And while that state of affairs is likely temporary, the reason behind it is more permanent. The reason, as you might have surmised already, is that Rose doesn't draw fouls.

FTA/FGA and TS%: ELITE POINT GUARDS
Player FTA/FGA TS%
Devin Harris .571 59.3
Russell Westbrook .488 54.3
Deron Williams .434 58.9
Chris Paul .413 60.5
Steve Nash .368 60.5
Tony Parker .277 56.6
Derrick Rose .264 53.3
Rajon Rondo .210 53.6

Rose's shooting percentages -- 45.6 percent overall, 37.1 percent on 3s -- are solid for a point guard. But his True Shooting Percentage -- 53.3 -- is rather ordinary. Of the league's 62 qualifying point guards, 32 outrank him in that category, including all the ones he's compared to in the "best point guard" debates (see chart).

Compare head-to-head against the league's elite point guards and the difference jumps out. Despite all his forays to the rim, Rose averages 5.6 free throw attempts per game on just over 21 field goal attempts; his rate of .26 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is well below the league average of .32.

As with the TS% above, 32 of the league's point guards outrank him in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That list includes his backup (C.J. Watson, 0.28); jump-shooting specialists such as Cleveland's Daniel Gibson and Memphis' Mike Conley; and a whole host of players who aren't nearly as good.

Against the elite, he's completely outclassed in this category. Westbrook gets to the line nearly nine times a game, or once for every two field goal attempts; this difference accounts for nearly the entirety of Westbrook's advantages over Rose and places him comfortably ahead in TS% and PER. Paul takes nearly as many free throws on half as many shot attempts. Williams also shoots dramatically less than Rose but gets to the stripe nearly seven times a game. Even Tony Parker -- a slasher, whose M.O. is to sidestep the hit and make the shot instead -- gets to the line at a higher rate than Rose.

The only elite point guard who gets to the line less frequently than Rose is Rajon Rondo, and that's because he's actively terrified of having to shoot free throws. The punch line? Rondo still has a better TS% than Rose.

Unlike Rondo, Rose has no reason to fear the stripe because he converts at a respectable 77 percent clip. He just doesn't earn himself a lot of trips.

I've heard a variety of explanations for Rose's relative lack of freebies. The "no respect from the refs" theory is the one most often heard in the upper reaches of Illinois, but it's also the most suspect. Several less-experienced players have had little trouble getting to the foul line at a more frequent clip. Rookie John Wall, for instance, is the one whose physical skills are most often compared to Rose's, and he's had no trouble getting to the line with far greater frequency.

Moreover, it's not like Rose is some unknown rookie. In his third season as Chicago's featured offensive performer, I'd say the officials are deeply familiar with his playing style.

No, the unfortunate fact is this: The same things that make Rose so watchable also conspire against him. He's so smooth, so graceful and so explosive that it's fairly easy for him to float past opponents and drop in a layup or to launch his unusually-effective 10-foot floater or to pull up for the J while an opponent watches helplessly from the other side of the screen. Alas, none of those maneuvers get him to the line, and the next time Rose willfully draws contact to force his way there will be a first.

Contrast that, for instance, with Westbrook's bull-in-a-china-shop approach, and there's no question which one is easier on the eyes. Rose's tactic is less effective on the scoreboard because Westbrook is taking twice as many foul shots every night.

Don't get me wrong, Rose is a spectacular performer and a surefire All-Star. If you're making a list of players you'd pay money to see play, there's no question he's in the top 10. All those graceful plays I just mentioned are far more entertaining than watching somebody shoot two flat-footed 15-footers from the line while the other nine players stand and watch.

Still, it's a less effective way to win basketball games. It seems mundane, as though we're nitpicking, to bemoan Rose's lack of free throws, but it's a notable shortcoming when comparing Rose to the other elite players at his position. Until he earns more whistles, Rose won't ascend to the top of the league's point guard mountain.

I think this is the biggest reason he's not at the line as much as some of the other elite point guards. He could go barreling into the defense and draw a foul, but what he's doing seems to work just as well. And he's not taking the abuse that would wear him down after just a few years in the league.

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I say put this in his locker, and everywhere else that he can see it.

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Interesting. In that great move at the end of the Laker game, he moved away from contact . . . and hit the shot.

Can't this "flaw" be seen as a good thing as well? He may not be drawing fouls and getting to the line, but he is saving his body a lot of abuse?

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

That's db's point.

He gets fouled a hell of alot more than whats called out there

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"You can kill the revolutionary, but you can't kill the revolution."

Must be Deng who's doing all the heavy lifting.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

I'm convinced Deng avoids all forms of human contact. The guy has probably never even had sex.

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Funny, but not true. He is in fact a little creepy in how he attempts to get women. His tactics are probably not too different than other rich athletes that attempt to woo a woman that is not interested. But he still does make the attempt.

The ability to force fouls on the defense is probably a bit more valuable in the playoffs than the regular season, but in either case it means more than just points. When the Heat beat Orlando by 26 the first week of the season, Lebron and Wade repeatedly went at Dwight Howard, got him in foul trouble, limited his minutes and eventually fouled him out.

Sounds like beni has a story. Regale us, beni!

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I agree. And sometimes those fouls are obvious, but Rose still doesn't get the call.

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But Boozer is talking to the officials. He's getting the Bulls those foul calls.

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All information is 100% unreliable.

Have someone very close that would qualify as an attractive femail. She worked at a couple restaurants in the Viagra triangle. Deng would come in at different times, have the fellas (Gordon and some other guy I don't remember) try and get Deng a hookup. My friend not buying it...not interested in ballers. Deng was even worse at trying to close the deal for himself. Deng had a hard time being rejected. Never got physical, but got a little desperate trying to get that date. Kinda felt sorry for the guy. He had no shot.

You could have used these same words to describe Deng driving to the basket and it would have fit perfectly also.

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Scored some courtside seats, eh? nice

well played sir.

Probably not something that the team should address or even worry about during the season, if the guy's succeeding playing his current style, let him play that way and then maybe work on forcing fouls in the off-season.

The way they could address it during the current season is if the Bulls have a chance to pick up an experienced pure point guard with a knack for getting to the foul line late in the game and a decent outside shot (dunno their stats overall or their 4th quarter crunch time stats, but maybe someone along the lines of Derek Fisher or Chauncey Billups) who would take the late game focus off of Rose alone (tho he'd still be the main option) as well as allow the Bulls to slow down games where they are behind by scoring points while the clock's stopped.

I believe Rose is paying Noah to get fouled for him

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I suspect that by the break Rose will start getting more of those calls.

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Second City Saint

Can't make a big free throw

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.