So we talked a little bit about adjusted record (Points - [SO wins + OT losses]) in the LA thread, and how this can give you a better idea of how many games teams are actually winning, losing, or tying with rampant point inflation, a major bugbear of mine. We've also, I'm sure, talked about pythagorean expectation and how it can be applied to hockey as well as baseball.

Something I've been keeping an eye on this season is aggregate real, adjusted, and expected records. By taking into account both the actual NHL standings, the 60- or 65-minute game outcomes, and expectations as per goals scored and allowed, you can get a pretty interesting breakdown of where teams really are in a league where everyone is seemingly in the playoffs or just one point out of 8th.

On the surface, real points percentage should be easy: points earned divided by points possible. But the other consequence of point inflation is that ".500" as we know it is not exactly .500, since there are all these loser points floating about. So the actual ".500" mark for the league is actually leaguewide points earned divided by leaguewide points possible, which fluctuates from day to day based on the day's loser points but generally hovers between .552 and .554. (The 2010 Coyotes went to 20 shootouts and god knows how many overtimes, which pushed that year's midpoint to .561.) So if you're a fan of some 11th place team and you tell yourself "hey, at least we're .500," you are but you kinda aren't. That, after all, is probably why you're in 11th place. So I take that midpoint and subtract it from points percentage.

Adjusted percentage, we went over. Midpoint can only be .500 here, so I subtract that from adjusted%.

Expected percentage is the square (well, ^2.1838 because I read that made a better exponent for NHL) of goals scored divided by the square of goals scored+allowed, but shootout goals scored and allowed aren't figured in. Again, expected% minus .500.

So you add these three up and the number you get tells you how much better or worse than average your team is, by virtue of how many games they won, how/when they're winning them, and by how many goals.

Our friendly neighborhood Blackhawks are 0.676 in points possible, 0.608 adjusted for shootout/overtime, and 0.579 expected by goals scored/allowed. This makes sense: the Hawks have gone 4-3 in the shootout with an overtime loss, so they're not WINNING games as much as they seem. Also, their scoring differential is a lot tighter than it should be, probably because of those seven regulation/overtime ties, one-goal overtime wins, and that Oilers loss. So while they're not the best team in the league like the 50 points would tell you, they're still a pretty decent club.

Coming into today, my handy excel spreadsheet tells me this:
1 Boston 0.641
2 New York 0.464
3 Vancouver 0.429
4 Detroit 0.415
5 Philadelphia 0.343
6 St. Louis 0.338
7 Chicago 0.309
8 Pittsburgh 0.234
9 San Jose 0.158
10 Minnesota 0.113
11 Florida 0.095
12 Washington 0.013
13 Dallas 0.003
14 Winnipeg -0.016
15 Nashville -0.024
16 Toronto -0.059
17 Phoenix -0.070
18 Los Angeles -0.074
19 Calgary -0.086
20 New Jersey -0.087
21 Buffalo -0.136
22 Edmonton -0.145
23 Ottawa -0.154
24 Colorado -0.169
25 Montreal -0.205
26 Tampa Bay -0.228
27 Carolina -0.411
28 Long Island -0.462
29 Anaheim -0.542
30 Columbus -0.595

You can go ahead and graph this--and believe me, I have!--which will demonstrate that there are the Bruins, eight other contenders (among them, the Hawks), and a steep dropoff into a Blob of Mediocrity, which in turns gives way to a basement occupied by the eminently awful Islanders, Hurricanes, Ducks, and Jackets. For a while there, the dropoff between 29th and the Jackets' 30th was so steep that you could probably fit the Chicago Wolves in there somewhere. They were that bad relative to the rest of the NHL.

SO ANYWAY. The Red Wings.

Carcillo in, Kruger out, Jimmy Hayes up from RFD.
Holmstrom out for Detroit
Crawford vs. Howard, Howard has been really good this year.

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Good way to start the weekend.

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When I am stuck and need to figure something out I always remember the Immortal words of Socrates when he said:"I just drank what?"

If that shitbird Cleary scores on us like he always does, I swear I'm gonna punch an inanimate object.

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welp

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I can't watch the game as I am in the hellhole that is urbana/chanpaign without cable, so I shall be living the game through the pain of you, curious hair... make me proud...

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team Mully & Hanley
team Meatpants

Toews scores on the penalty shot. Karmic retribution for the Mike Richards dive.

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Toews drew two penalties on Lidstrom in one period. First one was a penalty shot, second one came with 16 seconds on the clock, which means 1:44 of clean ice. Gotta make something happen.

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They didn't! Two straight penalty kills for the Wings and fuckface Bertuzzi scores on a Commodore redirect. Go figure.

Hawks look straight-up outnumbered on every shift; ironic for a team that seemingly gets dinged for TMMOTI more than anyone.

EDIT: HOSSA

EDIT2: Yelled "WHOA!" on the Seabrook slapper before it even went in. Would've been a thing of beauty either way.

One-goal lead isn't gonna hold for 18 minutes against the Wings, though. Can't stop.

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Oops

Love it when we beat Detroit. Love it even more when Bertuzzi takes it up the ass (well, at least under the eye )

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Not a mult.