Don Tiny wrote:
The biggest mistake that so many commentators on all sides make is to say that Ukraine's splitting up into two will have disastrous implication for its neighbours and even regional stability. Well, maybe for the western part of Ukraine that would be the case. It is totally dependent on the industrial base in the east and will have to rely on financial support from the European Union, which, it has to be said, is not at all keen on parting with substantial amounts to help out the new people in charge in Kiev.
Meanwhile the pro-Russian east will actually survive that split, using its close economic and political links with its big neighbour. Not that it would be a great scenario, as everyone accepts at the moment, but if the worst came to the worst, it would not be the end of the world for the mostly Russian-speaking south and east.
The main problem with the new interim regime in Kiev, run by people closely linked to the recently released from prison former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko - not the most popular figure in the land by all accounts - is that they have been making all the wrong choices.
Sounds like Putin's holding all the cards: the East has closer ties with Russia, the East has a better economic base and Putin's already started to move his military into those regions (possession's nine-tenths/position of strength/etc).
President Obama earned a reputation as a hell of a poker player during his time in Springfield. We'll see if he can bluff Putin out of Ukraine
Putin has to know that if push came to shove, Obama could wax the floor with the Russian military. Billy Bob and Cletus from the American South and across the USA would line up to volunteer to settle the old score , Russia vs USA, Rocky IV, 1980 Olympics, yadda-yadda, once and for all. We are a very bloodthirsty, warring nation. All an American leader has to do is give us a half-ass reason to kick somebody's ass and we'll do it. Obama needs to start selling his bluff by starting to sell war with Putin to the American people--isn't that what Reagan ultimately did? bluffed the USSR out of existence by appearing to be so ready to scrap that they spent themselves into collapse trying to counter him.
Nas' point about not welching on our commitment to Ukraine to defend in the absence of nuclear weapons is a great starting point. If Dubya could sell us on invading Iraq due to some Saudis supposedly taking out the WTC (Pete Carroll says it didn't happen that way), selling the USA on punching Putin in the mouth should be a no-brainer for the current White House brain-trust.
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