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| What are the odds? https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=101687 |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | What are the odds? |
That Trump drops out or is forced out of this? |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: That Trump drops out or is forced out of this? 7:2 against 5:1 if you take only one of the options If the RNC tells him to piss off and he still runs under some other banner, does that still qualify for 'forced out'? |
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| Author: | Phil McCracken [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Pretty telling that Trump Henchmen are already beating the polls/election is rigged drum even 100 days out. Quote: “I think we have widespread voter fraud, but the first thing that Trump needs to do is begin talking about it constantly,” Stone said. “If there’s voter fraud, this election will be illegitimate, the election of the winner will be illegitimate, we will have a constitutional crisis, widespread civil disobedience, and the government will no longer be the government.”- Roger Stone Trump is going to refuse to participate in the debates and then say the whole thing is rigged because he can't stand being a loser. SAD! |
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| Author: | Seacrest [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: That Trump drops out or is forced out of this? They can't force him out. I can see him leaving though while claiming he was forced out. |
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| Author: | Colonel Angus [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IulcfUm-cUM |
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| Author: | SomeGuy [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
We shall see. Funny thing is that if he had a modicum of discretion and focus he could steam roll into November. |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Walt has a better chance of being funnier than Don. |
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| Author: | Nas [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
SomeGuy wrote: We shall see. Funny thing is that if he had a modicum of discretion and focus he could steam roll into November. If he were just a loud mouth like Chris Christie I wouldn't vote for him but would secretly hope he won to piss off the establishment and shake things up. Unfortunately he's just about everything I'm against. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: That Trump drops out or is forced out of this? It's a "crows circling" false narrative, like Eugene Robinson at the W.P. and traitor, Joe Scarborough, questioning Trump's mental health. Liberal media following the old U.S.S.R playbook to discredit political enemies, always citing unnamed "sources." Fear mongering at it's worst, hoping scared Republicans bite and jump ship. |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Seacrest wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: That Trump drops out or is forced out of this? They can't force him out. I can see him leaving though while claiming he was forced out. I think they can force him off their ticket ... seems unlikely, but possible. “the Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States or the Republican candidate for Vice President of the United States.” Seems like they could employ 'otherwise' as a catch-all. As far as getting the new person's name on all the state's ballots, that would probably be the most significant hurdle of them all, particularly with the limited time available to do so. The effect(s) of the Electoral College give me nausea to even think about how many ways that could go. |
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| Author: | Colonel Angus [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
He's not going to win. There will be an unfortunate accident in October (Suprise!) that'll leave Pence to run w/ his choice of running mate Paul Ryan. |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Colonel Angus wrote: He's not going to win. There will be an unfortunate accident in October (Suprise!) that'll leave Pence to run w/ his choice of running mate Paul Ryan. You really think they'd JFK/RFK him? |
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| Author: | Jbi11s [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Don Tiny wrote: Colonel Angus wrote: He's not going to win. There will be an unfortunate accident in October (Suprise!) that'll leave Pence to run w/ his choice of running mate Paul Ryan. You really think they'd JFK/RFK him? It wouldn't surprise me. Would it really surprise you?... I wouldn't expect it before the election, because you don't know if Trump will win. |
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| Author: | Phil McCracken [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Jbi11s wrote: Don Tiny wrote: Colonel Angus wrote: He's not going to win. There will be an unfortunate accident in October (Suprise!) that'll leave Pence to run w/ his choice of running mate Paul Ryan. You really think they'd JFK/RFK him? It wouldn't surprise me. Would it really surprise you?... I wouldn't expect it before the election, because you don't know if Trump will win. Not supporting any of this talk, but let me get my tinfoil hat out and put it on.....if you could somehow place the blame for such an act on a Muslim extremist that would be beneficial for not only getting Trump off of the ticket, but also for further rallying their base about just how dangerous said Muslim extremists are here on U.S. soil..... I bet Reince and Ryan would consider that a win/win scenario |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Phil McCracken wrote: Jbi11s wrote: Don Tiny wrote: Colonel Angus wrote: He's not going to win. There will be an unfortunate accident in October (Suprise!) that'll leave Pence to run w/ his choice of running mate Paul Ryan. You really think they'd JFK/RFK him? It wouldn't surprise me. Would it really surprise you?... I wouldn't expect it before the election, because you don't know if Trump will win. Not supporting any of this talk, but let me get my tinfoil hat out and put it on.....if you could somehow place the blame for such an act on a Muslim extremist that would be beneficial for not only getting Trump off of the ticket, but also for further rallying their base about just how dangerous said Muslim extremists are here on U.S. soil..... I bet Reince and Ryan would consider that a win/win scenario I'm going to opt to hang on to what you might suggest is my naïveté and say that's too much for me to buy in to. |
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| Author: | Colonel Angus [ Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Don Tiny wrote: Colonel Angus wrote: He's not going to win. There will be an unfortunate accident in October (Suprise!) that'll leave Pence to run w/ his choice of running mate Paul Ryan. You really think they'd JFK/RFK him? In a sense, yes. However, I doubt he'll get a day dedicated to him on Decades. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 06, 2016 5:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Could Donald Trump Drop Out? Some Bettors Seem to Think So Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers AUG. 4, 2016 There’s a small but meaningful chance that Donald Trump will quit the race before Election Day, according to betting markets. Credit Mark Makela for The New York Times The latest guessing game is whether Donald Trump will drop out of the presidential race before Election Day. Although his campaign has denied that this is a possibility, ABC News reports that senior Republican officials are taking the idea seriously enough that they are exploring how to replace him if he drops out. So, what are the odds he quits? One way to determine this is to look at the latest odds in political prediction markets. It’s not that any bettor knows what Mr. Trump will do. Rather, markets are useful because people putting their money where their mouth is are more likely to give an honest assessment than party insiders positioning for political advantage. Moreover, aggregating the intuitions of many traders usually beats relying on any group of pundits. At the British prediction market Betfair, traders currently assess the Republican Party as holding a 25.8 percent chance to win the presidency. But they give Mr. Trump only a 24.1 percent chance of becoming president. The difference of 1.7 percent probably reflects the possibility that Mr. Trump drops out and that an alternative Republican wins the White House. That tells us the chance that Mr. Trump drops out and the Republicans still win. What about the odds that Mr. Trump drops out, and his replacement loses to Hillary Clinton? To determine those odds, some extrapolation is required. Interactive Feature: Who Will Be President? As a starting point, let’s assume that Mr. Trump’s replacement is as likely to lose the election as Mr. Trump is. Note that the markets assess the chance that the Republicans lose — 74.2 percent — as being roughly three times greater than the chance of victory. As such, our assumption suggests that the chance that Mr. Trump’s replacement loses is also three times that of his chance of winning (which we already calculated to be 1.7 percent). It follows that the chance that someone other than Mr. Trump leads the Republican Party to a loss is then three times 1.7, or around 5 percent. The odds that Mr. Trump drops out are simply the sum of the chance of an alternative Republican either winning (1.7 percent) or losing the election (5 percent), or 6.7 percent. Perhaps instead, Mr. Trump will drop out only if or when the chances of a Republican winning have fallen sufficiently that continuing to campaign is not worth his time. If so, the previous calculation represents a lower bound on the odds Mr. Trump drops out. For instance, if Mr. Trump will drop out only when he has wrought sufficient damage on the Republican brand that his replacement has — to keep the math simple — a 17 percent chance to win the election, then similar calculations suggest that markets give Mr. Trump a 10 percent chance to drop out. Perhaps the bias goes the other way, particularly if you believe — as I do — that the Republicans are more likely to win if Mr. Trump drops out. If so, my calculation represents an upper bound on the chance Mr. Trump quits. Perhaps an alternative Republican candidate has a 50 percent chance of winning, if given the chance. If so, then the chance that an alternative Republican runs and wins (which, if you recall, is 1.7 percent) is equal to the chance that an alternative runs and loses. By this view, the odds that Mr. Trump drops out are about 3.4 percent. My own judgment is that it appears that the markets rate the chance that Mr. Trump drops out as being somewhere between 3 and 10 percent. The range of my estimate is wide partly because it is unclear precisely what assumption to use in extrapolating from market prices to the odds Mr. Trump drops out, and partly because these calculations are sensitive to small changes in betting odds. How seriously should we take all of this? The divergence between the odds of a Republican president and a Trump presidency is real. It is evident not only at Betfair, but also in the odds offered by an array of overseas internet bookmakers. No similar divergence appears between the odds of Mrs. Clinton assuming the presidency and the Democrats winning the election, suggesting that markets believe it’s a sure thing that she’ll be on the ballot. Equally, it seems unlikely that these markets are privy to any sensitive inside information. Instead, they’re a useful aggregation of people’s best guesses. Some people call this the “conventional wisdom,” but I prefer to call it “collective wisdom,” to highlight that it is probably wiser than any of us individually. And that collective wisdom says that there’s a small though meaningful chance that Mr. Trump quits the race before Election Day. |
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| Author: | BeerFan [ Sat Aug 06, 2016 6:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Latest Election Analysis: The Election Is Already Over and Trump Will Win in a Landslide http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08 ... ign-rally/ Clinton drawing a few hundred to her events and a lot of those are plants. Trump draws thousands. Media trying to suppress the GOOPer vote as always. Panic City as tiny crowds for The Caller Bob indicate low turnout for her. #BringBackOurBurglars |
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| Author: | Gloopan Kuratz [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 8:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
They could buy Trump out. $2 billion to go away |
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| Author: | Jaw Breaker [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
What are the rules for him keeping campaign cash? He's raking it in now (particularly small donations) and I can see him not spending much of it since he gets so much free coverage anyway. Plus, he's now getting some additional perks such as private briefings on security, which are routine for the final two candidates. I don't see him dropping out unless there is an enormous buyout offer made. Though as I mentioned in the other thread, I don't think he actually wants to win, as shown by his selection of economic advisors (who seems tailor made for the Dems to attack as being too male, too white, and too billionaire-y). |
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| Author: | GoldenJet [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Dignified Rube wrote: It's a "crows circling" false narrative, like Eugene Robinson at the W.P. and traitor, Joe Scarborough, questioning Trump's mental health. Liberal media following the old U.S.S.R playbook to discredit political enemies, always citing unnamed "sources." Fear mongering at it's worst, hoping scared Republicans bite and jump ship. You are another shining example of what is wrong with the GOP. |
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| Author: | Tall Midget [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
GoldenJet wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: It's a "crows circling" false narrative, like Eugene Robinson at the W.P. and traitor, Joe Scarborough, questioning Trump's mental health. Liberal media following the old U.S.S.R playbook to discredit political enemies, always citing unnamed "sources." Fear mongering at it's worst, hoping scared Republicans bite and jump ship. You are another shining example of what is wrong with the GOP. Haven't the filing deadlines passed already in some states for getting candidates on the ballot? It seems unlikely that Trump is going anywhere. |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Seacrest wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: That Trump drops out or is forced out of this? They can't force him out. I can see him leaving though while claiming he was forced out. This is what I see happening, too. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
SomeGuy wrote: We shall see. Funny thing is that if he had a modicum of discretion and focus he could steam roll into November. Each candidate's strategy should have been to stay silent and let the opponent hang himself. Only one has followed that strategy |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
I changed my mind about this. Trump doesn't finish. But neither does Hillary. |
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| Author: | Tall Midget [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 12:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
leashyourkids wrote: Seacrest wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: That Trump drops out or is forced out of this? They can't force him out. I can see him leaving though while claiming he was forced out. This is what I see happening, too. By what date? Personally, I don't see why Trump would drop out. Clinton's support is soft. He can still win this. |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 1:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Tall Midget wrote: leashyourkids wrote: Seacrest wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: That Trump drops out or is forced out of this? They can't force him out. I can see him leaving though while claiming he was forced out. This is what I see happening, too. By what date? Personally, I don't see why Trump would drop out. Clinton's support is soft. He can still win this. Agreed. People think I'm nuts, but I genuinely don't think he wants to win. |
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| Author: | JORR [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
I still think it's possible he is working for Clinton. I find it hard to believe he just started hating the Clintons out of the blue. Wall Street will get the president it wants. I somehow doubt Trump has much of a problem with that. |
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| Author: | billypootons [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 2:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
it seems fairly apparent even by his own words he wasn't expecting to win the nomination. my amateur opinion.... this started as a PR stunt and mentally he's run out of gas and is done with the whole thing. |
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| Author: | long time guy [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 2:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: What are the odds? |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I still think it's possible he is working for Clinton. I find it hard to believe he just started hating the Clintons out of the blue. Wall Street will get the president it wants. I somehow doubt Trump has much of a problem with that. Trump's economic adviser team doesn't exactly represent "change". Didn't you once tout the greatness that was Linc Chafee at some point during this process? |
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