usd jpy....
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| Stock Market https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=95563 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Stock Market |
Not looking pretty these days amid China sell-off, plummeting oil, declining TV ad revenue for media, Greece uncertainty, etc. I have hated the market for a long time, and now the market cannot ignore the fundamentals any more. The one positive is that the bond market has adjusted down, with the ten-year yield hovering above 2.00%, when it was close to 2.4% not long ago. The Fed will find some excuse to stay pat on rates, and that could lift the stock market later this year or early next year. On the other hand, it's not good that the Fed has not been able to raise rates---its funds rate---off the absolute floor at 0%, when it has been stuck in crisis mode for seven years. The stock market often takes its cue from the bond market. If bonds continue to drop, look for an even bigger drop in stocks. |
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| Author: | Jaw Breaker [ Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
My timing has been terrible...I've been short for eons, and in fact had loaded up on Vix recently, and finally capitulated when nothing came out of the Greek fiasco. Sure enough, as soon as I got out of my positions last week, costing me $$$, the market finally craters. |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
China's gonna implode here shortly. commodity exporters in South America, Mideast, Russia and are on their way to disaster. EU is stagnant. Japan contracting. US is the best performer which is a sign the world is in deep shit. we're all fucked. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
Jaw Breaker wrote: My timing has been terrible...I've been short for eons, and in fact had loaded up on Vix recently, and finally capitulated when nothing came out of the Greek fiasco. Sure enough, as soon as I got out of my positions last week, costing me $$$, the market finally craters. That's usually how it works. You know you're right about something, you act on it, but the market reverses on you before you get the move you want, so you capitulate. I used to play around with VIX options, but they are a loser. They hardly move, even deep in-the-money ones, unless you get a 5 pt. pop up. The only way to make money is to be right about certain sectors or a certain stock story, but even then there is market risk that can get you. I want to buy the market when it's really beaten down or catch it when it goes from down- to up-trending. In the present case, it has neither stopped downtrending, nor has it bottomed. So, its best to park money in cash for the time being. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
Hatchetman wrote: China's gonna implode here shortly. commodity exporters in South America, Mideast, Russia and are on their way to disaster. EU is stagnant. Japan contracting. US is the best performer which is a sign the world is in deep shit. we're all fucked. I expect if Trump wins, there's going to be huge spending on infrastructure as part of his economic plan. That will put people back to work and raise incomes. Remember Trump talking about the bad bridges and roads in Wisconsin? That's everywhere. Plus, he'll probably try to cut taxes on top of it. The market might start keying on this, if Trump is leading to start the New Year. |
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| Author: | Jaw Breaker [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
Goddamn it...talk about horrible timing. If I hadn't puked my positions last week, I'd be up 250k over the last two days. Dow futures down 850 points right now. Not sure of next move...may look to buy some oil/energy stocks if crude gets to $35. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
usd jpy....
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| Author: | denisdman [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
It is interesting to see the failed monetary and fiscal policies of governments result in a stock bubble. It will be hard to blame the free markets this time. You have nearly a decade of zero interest rates, which forced everyone into equities. You have debt fueled public spending that is not sustainable. China has lost control of its authoritarian capitalism. Will this be a blip for China or will it become Japan (recession basically since 1989)? |
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| Author: | long time guy [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
denisdman wrote: It is interesting to see the failed monetary and fiscal policies of governments result in a stock bubble. It will be hard to blame the free markets this time. You have nearly a decade of zero interest rates, which forced everyone into equities. You have debt fueled public spending that is not sustainable. China has lost control of its authoritarian capitalism. Will this be a blip for China or will it become Japan (recession basically since 1989)? The Market was artificially propped up by the increase in the money supply, coupled with low interest rates in about 07 and 08. The bubble bursted in 07 and had to be propped up by govt. at that time. This was around the time that the unregulated real estate market was tanking big time. The free market failed back then. |
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| Author: | SomeGuy [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
long time guy wrote: denisdman wrote: It is interesting to see the failed monetary and fiscal policies of governments result in a stock bubble. It will be hard to blame the free markets this time. You have nearly a decade of zero interest rates, which forced everyone into equities. You have debt fueled public spending that is not sustainable. China has lost control of its authoritarian capitalism. Will this be a blip for China or will it become Japan (recession basically since 1989)? The Market was artificially propped up by the increase in the money supply, coupled with low interest rates in about 07 and 08. The bubble bursted in 07 and had to be propped up by govt. at that time. This was around the time that the unregulated real estate market was tanking big time. The free market failed back then. Debt fueled stock buybacks as well, those mirror the market rise. No way the U.S. economy, as it stands, supports an 18k DOW. Lots of fluff. But this is how the banks and major players make their money during these times. Get the retail investor in the pen (they were forced in) and then slaughter them. Buy the panic sold shares/assets at cheaper prices and pump it up. Clockwork. ...and like clockwork a concentrated and coordinated effort to move the market up and cut losses in half has magically materialized! |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
We might close higher today. Crazy. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
PPT brought the market back. |
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| Author: | SomeGuy [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
Dignified Rube wrote: PPT brought the market back. A real nice save by the PPT. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
I look at stock's like a do poker: I will get eaten alive just trying to learn and be chasing so long it isn't worth my effort to participate in the first place |
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| Author: | Douchebag [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
rogers park bryan wrote: We might close higher today. Crazy. Thanks Obama |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
rogers park bryan wrote: We might close higher today. Crazy. Ran out of steam, back down Many suicides today |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
rogers park bryan wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: We might close higher today. Crazy. Ran out of steam, back down Many suicides today RPB, you in the trading world aren't you? When the market drops this fast, you know some folks are caught holding the bag from their leveraged directional bets. I want to hear about a hedge fund that went uber long on commodities. |
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| Author: | America [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
The whole concept is fucking stupid and should've been outlawed on October 25th 1929. |
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| Author: | SomeGuy [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
America wrote: The whole concept is fucking stupid and should've been outlawed on October 25th 1929. Go kill yourself. |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
America wrote: The whole concept is fucking stupid and should've been outlawed on October 25th 1929. Everyone should just be given food and shelter and a 100k salary. |
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| Author: | jimmypasta [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
Darkside wrote: America wrote: The whole concept is fucking stupid and should've been outlawed on October 25th 1929. Everyone should just be given food and shelter and a 100k salary. even the 1%'ers? |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
jimmypasta wrote: Darkside wrote: America wrote: The whole concept is fucking stupid and should've been outlawed on October 25th 1929. Everyone should just be given food and shelter and a 100k salary. even the 1%'ers? Especially them. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
rogers park bryan wrote: We might close higher today. Crazy. Because many with Cash see this as a time to buy....I dont agree.....I say sit on the sidelines for 3 weeks....cant explain why the 3 weeks, too much to get into, but thats my plan on any stocks. We started short selling the yen at 125. Small positions that we added to as we became more in profit, todays dip was too good to be true, sold some, waiting for the pullback and bought it back. No amazing profit, but made some money to cover the bar bill at the club (Pink Flamingo line for you yutes out there) Immediate future, looking to short the yen currencies. |
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| Author: | polster [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
There are couple variables at play with the stock market drop: 1 - expected correction from a market that has gone up for 2yrs now 2 - Fear of expected raising interest rates from the FED in the near future. 3 - China devaluing there currency because of a slowdown in there economy effects many commodities including all the miners, gas, and oil, etc... as there is less demand for these materials in China which is the largest producer of goods in the world. 4 - effects on energy companies like gas, oil, MLP's etc... are very negative if natural gas and oil stay at record lows. It will effect the ability for these companies to payout a high dividend becuase earnings growth will become flat to negative. Many retirees have energy companies in the brokerage and retirement account either through funds or individual equities. Long term equities will always beat putting your money in the (thrift) bank account. The issue is most people who invest in stocks dont have a long term horizon and think because of bad news 1 day or more that the perpetual direction of there portfolio and are afraid to lose money. The worst thing you can do is sell out of all posionts when there is such drop as you will end up losing your shirt and not have opportunity to take advantage when there is a recovery (ie when people held when market dropped in 2008 till now mad out with a lot of money... those that sold in 2008 lost money). |
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| Author: | America [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
I like how "everyone should get food and shelter" is mentioned sarcastically. |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
America wrote: I like how "everyone should get food and shelter" is mentioned sarcastically. It's not sarcastic. Everyone should get whatever they need for free with no need to pay for it |
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| Author: | pittmike [ Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
Darkside wrote: America wrote: I like how "everyone should get food and shelter" is mentioned sarcastically. It's not sarcastic. Everyone should get whatever they need for free with no need to pay for it I agree. Give it away give it away give it away now. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
Reversal today? After being up 500+? Holy shit! Doomed!! |
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| Author: | SomeGuy [ Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
Dignified Rube wrote: Reversal today? After being up 500+? Holy shit! Doomed!! And that's with a PBOC rate cut and the BoJ jawboning about taking further "measures" to chase inflation. |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stock Market |
SomeGuy wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: Reversal today? After being up 500+? Holy shit! Doomed!! And that's with a PBOC rate cut and the BoJ jawboning about taking further "measures" to chase inflation. Even with the China loosening, their market was down over 7%. Japan's fell as well. Weird action today. |
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