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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:38 am 
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denisdman wrote:
Ogie Oglethorpe wrote:

I am still in my (late) 20s so I'm just throwing everything into S&P 500 index funds and figure I'll average 8% for the next 35 years and I should have a nest egg to retire on.


Just a small piece of advice. S&P 500 Index funds are great. But that is mainly large cap domestic equities in style. I would recommend putting 40% in that. Take 30% into international (good value now with the dollar strong and weak markets overseas) and the balance of the 30% in domestic small and/or mid caps.

You can't go wrong with the S&P 500 Index, but it is not broad enough to capture all of the parts of the markets. Small caps have been very hot, so you missed that massive rally. Eventually international will come back strong. But you want to capture all of that over your career.

I used to think 8% (even 11-12% which is the longer term average) was a given, but I have taken my expectations down to 6-7% prospectively. Inflation and real interest rates are lower than any one every thought possible. Inflation is also very low, so market returns are following.

I also love threads like this. Investing is my passion.


What you say is consistent with what they say here: http://adviseronline.investorplace.com/about/ -- a non-affiliated subscription service covering Vanguard funds.

Here is their model growth portfolio:

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:59 am 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
denisdman wrote:
People don't have a $500 bill because of the simplest concept- spend less than you earn. In fact it's worse, many people over consume by using credit card and other types of debt to live beyond their income level. They get buried fast.

Our schools don't teach much in the way of basic financial management. Even our smart students bury themselves in debt because they don't understand cost/benefit calculations.

I'll check out zero hedge.


I get what you are saying, but it's beyond that. Rents, healthcare and other expenses have risen much higher than inflation.


Many things have outpaced inflation, and more importantly wage gains. However, lots of stuff has come down or grown slower than inflation- consumer electronics (tvs/PC's), gas, food, clothes. There is very little inflation in those segments. Heck, the dairy farmers were begging for a bailout on cheese recently.

Regardless, it all comes down to living within one's means. My wife and I were just talking about the days when we both worked full time, and I went to grad school full time. I recalled paying all the bills and having $70 left in our checking account. Undergrad was even worse as I was flat broke. We have always been proud (and fortunate) that everything was paid for on time and in full. Many are going to land in unfortunate circumstances, severe illness or job loss for example. I get that stuff. But others have financial problems of their own making by prioritizing spending over necessary stuff.

If you listened to the most recent CFMB podcast, Chus talked about not going out to eat to make it on one income. That dude earned my respect a 1,000 times over. The guy gets it. I have two siblings who have done 180 complete financial turnarounds, and it warms my heart to see them with financial freedom.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:01 am 
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a retard wrote:

What you say is consistent with what they say here: http://adviseronline.investorplace.com/about/ -- a non-affiliated subscription service covering Vanguard funds.


You need to change your screen name. You are definitely not "a retard".

Well Vanguard is the best investor focused mutual fund house. They have forced every other shop to revisit their cost structures. When in doubt, go with Vanguard index or age target funds.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:10 am 
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denisdman wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
denisdman wrote:
People don't have a $500 bill because of the simplest concept- spend less than you earn. In fact it's worse, many people over consume by using credit card and other types of debt to live beyond their income level. They get buried fast.

Our schools don't teach much in the way of basic financial management. Even our smart students bury themselves in debt because they don't understand cost/benefit calculations.

I'll check out zero hedge.


I get what you are saying, but it's beyond that. Rents, healthcare and other expenses have risen much higher than inflation.


Many things have outpaced inflation, and more importantly wage gains. However, lots of stuff has come down or grown slower than inflation- consumer electronics (tvs/PC's), gas, food, clothes. There is very little inflation in those segments. Heck, the dairy farmers were begging for a bailout on cheese recently.

Regardless, it all comes down to living within one's means. My wife and I were just talking about the days when we both worked full time, and I went to grad school full time. I recalled paying all the bills and having $70 left in our checking account. Undergrad was even worse as I was flat broke. We have always been proud (and fortunate) that everything was paid for on time and in full. Many are going to land in unfortunate circumstances, severe illness or job loss for example. I get that stuff. But others have financial problems of their own making by prioritizing spending over necessary stuff.

If you listened to the most recent CFMB podcast, Chus talked about not going out to eat to make it on one income. That dude earned my respect a 1,000 times over. The guy gets it. I have two siblings who have done 180 complete financial turnarounds, and it warms my heart to see them with financial freedom.


I get what you are saying, but these are peers with (supposedly) skills and connections. I am talking about people who work in retail or the service industry. Try telling them to diversify their portfolio or to "live within their means" while paying for rent, job training, healthcare and transportation. It's a different world, and there are still only at around 30 percent of the population with a 4-year college degree.

Saying live within your means and consider long term investments to this group of people is pretty harsh, and I don't believe it's going to get better. Their types of jobs will be automated.

One last thing, I don't think it's a good thing when a family on a single salary has to make the decision to never go out to eat.

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Last edited by WaitingforRuffcorn on Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:18 am 
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Put all your money on the minted coins you see on commercials late at night. They limit the amount you can order but they only set the limit once a day so you can call every day for a week and clear at least 70 of them when they are released.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:19 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Put all your money on the minted coins you see on commercials late at night. They limit the amount you can order but they only set the limit once a day so you can call every day for a week and clear at least 70 of them when they are released.


make sure you keep the cerificates of authenticity


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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:22 am 
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Yeah, I get all the stuff about living within our means, but our society heavily encourages us to live beyond them, and resisting that isn't easy -- if it were, you get the sense the whole machine would shut down.

Good analysis (I think) from Matt Bruenig on Dow 20,000:

https://medium.com/@MattBruenig/who-gai ... .a208mqx03

Quote:
But only 52 percent of Americans have money in the stock market, matching the lowest rate in 19 years, according to a Gallup Poll from April. In 2007, according to that same poll, 65 percent reported investing in the market. Based on those Gallup numbers, many Americans lost faith in the market at exactly the wrong time — just as it was staging a powerful comeback.

Looking at the number of Americans who own stock does not tell the whole story. To get the complete picture, it is necessary to determine how stock assets are distributed overall.

I used the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances to calculate the distribution of equity assets broken down by equity deciles.

Image

The top 10% hold 86.8% of all the equity. The next 10% owns 9.5% of all the equity. The rest own little to none of the equity.


:/

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:23 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Put all your money on the minted coins you see on commercials late at night. They limit the amount you can order but they only set the limit once a day so you can call every day for a week and clear at least 70 of them when they are released.


I prefer 9/11 Anniversary $2 bills, but to each their own.

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Why are only 14 percent of black CPS 11th-graders proficient in English?

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For instance they were never taught that Columbus was a slave owner.


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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:12 am 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:

I get what you are saying, but these are peers with (supposedly) skills and connections. I am talking about people who work in retail or the service industry. Try telling them to diversify their portfolio or to "live within their means" while paying for rent, job training, healthcare and transportation. It's a different world, and there are still only at around 30 percent of the population with a 4-year college degree.

Saying live within your means and consider long term investments to this group of people is pretty harsh, and I don't believe it's going to get better. Their types of jobs will be automated.

One last thing, I don't think it's a good thing when a family on a single salary has to make the decision to never go out to eat.


I too enjoy this discussion. Sure it is not a level playing field but that does not mean there aren't things one can do to try to level it a bit more:

* Do not smoke.
* Take care of your body.
* Show up to work. Do your best.
* Do not get involved in unhealthy relationships.
* Live below your means.
* Except for a home (and maybe a car) do not buy anything on time.
* Pay yourself first.
* Give something back. Some combination of your time, talent, and treasure.

While there is no guarantee one can avoid some or all of the financial disaster trifecta of illness, job loss and divorce, one can at least try to improve their odds.

Oh and by the way I have worked in the service industry my entire life.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:16 am 
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Bagels wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Put all your money on the minted coins you see on commercials late at night. They limit the amount you can order but they only set the limit once a day so you can call every day for a week and clear at least 70 of them when they are released.


make sure you keep the cerificates of authenticity


Store them with your baseball cards.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:17 am 
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a retard wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:

I get what you are saying, but these are peers with (supposedly) skills and connections. I am talking about people who work in retail or the service industry. Try telling them to diversify their portfolio or to "live within their means" while paying for rent, job training, healthcare and transportation. It's a different world, and there are still only at around 30 percent of the population with a 4-year college degree.

Saying live within your means and consider long term investments to this group of people is pretty harsh, and I don't believe it's going to get better. Their types of jobs will be automated.

One last thing, I don't think it's a good thing when a family on a single salary has to make the decision to never go out to eat.


I too enjoy this discussion. Sure it is not a level playing field but that does not mean there aren't things one can do to try to level it a bit more:

* Do not smoke.
* Take care of your body.
* Show up to work. Do your best.
* Do not get involved in unhealthy relationships.
* Live below your means.
* Except for a home (and maybe a car) do not buy anything on time.
* Pay yourself first.
* Give something back. Some combination of your time, talent, and treasure.

While there is no guarantee one can avoid some or all of the financial disaster trifecta of illness, job loss and divorce, one can at least try to improve their odds.

Oh and by the way I have worked in the service industry my entire life.


You are going to be labeled a hater and insensitive right wing nut talking like that.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:39 am 
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pittmike wrote:
a retard wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:

I get what you are saying, but these are peers with (supposedly) skills and connections. I am talking about people who work in retail or the service industry. Try telling them to diversify their portfolio or to "live within their means" while paying for rent, job training, healthcare and transportation. It's a different world, and there are still only at around 30 percent of the population with a 4-year college degree.

Saying live within your means and consider long term investments to this group of people is pretty harsh, and I don't believe it's going to get better. Their types of jobs will be automated.

One last thing, I don't think it's a good thing when a family on a single salary has to make the decision to never go out to eat.


I too enjoy this discussion. Sure it is not a level playing field but that does not mean there aren't things one can do to try to level it a bit more:

* Do not smoke.
* Take care of your body.
* Show up to work. Do your best.
* Do not get involved in unhealthy relationships.
* Live below your means.
* Except for a home (and maybe a car) do not buy anything on time.
* Pay yourself first.
* Give something back. Some combination of your time, talent, and treasure.

While there is no guarantee one can avoid some or all of the financial disaster trifecta of illness, job loss and divorce, one can at least try to improve their odds.

Oh and by the way I have worked in the service industry my entire life.


You are going to be labeled a hater and insensitive right wing nut talking like that.


There was an earlier article from Curious Hair that shows how well this is working for everyone.

Your "means" can change in a minute barring job loss, illness or relationship status. What's an "unhealthy relationship"? And can you tell people a certain way to avoid one?

Statistic after statistic shows that people are working longer hours more productively for less money. Machines are getting better and that will not change. So we can tell ourselves that if we "live within our means" everything is going to work out great, or we can face it that it is not working for roughly half the population and a storm is on the horizon when automation starts the inevitable. Trump was not elected because people are happy with their lives.

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Why are only 14 percent of black CPS 11th-graders proficient in English?

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:51 am 
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I have lived on both sides of this. Making almost nothing and my folks asking me how much I've put away when I couldn't afford to get my new prescription for lenses to being very stable and able to stash away retirement funds. Its never easy on that bottom end and I had a lot of help from family to keep me afloat. At the same time I have watched family get bailed out by others and continue to spend way beyond their means when their means could cover a nice life, just maybe not 52 concerts a year and a deluxe package from comcast and going out to eat 5 times a week. Easy to change lifestyle to put away money at this level, hard as someone working a job as a clerk at the grocery store making a less than 20k a year.


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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:46 pm 
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Drunk Squirrel wrote:
I have lived on both sides of this. Making almost nothing and my folks asking me how much I've put away when I couldn't afford to get my new prescription for lenses to being very stable and able to stash away retirement funds. Its never easy on that bottom end and I had a lot of help from family to keep me afloat. At the same time I have watched family get bailed out by others and continue to spend way beyond their means when their means could cover a nice life, just maybe not 52 concerts a year and a deluxe package from comcast and going out to eat 5 times a week. Easy to change lifestyle to put away money at this level, hard as someone working a job as a clerk at the grocery store making a less than 20k a year.
There are jobs that literally don't pay a living wage and many people say "Not all jobs should pay a livable wage!". It kinds of puts all this "advice" in perspective.

There is not a single one of us that would be funding retirement savings if we were trying to live on the minimum wage.

It's not like all poor people have the same "no savings" hereditary gene.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:57 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
a retard wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:

I get what you are saying, but these are peers with (supposedly) skills and connections. I am talking about people who work in retail or the service industry. Try telling them to diversify their portfolio or to "live within their means" while paying for rent, job training, healthcare and transportation. It's a different world, and there are still only at around 30 percent of the population with a 4-year college degree.

Saying live within your means and consider long term investments to this group of people is pretty harsh, and I don't believe it's going to get better. Their types of jobs will be automated.

One last thing, I don't think it's a good thing when a family on a single salary has to make the decision to never go out to eat.


I too enjoy this discussion. Sure it is not a level playing field but that does not mean there aren't things one can do to try to level it a bit more:

* Do not smoke.
* Take care of your body.
* Show up to work. Do your best.
* Do not get involved in unhealthy relationships.
* Live below your means.
* Except for a home (and maybe a car) do not buy anything on time.
* Pay yourself first.
* Give something back. Some combination of your time, talent, and treasure.

While there is no guarantee one can avoid some or all of the financial disaster trifecta of illness, job loss and divorce, one can at least try to improve their odds.

Oh and by the way I have worked in the service industry my entire life.


You are going to be labeled a hater and insensitive right wing nut talking like that.


This is just stupid and lazy. You are better than that.

Again the word "hater" appears.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:21 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Drunk Squirrel wrote:
I have lived on both sides of this. Making almost nothing and my folks asking me how much I've put away when I couldn't afford to get my new prescription for lenses to being very stable and able to stash away retirement funds. Its never easy on that bottom end and I had a lot of help from family to keep me afloat. At the same time I have watched family get bailed out by others and continue to spend way beyond their means when their means could cover a nice life, just maybe not 52 concerts a year and a deluxe package from comcast and going out to eat 5 times a week. Easy to change lifestyle to put away money at this level, hard as someone working a job as a clerk at the grocery store making a less than 20k a year.
There are jobs that literally don't pay a living wage and many people say "Not all jobs should pay a livable wage!". It kinds of puts all this "advice" in perspective.

There is not a single one of us that would be funding retirement savings if we were trying to live on the minimum wage.

It's not like all poor people have the same "no savings" hereditary gene.



Livable wage is such a vague term. Out here in the hinterlands 25-30k a year isn't so bad when housing is in the 300-500 a month range. Not going to get rich, two people are working but really, could be worse. When I lived in Evanston in the 90's and was paying a grand a month for a crap apartment and they bumped it to 1100 that 25k would have been a lot tighter. I know my entry level job at the CBOT wasn't exactly making life easy even with two roommates. And no one was putting aside money at those levels of pay either.

I'm not sure you can say statewide 15 dollars an hour is the right thing or 12.50 or 20.. I know, as a business, what I can afford to pay the guy working for me and if minimum went to 15, and I had to adjust to that and pay him comparable to the over minimum we pay now I'd have some thinking to do.


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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:26 pm 
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Drunk Squirrel wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Drunk Squirrel wrote:
I have lived on both sides of this. Making almost nothing and my folks asking me how much I've put away when I couldn't afford to get my new prescription for lenses to being very stable and able to stash away retirement funds. Its never easy on that bottom end and I had a lot of help from family to keep me afloat. At the same time I have watched family get bailed out by others and continue to spend way beyond their means when their means could cover a nice life, just maybe not 52 concerts a year and a deluxe package from comcast and going out to eat 5 times a week. Easy to change lifestyle to put away money at this level, hard as someone working a job as a clerk at the grocery store making a less than 20k a year.
There are jobs that literally don't pay a living wage and many people say "Not all jobs should pay a livable wage!". It kinds of puts all this "advice" in perspective.

There is not a single one of us that would be funding retirement savings if we were trying to live on the minimum wage.

It's not like all poor people have the same "no savings" hereditary gene.



Livable wage is such a vague term. Out here in the hinterlands 25-30k a year isn't so bad when housing is in the 300-500 a month range. Not going to get rich, two people are working but really, could be worse. When I lived in Evanston in the 90's and was paying a grand a month for a crap apartment and they bumped it to 1100 that 25k would have been a lot tighter. I know my entry level job at the CBOT wasn't exactly making life easy even with two roommates. And no one was putting aside money at those levels of pay either.

I'm not sure you can say statewide 15 dollars an hour is the right thing or 12.50 or 20.. I know, as a business, what I can afford to pay the guy working for me and if minimum went to 15, and I had to adjust to that and pay him comparable to the over minimum we pay now I'd have some thinking to do.
How businesses would adjust is a different discussion but the point is it is easy to sit here and say "Cut down and save!" but when the minimum wage is one you can't live on in most areas it is kind of hollow.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:52 pm 
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Chus wrote:
pittmike wrote:
a retard wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:

I get what you are saying, but these are peers with (supposedly) skills and connections. I am talking about people who work in retail or the service industry. Try telling them to diversify their portfolio or to "live within their means" while paying for rent, job training, healthcare and transportation. It's a different world, and there are still only at around 30 percent of the population with a 4-year college degree.

Saying live within your means and consider long term investments to this group of people is pretty harsh, and I don't believe it's going to get better. Their types of jobs will be automated.

One last thing, I don't think it's a good thing when a family on a single salary has to make the decision to never go out to eat.


I too enjoy this discussion. Sure it is not a level playing field but that does not mean there aren't things one can do to try to level it a bit more:

* Do not smoke.
* Take care of your body.
* Show up to work. Do your best.
* Do not get involved in unhealthy relationships.
* Live below your means.
* Except for a home (and maybe a car) do not buy anything on time.
* Pay yourself first.
* Give something back. Some combination of your time, talent, and treasure.

While there is no guarantee one can avoid some or all of the financial disaster trifecta of illness, job loss and divorce, one can at least try to improve their odds.

Oh and by the way I have worked in the service industry my entire life.


You are going to be labeled a hater and insensitive right wing nut talking like that.


This is just stupid and lazy. You are better than that.

Again the word "hater" appears.


I was being sarcastic in this case. But the word hater is fun. It makes your mouth smile when you say it. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:53 pm 
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Warning: Do not go down the Brick livable wage black hole. Warning!

Keep it on track folks stay the course.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:55 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Drunk Squirrel wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Drunk Squirrel wrote:
I have lived on both sides of this. Making almost nothing and my folks asking me how much I've put away when I couldn't afford to get my new prescription for lenses to being very stable and able to stash away retirement funds. Its never easy on that bottom end and I had a lot of help from family to keep me afloat. At the same time I have watched family get bailed out by others and continue to spend way beyond their means when their means could cover a nice life, just maybe not 52 concerts a year and a deluxe package from comcast and going out to eat 5 times a week. Easy to change lifestyle to put away money at this level, hard as someone working a job as a clerk at the grocery store making a less than 20k a year.
There are jobs that literally don't pay a living wage and many people say "Not all jobs should pay a livable wage!". It kinds of puts all this "advice" in perspective.

There is not a single one of us that would be funding retirement savings if we were trying to live on the minimum wage.

It's not like all poor people have the same "no savings" hereditary gene.



Livable wage is such a vague term. Out here in the hinterlands 25-30k a year isn't so bad when housing is in the 300-500 a month range. Not going to get rich, two people are working but really, could be worse. When I lived in Evanston in the 90's and was paying a grand a month for a crap apartment and they bumped it to 1100 that 25k would have been a lot tighter. I know my entry level job at the CBOT wasn't exactly making life easy even with two roommates. And no one was putting aside money at those levels of pay either.

I'm not sure you can say statewide 15 dollars an hour is the right thing or 12.50 or 20.. I know, as a business, what I can afford to pay the guy working for me and if minimum went to 15, and I had to adjust to that and pay him comparable to the over minimum we pay now I'd have some thinking to do.
How businesses would adjust is a different discussion but the point is it is easy to sit here and say "Cut down and save!" but when the minimum wage is one you can't live on in most areas it is kind of hollow.


Seriously most can agree people making 20k per year should not be socking away in their portfolio. Doing without with $50-$100 per month should be reasonable for when your car breaks down or other emergency.

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 Post subject: Re: Dow Passes 20,000
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 2:02 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
Warning: Do not go down the Brick livable wage black hole. Warning!

Keep it on track folks stay the course.

It's important in this discussion. It's easy to tell others what to do and how to help themselves but many simply can't.

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