He's just part of the grand ESPN machine that is trying to create a story out of the MVP race. The media doesn't want Rose to run away with it, because that doesn't lead to any interesting articles. The fact is that Rose is a near lock to win this award. Unless Miami makes a run and overtakes the Bulls as the #1 seed, Rose will win.

I look at the race by pretending what each team would be like if you subtracted that player. The Heat would still be a 3rd-5th seed without Lebron on that team. Yes, he is a great player, but Wade would be picking up more of the slack if Lebron was not there. If you subtract Rose from the Bulls, they are probably still a playoff team, but they would probably be somewhere in the 6th-8th range. Including all the injuries they dealt with this season on the front line, they could even be out of the playoffs if Rose wasn't there. That's why I think you have to give it to him.

And you don't have to "pretend." EWA is "estimated wins added," which is a stat that intends to do just that. Rose is 7th.

Does that stat take into account the production that Wade and Bosh are sacrificing simply so Lebron can get his touches? For baseball, that stat (WAR) seems a little more clear cut, but how do you account for some of the teamwork that is built into the game of basketball?

And you don't have to "pretend." EWA is "estimated wins added," which is a stat that intends to do just that. Rose is 7th.

Yea, I mean if you guys have better stats, go ahead and throw them out. I'd be curious.

I'm just not buying how this stat works in the game of basketball. Too many things would change if you take Lebron off that team that statistics can't account for. The whole system the team is running could be different. It's not the same as just plugging someone different in at 2nd base in baseball.

I don't buy those stat lines. Rose has the Bulls at the top of the East (most people thought they would be 4-6) even though the Bulls 2nd and 3rd best players have missed over 60 games. If Bosh and Wade missed a combined 60 games how good would Miami be? I also think it's a lot easier to be efficient when you have 2 all stars playing next to you every game.

Yea, I mean if you guys have better stats, go ahead and throw them out. I'd be curious.

Sort of. It's supposed to be the WAR of basketball:
PER: Player Efficiency Rating is the overall rating of a player's per-minute statistical production. The league average is 15.00 every season.
VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards
EWA: Estimated Wins Added - Value Added divided by 30, giving the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... statistics

The Bulls were picked to finish 4th or 6th before the season started. That prediction was made with the assumption that the Bulls would be healthy. If any said Boozer and Noah would miss a combined 60+ games many people would have thought the Bulls would struggle to make the playoffs.

Yea, I mean if you guys have better stats, go ahead and throw them out. I'd be curious.

That's not really a valid way to prove your point. There will always be a "best statistic" but it doesn't mean it's actually meaningful. That's really my biggest problem with the "statistics revolution" especially in regards to true team sports like basketball and football. Some people act like the best answer they could come up with is actually an answer because there isn't anything better like you did.

EWA seems bad but at least it's less bad than anything else!

I like EWA much more than "Hova & Douchebag's gut feeling." It's definitely better.

I like EWA much more than "Hova & Douchebag's gut feeling." It's definitely better.