Huh?

You need to keep in perspective what the argument actually is here. It is about someone saying "The baseball playoffs are a crap shoot". It isn't about two teams being close in skill. It is about all teams having roughly the same chance of winning when it starts. If that is true, unless all teams are equally skilled(and they aren't) then that indicates that skill doesn't really matter and instead it is mostly just a series of coin flips that eventually puts one team as the champion that isn't any more deserving than any other team in terms of how good they actually are.

So, it's very important to establish whether you and others also think that the baseball playoffs are a "crap shoot" or not because if you think that then skill of the teams really doesn't matter. As Don Tiny's Harvard guys said, you could just draw straws for the champion then.

Personally, and this is controversial, I think the best team in the MLB playoffs is much more likely to win than most of the other teams.

As I offered last year though, I'll make a bet with anyone who wants to let me pick half the MLB teams in the playoffs, and if they win the World Series I win and get the money. If none of them do, I'll pay you whatever I would have won + 10%. If the baseball playoffs are a crap shoot that should be a bet that MANY will take.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

If 2003 wasn't a choke (not only within a game, but a series), then I don't know what is.

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And we're also allowed to call you out on your opinions, when you talk out of both sides of your mouth as I pointed out.


I'm also allowed to give ol' Kirkwood a lesson on the glorious season that was the 2005 MLB season. The White Sox were the best team in the American League from Opening Day until they won the World Series. That is a fact.

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Agreed. This concept is apparently completely foreign to some, though. I'm sure George Brett often went 0-for-5 in a game, but Michael Jordan rarely, if ever, scored less than 10 or even 20. Baseball is a game in which weird anomalies play themselves out over time, which is what makes it work.

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116 wins in the regular season. 4 wins in the playoffs.

120 wins.

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That may be an extreme example. I might have some idea. The point remains that you can't tell the difference between Danny Murphy and Babe Ruth over two weeks worth of games.

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Freedom is our Strength.

I didn't really say it wasn't; I just said I don't care, as it's a nebulous term. Ultimately, they lost.

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I believe RPB and I have both stated numerous times that we don't think it's a total crapshoot, but it's closer to a crapshoot than any other sport.

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MUST.BE.BINARY

The problem is that you and him both seemed to have jumped in when I was responding to others who do think it is a crap shoot.

Baseball is a little more random than other sports compared to the regular season but the regular season of MLB also isn't really a true indicator of how good a team is either. Too many call ups and trades happen that allow teams to improve over the season. In most other sports, you don't see that type of thing happen.

The bottom line though is that many people on this board use the randomness/crap shoot stuff as an excuse before the excuse is even needed. If the Cubs are the best team by a wide margin they should be expected to win the World Series.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

May be a poor choice to use this one right now when leash basically agreed with me.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Thanks for explaining it to the lad, TP.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

This thread has morphed into a rerun. I give myself 11% of the blame.

I don't, though. The difference is I'm comfortable saying the team who wins the World Series isn't necessarily the "best" team, but again, who cares? They played the best when it mattered and they are World Series champions. That's the only objective part of the entire discussion.

I am also comfortable saying that the World Series champion "won" the title (whether they are "best" or not) but that it is hard to project a World Series champion because of the level of randomness in the playoffs. It's not an excuse... it's just fact. I don't know why Cubs fans are expected to ignore facts because others think they are making excuses. Should they just ignore reality?

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Yup.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

My point is that the MLB playoffs aren't a crap shoot. You agree.

I know that the "best team" doesn't always win in any sport for a few different reasons.

Most of the time though, the champion is the best team, even if they weren't at all points in the season.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

So we will refer to the 2015 Chicago Cubs as a 100+ win baseball team?

The 2006 Cardinals didn't only win 83 games?

I know you're not a big sports fan Hatchetman, but when you talk about how many wins a team has, you're inherently referring to regular season wins.

The 72 win Bulls, for example.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

I agree that they are not a complete crapshoot.

I do not agree that the champion is usually the "best" team... but they are the team that won the World Series, so to me, it doesn't matter. They have bragging rights, and no one can argue otherwise.

Do you agree that baseball playoffs are subject to more randomness than any other major sport?

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Go crazy.

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Well, I would phrase it that the MLB regular season does not reflect the best team as much as it does in other sports for the reasons I mentioned(more trades, more call ups, more variation in how good a team is as the season goes on).

The Cubs were third place last season in their own division but were trending up with young players some of which weren't even on the team. The Cardinals weren't better because they won a small amount more.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Don Nelson knows.

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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

David Carradine knew

I'll admit - that's a nice way of re-phrasing. I disagree, but it's interesting. You're basically working backwards and saying that no matter what, the winner of the playoffs is the best team so the regular season isn't reflective of the best team. I could buy that on some levels, but not entirely.

I would look at it this way... if you were introduced to a random sport that you'd never seen before, and the way the "champion" of that sport was determined each year was determined first through a random elimination playoff series and then a 100+ game "season" which determined the winner by best record, would you still view it the same way? Would you still say that the team who performed best in the playoff series was the "best team"?

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It would depend on the goal.

If every team showed up on day one of spring training with the goal of having the most regular season wins then that would be the best reflection of it. Right now, every team, even the Cubs, have the goal of winning the World Series.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

they play 162 games to make money not to figure out who the best team is.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

That's a reasonable take, but with the way the game of baseball is structured, I just struggle with it. It's a game that is based almost entirely on the law of large numbers and anomolies being worked out over time, and then the playoffs basically take that philosophy and throw it in a fire.

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I have been blasting Theo's 5 year plan on here for 5 years!

So it's NOT OK to fail after 5 years (3 wasted)!!!!

At least win a pennant.

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favrefan said:"Chris Coghlan isn't gonna pay your rent, Jimmy."

Did you know they arrested the belt he used as an accessory to murder?

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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George