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Dow Passes 20,000 https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=104686 |
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Author: | SpiralStairs [ Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:59 pm ] |
Post subject: | Dow Passes 20,000 |
Denis, does this mean anything at all? Should I move my money out of pumpkins? |
Author: | newper [ Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:02 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
Sounds like a QB the Bears should target this draft. |
Author: | Don Tiny [ Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:08 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
newper wrote: Sounds like a QB the Bears should target this draft. ![]() |
Author: | denisdman [ Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:20 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
SpiralStairs wrote: Denis, does this mean anything at all? Should I move my money out of pumpkins? It's just a psychological level. I am uncomfortable with the overall market valuation and have pulled back on some of my trading positions. That being said, any long term investments such as college savings and retirement remain fully deployed. You cannot afford to market time that stuff. The ever rising market is built on a few things: -Lack of growth in most developed foreign markets like Europe, -Few attractive alternative investments given still low bond yields, -Expectations of a large corporate rate cut, which will lift corporate earnings significantly, -More accommodative regulatory and legal environment. |
Author: | SpiralStairs [ Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:26 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
denisdman wrote: SpiralStairs wrote: Denis, does this mean anything at all? Should I move my money out of pumpkins? It's just a psychological level. I am uncomfortable with the overall market valuation and have pulled back on some of my trading positions. That being said, any long term investments such as college savings and retirement remain fully deployed. You cannot afford to market time that stuff. The ever rising market is built on a few things: -Lack of growth in most developed foreign markets like Europe, -Few attractive alternative investments given still low bond yields, -Expectations of a large corporate rate cut, which will lift corporate earnings significantly, -More accommodative regulatory and legal environment. All my non retirement money (not much) is in consumer staples. That can only go up, right? Right? |
Author: | denisdman [ Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:42 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
Hah, those are safer than your average stock (low beta in geek talk), but those aren't immune to market pull backs. |
Author: | SpiralStairs [ Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:45 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
denisdman wrote: Hah, those are safer than your average stock (low beta in geek talk), but those aren't immune to market pull backs. If Denis was a betting man where would he like to gamble? |
Author: | denisdman [ Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:29 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
SpiralStairs wrote: denisdman wrote: Hah, those are safer than your average stock (low beta in geek talk), but those aren't immune to market pull backs. If Denis was a betting man where would he like to gamble? Well, I don't make any high risk plays anymore. I just took advantage of Kohl's poor Christmas report to jump on the stock at $40. It pays a nice dividend, and the stock traditionally trades between $40 and $60. Clothing retailers have been getting hammered for a variety of reasons. MANY like Ford. Again nice dividend. But I think the new car buying cycle has peaked and was fueled by easy financing terms and incentives. Still it has an attractive valuation. I don't have any screaming buys because the market just keeps pushing higher. Wealth is made over long periods of time and best done through dollar cost averaging. I just have a trading portfolio for fun. |
Author: | TurnTo [ Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:39 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
SpiralStairs wrote: All my non retirement money (not much) is in consumer staples. That can only go up, right? Right? I seriously thought you meant the cereal in the cupboard and the milk in the fridge for a minute. Clearly I am not knowledgeable about this investment stuff. I tell people I have all my money invested in car repairs. |
Author: | rogers park bryan [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:30 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
Artificially propped up by the lack of attractive investing options Denis mentioned Also historically these Dow landmarks are followed by a large correction Crude Oil is pretty low right now. Might be a good investment Or just put it under your mattress until we see if Trump starts taking a Presidential fee out of capital gains. |
Author: | a retard [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:47 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
Regularly invest in low cost mutual funds, then hold. Unless you want to trail the market, forget about trying to time it. Another mistake people make is either going too conservative or not investing at all. Nothing is certain long-term, but inflation comes pretty close. Meaning the stock market presents the most viable option for most for enabling the value of your money to grow more than inflation can erode it. |
Author: | denisdman [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:59 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
a retard wrote: Regularly invest in low cost mutual funds, then hold. Unless you want to trail the market, forget about trying to time it. Another mistake people make is either going too conservative or not investing at all. Nothing is certain long-term, but inflation comes pretty close. Meaning the stock market presents the most viable option for most for enabling the value of your money to grow more than inflation can erode it. Yeah you can't go wrong with Vanguard Index funds. Timing is a waste and a recipe for stress and sleepless nights. Dollar cost average in to avoid buying high. Inflation is the slow killer. Nothing can help you more than spending less than you earn. |
Author: | SpiralStairs [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:21 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
denisdman wrote: a retard wrote: Regularly invest in low cost mutual funds, then hold. Unless you want to trail the market, forget about trying to time it. Another mistake people make is either going too conservative or not investing at all. Nothing is certain long-term, but inflation comes pretty close. Meaning the stock market presents the most viable option for most for enabling the value of your money to grow more than inflation can erode it. Yeah you can't go wrong with Vanguard Index funds. Timing is a waste and a recipe for stress and sleepless nights. Dollar cost average in to avoid buying high. Inflation is the slow killer. Nothing can help you more than spending less than you earn. FUCK that I want to throw my money in the toilet. |
Author: | a retard [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:23 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
And maybe because this bored might skew to the young side, you don't see much retirement talk here. But clearly, with the disappearance of pensions everywhere except government work and looming social security funding problems, it has never been more imperative for people to save for their retirement, and the sooner they start the better. It's all about time in the market, not market timing. |
Author: | denisdman [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:30 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
SpiralStairs wrote: denisdman wrote: a retard wrote: Regularly invest in low cost mutual funds, then hold. Unless you want to trail the market, forget about trying to time it. Another mistake people make is either going too conservative or not investing at all. Nothing is certain long-term, but inflation comes pretty close. Meaning the stock market presents the most viable option for most for enabling the value of your money to grow more than inflation can erode it. Yeah you can't go wrong with Vanguard Index funds. Timing is a waste and a recipe for stress and sleepless nights. Dollar cost average in to avoid buying high. Inflation is the slow killer. Nothing can help you more than spending less than you earn. FUCK that I want to throw my money in the toilet. Thought you were into pumpkins? |
Author: | denisdman [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:35 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
a retard wrote: And maybe because this bored might skew to the young side, you don't see much retirement talk here. But clearly, with the disappearance of pensions everywhere except government work and looming social security funding problems, it has never been more imperative for people to save for their retirement, and the sooner they start the better. It's all about time in the market, not market timing. I like your simple and true advice. Wall Street makes investing seem like something only an investment banker can understand. But at its heart, it is a lot of simple concepts that lead to wealth. There are so many financial products that are killing the average person- high interest rate revolving credit cards, 84 month car loans or leases that encourage people to buy beyond their means, student loan debt, reverse mortgages, pay day loans.....on and on. |
Author: | WaitingforRuffcorn [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:53 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
a retard wrote: And maybe because this bored might skew to the young side, you don't see much retirement talk here. But clearly, with the disappearance of pensions everywhere except government work and looming social security funding problems, it has never been more imperative for people to save for their retirement, and the sooner they start the better. It's all about time in the market, not market timing. Sounds nice, but about 60 percent of the country can't afford a $500 bill. Don't think they are putting that much into their portfolio. As for the markets, technology is moving so fast, who knows what a good stock will be in year. And the guys over at Zero Hedge think this market growth is just government debt funded smoke and mirrors. |
Author: | denisdman [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:58 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
People don't have a $500 bill because of the simplest concept- spend less than you earn. In fact it's worse, many people over consume by using credit card and other types of debt to live beyond their income level. They get buried fast. Our schools don't teach much in the way of basic financial management. Even our smart students bury themselves in debt because they don't understand cost/benefit calculations. I'll check out zero hedge. |
Author: | leashyourkids [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:03 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
We will be below 19,500 tomorrow after people realize they have to pay the freight costs on their refigerators from China instead of Mexico. |
Author: | a retard [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:07 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
Don't need to go big. Start with a 5% contribute to a 401k and enjoy the company match (if there is one) and the immediate tax benefit. Then increase it every time there is a raise. EDIT: If there is a company match find a way to contribute enough to get the full match. It's FREE MONEY. Even if you are bad at your job. And leave stock-picking to the pros. Starting with a total stock market index fund or a target date retirement fund will work just fine. |
Author: | Chus [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:26 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
a retard wrote: Don't need to go big. Start with a 5% contribute to a 401k and enjoy the company match (if there is one) and the immediate tax benefit. Then increase it every time there is a raise. My wife contributes 6% and her company matches it. |
Author: | leashyourkids [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:27 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
I've gotten a couple strongly-worded letters from our 401k company for selling the pre-set "aggressive" stock mixes when the market was high and then buying the same one low within too short of a window. If you'd read their letters, you'd think I was Bernie Madoff. |
Author: | SpiralStairs [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:31 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
denisdman wrote: SpiralStairs wrote: denisdman wrote: a retard wrote: Regularly invest in low cost mutual funds, then hold. Unless you want to trail the market, forget about trying to time it. Another mistake people make is either going too conservative or not investing at all. Nothing is certain long-term, but inflation comes pretty close. Meaning the stock market presents the most viable option for most for enabling the value of your money to grow more than inflation can erode it. Yeah you can't go wrong with Vanguard Index funds. Timing is a waste and a recipe for stress and sleepless nights. Dollar cost average in to avoid buying high. Inflation is the slow killer. Nothing can help you more than spending less than you earn. FUCK that I want to throw my money in the toilet. Thought you were into pumpkins? I have a feeling the market for them is going to peak right near Valentine's Day. |
Author: | sinicalypse [ Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:33 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
a retard wrote: it has never been more imperative for people to save for their retirement, and the sooner they start the better. * lights up cigarette * oh yeah, i'm saving up for my retirement. i'm gonna have a nice inoperable nest-egg by the time people wanna have a look up my ass! |
Author: | pittmike [ Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:23 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
a retard wrote: And maybe because this bored might skew to the young side, you don't see much retirement talk here. But clearly, with the disappearance of pensions everywhere except government work and looming social security funding problems, it has never been more imperative for people to save for their retirement, and the sooner they start the better. It's all about time in the market, not market timing. I laugh at the younger folks here. They do not max out their 403b that we are provided. They will say I need this or I want that or the I am young talk. They are really dumb in our case as we get matched up to 8% at 150%! ![]() |
Author: | Ogie Oglethorpe [ Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:05 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
denisdman wrote: SpiralStairs wrote: Denis, does this mean anything at all? Should I move my money out of pumpkins? It's just a psychological level. I am uncomfortable with the overall market valuation and have pulled back on some of my trading positions. That being said, any long term investments such as college savings and retirement remain fully deployed. You cannot afford to market time that stuff. The ever rising market is built on a few things: -Lack of growth in most developed foreign markets like Europe, -Few attractive alternative investments given still low bond yields, -Expectations of a large corporate rate cut, which will lift corporate earnings significantly, -More accommodative regulatory and legal environment. I would also say that low interest rates have meant the bond market and other alternatives aren't good places to park money. I'd also say a strong dollar has aided the market. I am still in my (late) 20s so I'm just throwing everything into S&P 500 index funds and figure I'll average 8% for the next 35 years and I should have a nest egg to retire on. |
Author: | denisdman [ Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:08 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
Chus wrote: a retard wrote: Don't need to go big. Start with a 5% contribute to a 401k and enjoy the company match (if there is one) and the immediate tax benefit. Then increase it every time there is a raise. My wife contributes 6% and her company matches it. That is my exact recommendation for people. I have always done 6% of my income (17 years now). If by some miracle a company matches higher than 6%, then set aside more to capture the full match. But at 6% you will build a nice nest egg in line with your income. |
Author: | denisdman [ Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:09 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
pittmike wrote: a retard wrote: And maybe because this bored might skew to the young side, you don't see much retirement talk here. But clearly, with the disappearance of pensions everywhere except government work and looming social security funding problems, it has never been more imperative for people to save for their retirement, and the sooner they start the better. It's all about time in the market, not market timing. I laugh at the younger folks here. They do not max out their 403b that we are provided. They will say I need this or I want that or the I am young talk. They are really dumb in our case as we get matched up to 8% at 150%! ![]() Matches are free return to you. It is the biggest no brainer in investing. You put away $1 and it turns into $2 with NO RISK. |
Author: | WaitingforRuffcorn [ Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:10 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
denisdman wrote: People don't have a $500 bill because of the simplest concept- spend less than you earn. In fact it's worse, many people over consume by using credit card and other types of debt to live beyond their income level. They get buried fast. Our schools don't teach much in the way of basic financial management. Even our smart students bury themselves in debt because they don't understand cost/benefit calculations. I'll check out zero hedge. I get what you are saying, but it's beyond that. Rents, healthcare and other expenses have risen much higher than inflation. |
Author: | denisdman [ Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:14 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Dow Passes 20,000 |
Ogie Oglethorpe wrote: I am still in my (late) 20s so I'm just throwing everything into S&P 500 index funds and figure I'll average 8% for the next 35 years and I should have a nest egg to retire on. Just a small piece of advice. S&P 500 Index funds are great. But that is mainly large cap domestic equities in style. I would recommend putting 40% in that. Take 30% into international (good value now with the dollar strong and weak markets overseas) and the balance of the 30% in domestic small and/or mid caps. You can't go wrong with the S&P 500 Index, but it is not broad enough to capture all of the parts of the markets. Small caps have been very hot, so you missed that massive rally. Eventually international will come back strong. But you want to capture all of that over your career. I used to think 8% (even 11-12% which is the longer term average) was a given, but I have taken my expectations down to 6-7% prospectively. Inflation and real interest rates are lower than any one every thought possible. Inflation is also very low, so market returns are following. I also love threads like this. Investing is my passion. |
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