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Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=126372		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Ogie Oglethorpe [ Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:17 am ]
Post subject:  Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
Going to be interesting to see what happens as they have debt obligations due tomorrow that they will default on. If it passes, it will be the 3rd largest default in history behind Greece and Lehman Bros.

The issues behind this default are those unique to China, but it will be interesting to see how this ripples through China's economy and what impact that has globally.

The TL;DR version is Evergrande financed a ton of construction and residential properties were overbuilt and remained empty so they never made money back on it, basically the opposite situation of the US housing market where builders are behind the demand curve.
Author:  Curious Hair [ Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Bank)
Is this going to shut up the tankies who go on about how Xi just wants to make life better for everyone because he cares so much?
Author:  Ogie Oglethorpe [ Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Bank)
Curious Hair wrote:
Is this going to shut up the tankies who go on about how Xi just wants to make life better for everyone because he cares so much?

The tankies will find some way to say this is due to Western interference despite the fact it was Xi's "reforms" that sent Evergrande over the cliff.
Author:  blackhawksfan [ Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
So, will this cause a recession in the US?
Author:  Ogie Oglethorpe [ Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
blackhawksfan wrote:
So, will this cause a recession in the US?

this event on it's own, no.

Now if this causes a ripple effect where a bunch of other large Chinese firms fail, then it could potentially do that.
Author:  Seacrest [ Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Bank)
Curious Hair wrote:
Is this going to shut up the tankies who go on about how Xi just wants to make life better for everyone because he cares so much?



I doubt it.

I've heard that China's economy is more leveraged then the US.

And with the amount of US investment in that part of the world, I do not see how this doesn't effect the US economy.
Author:  Ogie Oglethorpe [ Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
Going to be interesting to see which Chinese banks are the ones stuck holding the bag.



I guess we should be lucky in this rare instance that China prevents US firms from investing heavily there. It should shield them from some exposure, but obviously if China's economy melts down, that hits us and the rest of the globe as well.

I don't think that's the scenario we are looking at, but it's still interesting to see how this plays out.
Author:  denisdman [ Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
The Journal Article was interesting. It made it seem like there is a lot of foreign ownership of their bonds.

The thing that really sucks is that they basically looted deposits on lots of homeowners as they often took years to complete the large condo developments. The creditors were getting paid huge interest rates on the junk rated debt, so they knew what they were getting.


“ Karen Li, a 37-year-old in the south­ern Chi­nese me­tropolis of Shen­zhen where Ever­grande is head­quar­tered, said she paid the full pur­chase price of 1.4 mil­lion yuan, the equiv­a­lent of about $216,800, three years ago for a roughly 400-square-foot apart­ment in one of its high-rise de­vel­op-ments. Ms. Li, who works in re­tail sales and has yet to take own­er­ship of what would be her first home, said she was no­ti­fied last month that con­struc­tion has been de­layed.”

“ The com­pany bor­rowed lib­er­ally from banks and global in­vestors, pay­ing in­ter­est rates on junk-rated U.S. dol­lar debt that of­ten ran into dou­ble-digit per­cent-ages. It ex­panded into theme parks, health­care ser­vices, min­eral-wa­ter pro­duc­tion and elec­tric-ve­hi­cle man­u­fac­tur­ing. It en­listed Hong Kong ac­tor Jackie Chan at one point to help pro­mote its bot­tled wa­ter, and bought a pro­fes­sional soc­cer club in its home prov­ince.”
Author:  SpiralStairs [ Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
Sounds like shell be first in line for the elevator to the top of the Foxcon factory.
Author:  Ogie Oglethorpe [ Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
SpiralStairs wrote:
Sounds like shell be first in line for the elevator to the top of the Foxcon factory.

Might as well remove the suicide nets and let them fall this time.
Author:  Ogie Oglethorpe [ Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
China's markets were closed today and tomorrow for a holiday. Going to be a fun Wednesday for that to go down quicker than a whore in Macau
Author:  Ogie Oglethorpe [ Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
officially in default
Author:  Ogie Oglethorpe [ Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-make ... _lead_pos1
Author:  Curious Hair [ Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
So China's economy is as much a house of lies as ours is, always good to know.
Author:  The Great Northern [ Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
Curious Hair wrote:
So China's economy is as much a house of lies as ours is, always good to know.

At least they wont bail this bank out.
Author:  denisdman [ Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
Leverage is a bad thing, something our governments would do well to recognize.
Author:  denisdman [ Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
The Great Northern wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
So China's economy is as much a house of lies as ours is, always good to know.

At least they wont bail this bank out.


Real estate developer…
Author:  The Great Northern [ Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
Whatever. If this happened in the USA the legislature and executive would move with blinding speed to make sure all the big investors could be made whole. Meanwhile China is going to line up the people responsible and shoot them.
Author:  Curious Hair [ Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
You fail to uphold Xi Jinping Thought at your own peril.
Author:  The Great Northern [ Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
Once upon a time white people didn't fuck around. Back in those days we would parcel up China and just take little bites off and hand it to whoever wanted it. Tsingtao beer? Started by a couple of German settlers who wanted a fresh start in the Kiautschou Bay concession, which the German Empire just told the Qing dynasty they were going to make part of their colonial empire. No war, no nothing. The Chinese knew to fuck around was to find out.

Now the Chinese look at imperial Europe as a model. Socially, economically and politically. They are going to topple all our weak, divided republics like dominoes. The world will probably be better off for it, which is the saddest part.
Author:  Nardi [ Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
The Great Northern wrote:
The world will probably be better off for it


It's always interesting when the ends of the horseshoe meet.
Author:  Seacrest [ Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Evergrande (Chinese Real-Estate Developer/Bank)
Curious Hair wrote:
So China's economy is as much a house of lies as ours is, always good to know.



Puts tariffs in a whole new light for you now.
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