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The Chicago Blackhawks goalie Robin Lehner has had a solid season so far in 2020. In the summer he will become a free agent, the question is, how much is Lehner worth?
Before I start, I like Robin Lehner. I would love to see him return as the Chicago Blackhawks‘ starter in 2020-21. Hockey is a business though, and there is a salary cap to abide by.
As I’m playing the role of Blackhawks’ General Manager, I am not aware of any conversations the two parties have had with each other. This is just how I believe the Blackhawks should handle the situation.
Right now, the Blackhawks will have $11,000,000 AAV free from both Corey Crawford and Lehner’s contract expiring this summer. The team will need a starting goalie going into next season. It’s fair to assume Lehner has the better upside, especially when he isn’t even 30 yet.
The rumor for Lehner is that he likes it here in Chicago. He would be open to re-signing with the Blackhawks in the summer. I don’t think the Blackhawks could wait until the summer to re-sign him. If they lose him in the summer, they’ll be goalie-less.
If they were to trade him before the deadline, they’d at least be getting a top draft pick. They might be able to steal a first-round pick from a team on the bubble. If the Blackhawks are smart, they’d go for a 2021 first-round pick, not a 2020 first-round pick.
They’d be trading Lehner to a team that is a goalie away from being a serious contender. They’ll have a better chance of getting a top 10 pick if it was a future pick.
With the $11,000,000 AAV free, how much is Robin Lehner worth? I’ve heard anywhere from $7,500,000 AAV to $9,000,000 AAV. First off, he hasn’t won anything of significance. If two-time Stanley Cup champion Corey Crawford signed a $6,000,000 AAV deal, why would Lehner be paid up to $3,000,000 AAV more? It doesn’t make sense.
It would make more sense for Lehner to be offered a $7,500,000 AAV contract at the most. If they were to go higher, it would have to be a two-year deal max. They’ll have to pay Adam Boqvist and Kirby Dach in the future. They can’t be stuck with a bad contract that closes their championship window.
They’ve already dealt with two bad contracts on the blue-line. Those two players being Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith. In 2020, Keith has stepped up his game. He’s still not worth $5538,462 AAV. Seabrook isn’t worth $6,875,000 AAV either. The worst part about their contracts is their no-movement clauses.
Lehner cannot end up turning into a bad contract. If the Blackhawks wait until the summer to start the contract negotiations, they might end up having to overpay for him. If they overpay for Lehner, it could turn into a bad contract.
I’ll give you an example. Sergei Bobrovsky is getting $10,000,000 AAV a season by the Panthers. The Panthers aren’t even in the playoffs as this article is being written. Bobrovsky hasn’t won any of significance either. He isn’t worth what he is getting paid. He was overpaid.
The Blackhawks already are paying Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane $10,500,000 AAV each. They cannot add anything close to that. If they want to have only three good players, they can overpay for guys. If they want to open up a championship window that will last five to 10 seasons, they’ll have to wait.
I don’t like the idea of trading away Robin Lehner at all. If the Blackhawks cannot come up with a fair deal before the trade deadline, it might be a good idea to ship him off. In fairness to Lehner, I would ship him off to a team that has a chance to win something this season.
If the Blackhawks keep losing, they’ll be out of the playoffs before the end of this poorly started road trip. Instead of praying for a change, selling Lehner could be their best move.
The Blackhawks could get a future first-round draft choice for Lehner. The keyword is FUTURE. It would be a mistake to trade for a 2020 draft choice. Let’s say Lehner gets traded to a team that is hopeful and they win the Stanley Cup. The Blackhawks would be getting the 31st choice in the draft.
If they get a 2021 or even 2022 draft choice for him, they could be getting a top 10 pick.
The Blackhawks might be getting ready to throw the towel in on the 2020 season. If they cannot turn things around for good, things will get tough for the team. They have a bright future but they really should be making the playoffs this season. They’ve played well enough for it.
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