Grab this stone from my hand,my ass.

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favrefan said:"Chris Coghlan isn't gonna pay your rent, Jimmy."

Sounds like a line from an unpublished Shakespeare play.

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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

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They were nice enough to spell that out clearly in the first sentence.

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Poster most likely to have tried illegally recording a Doobie Brother's concert?

doesn't that blow the "bites at the apple theory" out of the water?

If you have a 1:10 chance each time you enter the playoffs, your chances of winning the world series do not increase the more often you get to the playoffs. They remain 1:10.

Doesn't that also discredit tanking philosophy as "Theo can put an 88 win team together in his sleep" which is good enough to get you into the playoffs most years?

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Umm... math is hard?

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then do the math

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

If the Cubs make it to the playoffs just once and there are ten teams (an oversimplificstion with the Wild Card play-in but the philosophy is the same), their odds of winning the WS are 10%. However, if the Cubs make the playoffs five years, with a 10% chance each year, the probability of winning the WS jumps to just over 40%.

http://stattrek.com/m/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

If you were betting red on the roulette wheel, would you rather have one spin to hit red or 100 spins?

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It does not matter.

Each time you spin it is the same value.

Kirkwood, you are a numbers man. Explain this to me.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

thanks for the link to a site that advertises money laundering assistance

You got any good beheading videos for the weekend?

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Mine just has an advertisement for Binny's and Hilton. What info is it pulling off your computer to think you'd be interested in money laundering?

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Don't ask for information it would be a burden for you to know

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

It doesn't take a numbers man. Your assertion would only be correct if the Cubs were required to win the WS every time they made the playoffs. We are saying that getting into the playoffs multiple years increases your odds of winning it at least once.

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No, there are 5 World Series to win in the next 5 years. 10 teams make the playoffs each year. Let's ignore the fact that four of them play in a one game playoff that lessens each of those team's chances.

5/50 > 1/50

So "more bites at the apple" logic still works, as the goal is winning one (or more) World Series.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

A lot of guys using this thread to take a shot at one of the 3 highest IQs.

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Freedom is our Strength.

Goddammit, I was waiting for the right time to link that thread.

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1 Spin - 44.74% chance of hitting red once
2 Spin - 75% chance of hitting red once
3 Spin - 87.5% chance of hitting red once
...
...
100 Spin - ~100% chance of hitting red once

Thanks but I'm ok with the comments against me.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

To clarify for the Dolph, that's just under 100%. No matter how many times you spun it, you'd never have 100% chance exactly.

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I don't think you could say the Cubs choke unless they either:

1. Blow this lead and don't make the playoffs,
2. Choke away a playoff series after being up 3-1 or 3-0.
3. Blow a big lead in game 7 of a playoff series.

I would say that not getting to the WS would be a disappointment for the season.

Cubs fans hedging all over the place in this thread.

I guess the goal really is just to be competitive.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

WW - (1/10)*(1/10) = 1/100 = 1.0%
WL - (1/10)*(9/10) = 9/100 = 9.0%
LW - (9/10)*(1/10) = 9/100 = 9.0%
LL - (9/10)*(9/10) = 81/100 = 81.0%

One Win - 19%
No Wins - 81%

Two Appearances = +9% in chances

Continue for however many years you please

Bites at the apple is how their leader Bernsie put it.

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Elections have consequences.

Reminds me of how I say that buying 10 lotto tickets doesn't really give you a statistical advantage over buying 1 ticket.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

It of course is more advantageous, but that advantage is 'statistically insignificant' (until you theoretically buy a cartoonish amount of tickets).

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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

Leader of who?

You have to break down the 100% by team. The top team probably has like 20% chance

Everyone on the Cubbie Fan Party Bandwagon. Who or whom?

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Elections have consequences.

Oh.