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| Fed Interest Rate Change? https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=96032 |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Fed Interest Rate Change? |
After 9 years do they raise it a 1/4 tomorrow? Its a YES or NO question, as I am sick of listening to experts says that if they dont they will in a future meeting. |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
I am a yes even though there are compelling reasons not to raise rates. Low interest rates have created a ton of economic distortions and misplaced incentives. The key will be the Fed statement talking about the pace of interest rate increases, which should be quite slow and measured. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
I am saying NO, only because they want to do so at the next meeting and then see what happens in 2016. They dont want the shock for the few months, then everyone leaves town in November and the market is just dead because 37 people control the worlds wealth and they run to the Hamptons for Thanksgiving to Xmas, so they can oversee the "closeup" of the "Hamp House" until the spring. These are issues that are such a headache to the 1%, YOU DONT EVEN KNOW. 
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| Author: | Terry's Peeps [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
NO. |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
My guy says Yes. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
Yes |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
The reason I am guessing now is to take the uncertainty out of the market. If they leave it for December, then we are back to the yes or no in December. I think they will take the hit now, and say that any additional increases will not come until 2016. But Yellen is as dovish as they come. |
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| Author: | Minooka Meatball [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
It's needed, but they won't do it with the current market volatility. Next meeting: maybe. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
denisdman wrote: The reason I am guessing now is to take the uncertainty out of the market. If they leave it for December, then we are back to the yes or no in December. I think they will take the hit now, and say that any additional increases will not come until 2016. But Yellen is as dovish as they come. I will agree that Now or December, it WILL NOT be the first of many to come....They will wait at least a year to see what happens before raised again. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
rogers park bryan wrote: My guy says Yes. Boers vibe. |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
Chus wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: My guy says Yes. Boers vibe. Except that his guy is saying it before the announcement. |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
Minooka Meatball wrote: It's needed, but they won't do it with the current market volatility. Next meeting: maybe. Many experts think the uncertainty is creating more volatility. But yes there are plenty of reasons to wait, none of which are correct. They have wrecked the balance of the fixed income markets and pushed equity prices to unreasonable levels. |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
what will happen first a fed increase or a cutler game winning drive? |
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| Author: | Jaw Breaker [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
No |
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| Author: | Gloopan Kuratz [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
rogers park bryan wrote: My guy says Yes. I'm hearing that from my guy too. |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
Gloopan Kuratz wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: My guy says Yes. I'm hearing that from my guy too. My guy is an Italian Sox fan so... |
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| Author: | Gloopan Kuratz [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
rogers park bryan wrote: Gloopan Kuratz wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: My guy says Yes. I'm hearing that from my guy too. My guy is an Italian Sox fan so... I'm hearing that Yellen is very, very, very, very, very, very upset. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
No. Inertia is the natural state of government organizations |
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| Author: | SomeGuy [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
MAYBE a .25 raise. But why bother with that? It's all about the stock market now. Any appreciable hikes will blow a hole through the Federal budget and raise debt interest payments...~300 billion per year at the moment...every hike will blow that up. Mortgages, cheap car loans.... Plus you have pension funds that need a guaranteed return. A return to 5% or thereabouts is a pipe dream. Never again in our lifetimes. If anything they do more QE to juice the markets and really crush the non-wealthy. My gut tells me NO. All they can do is play the PR game now. It's over. |
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| Author: | Gloopan Kuratz [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
The market will tank if they don't raise rates. It's built in already |
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| Author: | Hussra [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
Not a snowball's chance. Not happening. Not this time. Not even this year. |
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| Author: | SomeGuy [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
Hussra wrote: Not a snowball's chance. Not happening. Not this time. Not even this year. Probably never, ever again. They've painted themselves into quite corner. |
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| Author: | Jaw Breaker [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
SomeGuy wrote: It's all about the stock market now. I am sensing that as well. It used to be the Fed's dual mandate was minimizing unemployment and keeping prices/inflation stable, but last year I saw Bill Gross mention that a third nebulous element, "financial conditions," was also creeping in as a third (if unofficial) factor. If the stock market drops, the "wealth effect" goes with it, people spend less, yada yada (forget the fact that the rise in the stock market due to zero rate policy is the biggest reason for income inequality...but they don't want you to know that). Add in the fear of emerging markets crumbling, and there are a plethora of excuses they will fall back on to postpone yet again. I think the only question is whether/when QE4 will be announced. |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
Jaw Breaker wrote: (forget the fact that the rise in the stock market due to zero rate policy is the biggest reason for income inequality...but they don't want you to know that). Think so? |
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| Author: | Jaw Breaker [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
rogers park bryan wrote: Jaw Breaker wrote: (forget the fact that the rise in the stock market due to zero rate policy is the biggest reason for income inequality...but they don't want you to know that). Think so? Yes, I don't have a link handy, but I think it was proven that most (but not all) of the increase in the gap over the last several years was due to capital gains, not wages. (And as you know, not only have capital gains exploded due to ZIRP, but they are also taxed at a lower rate, which aggravates the issue even more.) |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
rogers park bryan wrote: Jaw Breaker wrote: (forget the fact that the rise in the stock market due to zero rate policy is the biggest reason for income inequality...but they don't want you to know that). Think so? Rich and upper middle class folks make more from variable compensation (stock options and bonuses) than salaries. Then you add in the increase in their wealth from a rising stock market, and that is one of the big drivers with income inequality. The disparity in wealth is directly related to the stock market and rising asset prices. The disparity in pay is partially so. Have any of you guys ever looked at the proxy statement compensation tables of public companies? Executives don't receive tens of millions from salaries. It is all variable compensation.  Comp table on page 47 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ ... def14a.htm |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
variable compensation package of CEO: -if company does well you make a shit-ton of money -if company does poorly you make a shit-ton of money |
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| Author: | SomeGuy [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
Hatchetman wrote: variable compensation package of CEO: -if company does well you make a shit-ton of money -if company does poorly you make a shit-ton of money It's part of the reason the quarter to quarter/ share price fixation process has taken over and ruined companies. |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
Hatchetman wrote: variable compensation package of CEO: -if company does well you make a shit-ton of money -if company does poorly you make a shit-ton of money Funny you say that, and it seems like the case. I actually was reviewing a company today where the executives did not get bonuses for two years straight, and they came up just short on their targets. I rarely see that. My point is that stock related compensation goes up in value directly with the stock market. Those comp tables will show the grant date fair value of the stock options. But if the stock doesn't move, the options are worthless. So when the market runs like it has due to the Fed's low interest rate policy, those executives are gaining substantial amounts of additional wealth. |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Fed Interest Rate Change? |
SomeGuy wrote: Hatchetman wrote: variable compensation package of CEO: -if company does well you make a shit-ton of money -if company does poorly you make a shit-ton of money It's part of the reason the quarter to quarter/ share price fixation process has taken over and ruined companies. Yes, MBA programs teach that you want to align executives with shareholders, so they suggest stock options. However, that does not eliminate the agency problem, especially the short term thinking of executives. Executives tend to win no matter what with the only thing in question is the degree of their gains. I can tell you long term cash bonus plans absolutely align management with shareholders.... |
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