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Big Ten Outlook by Hawkeye Vince
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Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Aug 30, 2007 12:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Big Ten Outlook by Hawkeye Vince
OK, I promised this so I will do an abbreviated version

The Big Ten in 2007/08 predictions (corrected 8/31/07)

T1. Michigan (11-1, 7-1 Big Ten)
Strengths: This team is full of offensive weapons with Henne, Hart, Manningham and Arrington.
Weaknesses: The defense loses 7 starters from an excellent unit in 2006, including 3 from the front line. They will have time to grow into the season since the big contests against Wisconsin and OSU aren't til later in the schedule.

T1. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1 Big Ten)
Strengths: The offense should continue to move along well with PJ Hill, top receivers and most of the offense line back. The defense should be good again with 7 starters returning.
Weaknesses: If Wisconsin has to rely on the QB to win games, they may be in trouble. Donovan was an optionQB in HS and had good games last year but he's really never been in a situation that he had to win a game singlehandedly. He's also looking over the shoulder. The loss of Joe Thomas hurts the left side of the O Line, but Wisconsin will produce another quality LT.

T3. Penn State (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten)
Strengths: Morelli came to PSU as a top recruit. He started last season for the 9 win Lions and should build from that with incredible depth at receiver and a talented RB in Scott. The defense will be led by the back 7 with Dan Connor getting most of the accolades. Scirotto is in some legal trouble but is expected to play.
Weaknesses: Morelli had a subpar season last year. If he doesn't make the step up to the next level, this team goes from a 10 win team to a 7 or 8 win team quickly. The OL replaces both tackles and DL replaces 3 starters from last year.

T3. Ohio State (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten)
Strengths: This team will rely on the defense as they have in the past to carry this team. Jenkins and Laurinitis will be the stalwarts that everyone keys in on. On offense, the running game should make up for the potential lack of production at the QB position.
Weaknesses: There is a severe drop off from Troy Smith to Todd Boeckman. Boeckman has a gun but he's not going to be able to make the plays with his feet. The receivers will also see a dropoff with the loss of Ginn and Gonzalez to the NFL.

T5. Iowa (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten)
Strenghts: Schedule. They don't play Michigan or Ohio State this year. Also, they bring back most of the front 7 on defense who played well in flashes last season.
Weaknesses: Depth. Last year injuries killed the Hawkeyes. If they lose a few key players, they could be another 6-6 team.

T5. Purdue (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten)
Strengths: The explosive offense led by Painter should score at will on many teams on their schedule....
Weaknesses: but if they don't, the defense won't stop anyone. If they can grow up in a hurry, this could be a top team in the Big Ten.

T7. Northwestern (6-6, 2-6 Big Ten)
Strengths: They have a QB in place in Bacher who seems to show good decision making but needs to work on his interceptions. Sutton will be the man in Evanston this year. The defensive line should improve from the year on the field and off season in the weight room.
Weaknesses: This team is still incredibly young. They need to be more consistent scoring as well. Last year they had tough time moving the ball consistently.

T7. Indiana (6-6, 2-6 Big Ten)
Strengths: Lewis to hardy. Lewis to Hardy. Thigpen returning kicks. Austin Starr is a pretty solid kicker.
Weaknesses: The defense was pretty bad and lost alot of the starters. This could be good but could also be bad (why didnt the backups get to start if they were so awful). The loss of Hoeppner is also a negative and will put a bit of a downspin to the start of the season.

T7. Michigan State (4-8, 2-6 Big Ten)
Strengths: The defense will be much improved with new coach D'Antonio. Having worked with OSU, I would assume more blitz packages will be used to pressure opposing QBs. The special teams will be strong.
Weaknesses: The skill positions on offense are lacking with a new QB starting and having to replace all of their top wideouts.

T10. Illinois ( 3-9, 1-7 Big Ten)
Strengths: Zook returns alot of highly recruited starters. If they can turn the corner, who knows what the ceiling is for this team. Looking back at 2006, they do have quality on defense with J Leman anchoring the unit last season with 150+ tackles. They will continue to get better.
Weaknesses: This season hedges on the development of Juice Williams. If he steps up and can complete 55% of his passes, I am way off with 3 wins. If he continues to be in the 40% range, 3 wins is being generous.

T10. Minnesota (5-7, 1-7 Big Ten)
Strengths: The skill positions on offense seem to be in good hands with Ernie Wheelwright at WR and Amir Pinnix running the ball. The defense will get pressure on opposing QBs but typically not enough to stop the bleeding in the secondary.
Weaknesses:
Brewster is going to the spread offense which could surprise teams at first but depends on solid QB decision making and accuracy. With a new starting QB, it's up for debate if they will be able to run it effectively. On defense, the back line is weak in coverage so if they don't get effective pressure up front, they will be exposed again.
Author:  Darren - Tinley Park [ Thu Aug 30, 2007 2:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Big Ten Outlook by Hawkeye Vince
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
T10. Illinois ( 3-9, 1-7 Big Ten)
Strengths: Zook returns alot of highly recruited starters. If they can turn the corner, who knows what the ceiling is for this team. Looking back at 2006, they do have quality on defense with J Leman anchoring the unit last season with 150+ tackles. They will continue to get better.
Weaknesses: This season hedges on the development of Juice Williams. If he steps up and can complete 55% of his passes, I am way off with 3 wins. If he continues to be in the 40% range, 3 wins is being generous.

BOOOOOO!!!! :evil:
Who is their one win against - Indiana or Northwestern?
Author:  sportsfan [ Thu Aug 30, 2007 3:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
What are you smoking, Vince. What SIX teams do you see NU losing to? Iowa? Oh forgot that the YOUNG team beat the hawkeye last year!
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Aug 30, 2007 4:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
NSJ wrote:
What are you smoking, Vince. What SIX teams do you see NU losing to? Iowa? Oh forgot that the YOUNG team beat the hawkeye last year!


If you want to know, I see NU losing all of their road games in the Big ten (MSU, IL, Purdue, OSU) and then losing to Iowa and Michigan.

I can see them beating IL and Iowa but it was a gut feel that they would struggle on the road.


Someone above asked about Illinois - I predicted them beating Northwestern. They had quite a few swing games for them that could go either way and I sided with Juice not developing enough. Those include @ Minnesota, @ Indiana.

In the end, opinions are like assholes....
Author:  Brick [ Fri Aug 31, 2007 3:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
Good predictions. I think that Penn State is too high, but Morelli will probably make me look like an idiot. I don't think he is going to do very well this year.

I can't wait for the season to start, even if it starts with me sitting on a couch watching the game.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Good predictions. I think that Penn State is too high, but Morelli will probably make me look like an idiot. I don't think he is going to do very well this year.

I can't wait for the season to start, even if it starts with me sitting on a couch watching the game.


The biggest things I questioned myself on were:

1. The Big Ten Records - you never see that big of a difference in records (no 500 clubs or 3-5 teams). If I underestimated any teams, it would likely be Indiana or Northwestern.

2. Ohio State/Michigan/Wisconsin/Penn State and how they play out their games. I think for the record I had OSU losing @Penn State and @ Michigan. Michigan losing @ Wisconsin. Wisconsin losing @ Ohio State. Penn State losing to Wisconsin and @ Michigan.

3. Development of QB's - I didnt see Juice taking the next step and Morelli taking it. It might be the other way around.

4. If you were wondering Rick, my predictions had Purdue losing against the 'Big 3' .
Author:  Brick [ Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:33 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
4. If you were wondering Rick, my predictions had Purdue losing against the 'Big 3' .


I think Michigan and Penn State beat Purdue but I think Ohio State gets beat by Purdue. Purdue will lose a game to another team(Iowa?).

You did have a lot of top heavy records in the Big Ten, but when making predictions we would have to drop Purdue and Iowa since Michigan, Wisconsin, and OSU are going to find a way to win a ton of games.

I'm not sold on Penn State as you can tell.
Author:  Badger Vince [ Wed Sep 05, 2007 12:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think a couple of points need to be made about the recruiting and coaching. There is a great deal that needs to be said about the fact that some teams may not be on the top of the recruiting board, but the coaching of the players that come to play day in and day out means a lot.
You can't grade heart and guts. I think we'll see a few surprises at the end of the year based on coaching. Who will get the most out of the players they have at not only the "talent" positions, but also the guys in the trenches.

Can you imagine what a few of the coaches in the Big Ten would produce if they had the recruiting classes of Florida, USC, Texas etc.? I get a great deal of pleasure watching Iowa and Wisconsin to name 2 , coach up kids that dream of getting a chance to play Division 1 footbal and become better players and men because of the coaches they play under. Anyone can root for the teams that will always get the best recruits, but it takes someone very special to get the best out of less talented players and still put up winning numbers.

Off my stool with one more comment about coaching. I think Ron English will be one of those coaches and if he gets the recruits and he will that Michigan always gets look out. We'll miss you Lloyd!
Author:  Brick [ Wed Sep 05, 2007 12:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
The downturn of Purdue football the past two years was directly correlated to the two best recruiting classes in the Joe Tiller era. I think Iowa had the same problem as everyone thinks recruits with high star rankings will be the golden ticket to championships. I saw an interesting statistic. For the last 5 years, every recruiting class that GT has had was ranked lower(and in some cases much lower) than Notre Dame's class.

It's not about winning the recruiting season, but winning during the season with players that fit with what you want to do.
Author:  sportsfan [ Wed Sep 05, 2007 12:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
So you still have Michigan winning the Big 10, Vince?
Author:  Badger Vince [ Wed Sep 05, 2007 1:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
This Vince picked the Badgers.
On the other post here.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Wed Sep 05, 2007 2:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
NSJ wrote:
So you still have Michigan winning the Big 10, Vince?


Well, if I could change my predictions I would take MI off of there, but I still think they could be a 10-2 team and share the Big Ten title.
Author:  Badger Vince [ Wed Sep 05, 2007 5:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Heard from a far.....
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting
the hell kicked out of you."
Woody Hayes / Ohio State

Who is he talking about ya suppose?!
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Sun Nov 18, 2007 12:35 am ]
Post subject: 
NSJ wrote:
What are you smoking, Vince. What SIX teams do you see NU losing to? Iowa? Oh forgot that the YOUNG team beat the hawkeye last year!


I guess I wasn't nuts with that.....

I'm going to summarize where I was right and where I was dead wrong
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
Where I was right:

1. Iowa was injuries away from a 6-6 year. Iowa was banged up all year and suffered on offense.
2. Iowa would beat Illinois and Northwestern ;-)
3. Indiana would be bowl eligible this year.
4. Minnesota would suck (though I gave them way too much credit in the non conference games)

Where I was really wrong:
1. Illinois. I did hedge that Juice wouldn't develop, but he played well enough to get them to a Jan 1 bowl.
2. Purdue - I think a lot of people thought this team had enough moxie to win 9 and battle for the Big Ten Title. I'm sure Rick would agree with this.
3. Wisconsin winning the Big Ten. While 9-3 is good, I'm sure many Badger fans had this team pegged for the BCS and not looking at an Outback or Alamo Bowl birth.
4. Ohio State - while I was off by one win, I didn't see this being the year for the Buckeyes to win the big ten and compete for a national title. They will be scary next year.
Author:  Brick [ Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
Purdue is a fraud. They are either a talented team who underachieves or they have overrated talent who just flat aren't as good as they seem.

The last two games were pathetic. If there isn't a change in the head coach then this team won't go to a bowl game next year(just look at the schedule).

I'm not a big money donor but for the first time I have sent two emails to him voicing my concerns. The next week should be interesting Some type of action needs to be taken.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
In Iowa City, I am hoping for change, but don't expect it. Kirk suffers from Dick Jauron disease - keep the faithful assistants as long as they are standing.
Author:  Brick [ Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:07 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
In Iowa City, I am hoping for change, but don't expect it. Kirk suffers from Dick Jauron disease - keep the faithful assistants as long as they are standing.


How quickly things have changed. Before the season I would have defended Tiller against anyone. Now I think it's over with and we will go nothing but down.

I am sure you would have done the same with Ferentz.

The difference is that Ferentz is younger. The fact that Joe Tiller is approaching retirement age will hurt(and has hurt) in recruiting.

Iowa will be better than Purdue next year, but that isn't saying much.

At least the Bears are good this year.
Author:  Brick [ Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think I'm done with football for the year.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
In Iowa City, I am hoping for change, but don't expect it. Kirk suffers from Dick Jauron disease - keep the faithful assistants as long as they are standing.


How quickly things have changed. Before the season I would have defended Tiller against anyone. Now I think it's over with and we will go nothing but down.

I am sure you would have done the same with Ferentz.

The difference is that Ferentz is younger. The fact that Joe Tiller is approaching retirement age will hurt(and has hurt) in recruiting.

Iowa will be better than Purdue next year, but that isn't saying much.

At least the Bears are good this year.


I haven't given up on Ferentz, but I have given up on his two coordinators. If Ferentz won't make the change, I think you will see fans start to turn on him. Another 6-6 year will not make the Iowa faithful happy.
Author:  Irish Boy [ Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
Everything is rainbows and chocolate-covered sprinkles in Illini country. I'm just hoping that Mendenhall returns for one more season. If he does, Illinois whould be the class of the Big 10.
Author:  Peter Puck [ Mon Nov 19, 2007 10:59 am ]
Post subject: 
Irish Boy wrote:
Everything is rainbows and chocolate-covered sprinkles in Illini country. I'm just hoping that Mendenhall returns for one more season. If he does, Illinois whould be the class of the Big 10.


It is possible that while they may be better next year, the Illini will have a worse record given next year's schedule.

I'm sorry, but am I the only one thinking that Pat Fitzgerald does not have a clue? I really do not know what was the point of NU's offensive game plan on Sat. No Vontae Davis and you are not airing it out down field?
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