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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:26 am 
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2002 was the best season ever for me. The Angels finally won and did it with a bullpen, timely hitting, and the Rally Monkey. When the A's had their streak the Angels only lost a few games during that stretch and after a very slow start were running the A's down. If I remember right the Twins had the same payroll as the A's. I hate the A's but respect Beane a lot as a GM. They're almost always competitive despite having a low payroll and playing in a dump.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:34 am 
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Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think the statistics show that in the long run, the offense benefits more from trying to hit over the shift than slapping around it. There's a reason that the defense is giving that space and it isn't because they believe that batters can't hit it over there. It's that they're willing to accept the single if a guy wants to go that route. It's a better result than a double off the wall. They want the powerful pull hitter to try to break the shift by slapping it to the other side. Doing so wouldn't be the victory for the offense that people believe it would.

Not making an out is still rule #1.


Is it though? I know that's become conventional wisdom along with the idea that a starting pitcher isn't responsible for his record and the idea that a pitcher's job is to limit runs. I would argue that the batter has to weigh the risk of making out against the reward of driving in the runners on base. I don't really want my $25 million a year cleanup hitter looking to take a walk with men on second and third so a guy who isn't as good as he is can take a crack at driving in the runs. Support for my argument is provided by the fact that quite often the pitcher is more than willing to allow that walk and consider it a victory.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:46 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think the statistics show that in the long run, the offense benefits more from trying to hit over the shift than slapping around it. There's a reason that the defense is giving that space and it isn't because they believe that batters can't hit it over there. It's that they're willing to accept the single if a guy wants to go that route. It's a better result than a double off the wall. They want the powerful pull hitter to try to break the shift by slapping it to the other side. Doing so wouldn't be the victory for the offense that people believe it would.

Not making an out is still rule #1.


Is it though? I know that's become conventional wisdom along with the idea that a starting pitcher isn't responsible for his record and the idea that a pitcher's job is to limit runs. I would argue that the batter has to weigh the risk of making out against the reward of driving in the runners on base. I don't really want my $25 million a year cleanup hitter looking to take a walk with men on second and third so a guy who isn't as good as he is can take a crack at driving in the runs. Support for my argument is provided by the fact that quite often the pitcher is more than willing to allow that walk and consider it a victory.


Exhibit #1: Jose Abreu...unless, of course, everyone thinks he just got better this year at the age of 32 after 6 seasons.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:56 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think the statistics show that in the long run, the offense benefits more from trying to hit over the shift than slapping around it. There's a reason that the defense is giving that space and it isn't because they believe that batters can't hit it over there. It's that they're willing to accept the single if a guy wants to go that route. It's a better result than a double off the wall. They want the powerful pull hitter to try to break the shift by slapping it to the other side. Doing so wouldn't be the victory for the offense that people believe it would.

Not making an out is still rule #1.


Is it though? I know that's become conventional wisdom along with the idea that a starting pitcher isn't responsible for his record and the idea that a pitcher's job is to limit runs. I would argue that the batter has to weigh the risk of making out against the reward of driving in the runners on base. I don't really want my $25 million a year cleanup hitter looking to take a walk with men on second and third so a guy who isn't as good as he is can take a crack at driving in the runs. Support for my argument is provided by the fact that quite often the pitcher is more than willing to allow that walk and consider it a victory.

This is far more situational than you're giving it credit for.
If my $25 m cleanup man is up with 2 RISP and 2 outs I'd rather see him take a walk than pound one on the ground into a right field shift. And the guy batting 5th should be a guy you can trust to hit for decent average so why not trust him to hit a gapper or a single?
I feel as though your approach is indicative of the problem facing baseball today, ie the true three outcome. Fans are not enjoying this.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:18 pm 
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JustAGayGuy wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think the statistics show that in the long run, the offense benefits more from trying to hit over the shift than slapping around it. There's a reason that the defense is giving that space and it isn't because they believe that batters can't hit it over there. It's that they're willing to accept the single if a guy wants to go that route. It's a better result than a double off the wall. They want the powerful pull hitter to try to break the shift by slapping it to the other side. Doing so wouldn't be the victory for the offense that people believe it would.

Not making an out is still rule #1.


Is it though? I know that's become conventional wisdom along with the idea that a starting pitcher isn't responsible for his record and the idea that a pitcher's job is to limit runs. I would argue that the batter has to weigh the risk of making out against the reward of driving in the runners on base. I don't really want my $25 million a year cleanup hitter looking to take a walk with men on second and third so a guy who isn't as good as he is can take a crack at driving in the runs. Support for my argument is provided by the fact that quite often the pitcher is more than willing to allow that walk and consider it a victory.

This is far more situational than you're giving it credit for.
If my $25 m cleanup man is up with 2 RISP and 2 outs I'd rather see him take a walk than pound one on the ground into a right field shift. And the guy batting 5th should be a guy you can trust to hit for decent average so why not trust him to hit a gapper or a single?
I feel as though your approach is indicative of the problem facing baseball today, ie the true three outcome. Fans are not enjoying this.


I'm going to argue it's the exact opposite. The fascination with the walk is what has rendered baseball boring as fuck.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:25 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think the statistics show that in the long run, the offense benefits more from trying to hit over the shift than slapping around it. There's a reason that the defense is giving that space and it isn't because they believe that batters can't hit it over there. It's that they're willing to accept the single if a guy wants to go that route. It's a better result than a double off the wall. They want the powerful pull hitter to try to break the shift by slapping it to the other side. Doing so wouldn't be the victory for the offense that people believe it would.

Not making an out is still rule #1.


Is it though? I know that's become conventional wisdom along with the idea that a starting pitcher isn't responsible for his record and the idea that a pitcher's job is to limit runs. I would argue that the batter has to weigh the risk of making out against the reward of driving in the runners on base. I don't really want my $25 million a year cleanup hitter looking to take a walk with men on second and third so a guy who isn't as good as he is can take a crack at driving in the runs. Support for my argument is provided by the fact that quite often the pitcher is more than willing to allow that walk and consider it a victory.

There's a big difference between taking a walk and looking for a walk. No one is more vociferous than me about OBP being flawed. As for your scenario, the pitcher is LOOKING or an out, and the walk is plan B. Otherwise, it would be an intentional walk.


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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:30 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think the statistics show that in the long run, the offense benefits more from trying to hit over the shift than slapping around it. There's a reason that the defense is giving that space and it isn't because they believe that batters can't hit it over there. It's that they're willing to accept the single if a guy wants to go that route. It's a better result than a double off the wall. They want the powerful pull hitter to try to break the shift by slapping it to the other side. Doing so wouldn't be the victory for the offense that people believe it would.

Not making an out is still rule #1.


Is it though? I know that's become conventional wisdom along with the idea that a starting pitcher isn't responsible for his record and the idea that a pitcher's job is to limit runs. I would argue that the batter has to weigh the risk of making out against the reward of driving in the runners on base. I don't really want my $25 million a year cleanup hitter looking to take a walk with men on second and third so a guy who isn't as good as he is can take a crack at driving in the runs. Support for my argument is provided by the fact that quite often the pitcher is more than willing to allow that walk and consider it a victory.

There's a big difference between taking a walk and looking for a walk. No one is more vociferous than me about OBP being flawed. As for your scenario, the pitcher is LOOKING or an out, and the walk is plan B. Otherwise, it would be an intentional walk.


Of course he's looking for an out. If he can get the batter in a bad count with unhittable pitches he increases his percentages of getting one. But he isn't going to throw him anything to hit on purpose. So it becomes a matter of the batter waiting for a mistake. If it goes the other way, and the count becomes favorable to the batter, it often becomes an "unintentional intentional" walk.

What we're talking about here is the difference between Grandal and Abreu. I know which one I want up in that situation. And it ain't the one I think is less likely to make out.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:34 pm 
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The migration away from artificial turf (for good reasons), the shrinking of foul territory (to add more expensive box seats close to the action), the bringing in of the fences, and advanced video such as Statcast and Driveline are all contributing to focus on three true outcomes hitters and high velocity pitchers who can survive their inevitable Tommy John surgery.

Plus they are easy to scout. Baseball has lost the Buck O'Neil types who could scout three very different hitters in Ernie Banks, Billy Williams, and Lou Brock and land three HOF players.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:44 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think the statistics show that in the long run, the offense benefits more from trying to hit over the shift than slapping around it. There's a reason that the defense is giving that space and it isn't because they believe that batters can't hit it over there. It's that they're willing to accept the single if a guy wants to go that route. It's a better result than a double off the wall. They want the powerful pull hitter to try to break the shift by slapping it to the other side. Doing so wouldn't be the victory for the offense that people believe it would.

Not making an out is still rule #1.


Is it though? I know that's become conventional wisdom along with the idea that a starting pitcher isn't responsible for his record and the idea that a pitcher's job is to limit runs. I would argue that the batter has to weigh the risk of making out against the reward of driving in the runners on base. I don't really want my $25 million a year cleanup hitter looking to take a walk with men on second and third so a guy who isn't as good as he is can take a crack at driving in the runs. Support for my argument is provided by the fact that quite often the pitcher is more than willing to allow that walk and consider it a victory.

There's a big difference between taking a walk and looking for a walk. No one is more vociferous than me about OBP being flawed. As for your scenario, the pitcher is LOOKING or an out, and the walk is plan B. Otherwise, it would be an intentional walk.


Of course he's looking for an out. If he can get the batter in a bad count with unhittable pitches he increases his percentages of getting one. But he isn't going to throw him anything to hit on purpose. So it becomes a matter of the batter waiting for a mistake. If it goes the other way, and the count becomes favorable to the batter, it often becomes an "unintentional intentional" walk.

What we're talking about here is the difference between Grandal and Abreu. I know which one I want up in that situation. And it ain't the one I think is less likely to make out.

A better comparison would be Pujols/RyanHoward when Howard had his few prime years(I want Howard up). I agree with you when there are special hitters up, but those are rare. Unless your name is Abreu or Trout, etc. I don't give a pitcher a free out by swinging at garbage.


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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:13 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm going to argue it's the exact opposite. The fascination with the walk is what has rendered baseball boring as fuck.

That is an interesting thought. Perhaps that was true between 2002 and 2018 or 2019 but this season that's just not the case. Strikeout percentage is way up. This season is unusual, to be sure, but now more than ever its all strikeouts, home runs or nothing. Granted by this time hitting is just catching up to pitching as it usually takes a month or so for that to happen and its not as obvious in a 162 game season as it is in a 60 game season. But to a guy like me, working a 10 pitch at bat and drawing a walk adds to the tension of the game in a sublime way.
Personally I'm frustrated with the swinging for the fences approach. I don’t recall the game exactly but it was early in this season where the North Siders were in extras and started the inning with RISP. All you need is a couple deep balls or one good gapper but everyone swung for the fences on both teams. Its frustrating to see. Get the ball in play, advance the runner and win.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:17 pm 
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JustAGayGuy wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm going to argue it's the exact opposite. The fascination with the walk is what has rendered baseball boring as fuck.

That is an interesting thought. Perhaps that was true between 2002 and 2018 or 2019 but this season that's just not the case. Strikeout percentage is way up. This season is unusual, to be sure, but now more than ever its all strikeouts, home runs or nothing. Granted by this time hitting is just catching up to pitching as it usually takes a month or so for that to happen and its not as obvious in a 162 game season as it is in a 60 game season. But to a guy like me, working a 10 pitch at bat and drawing a walk adds to the tension of the game in a sublime way.
Personally I'm frustrated with the swinging for the fences approach. I don’t recall the game exactly but it was early in this season where the North Siders were in extras and started the inning with RISP. All you need is a couple deep balls or one good gapper but everyone swung for the fences on both teams. Its frustrating to see. Get the ball in play, advance the runner and win.

The 10 pitch walk is the exception to the rule that the Stat named OBP has put a major crimp in the game.


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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:20 pm 
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JustAGayGuy wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm going to argue it's the exact opposite. The fascination with the walk is what has rendered baseball boring as fuck.

That is an interesting thought. Perhaps that was true between 2002 and 2018 or 2019 but this season that's just not the case. Strikeout percentage is way up. This season is unusual, to be sure, but now more than ever its all strikeouts, home runs or nothing. Granted by this time hitting is just catching up to pitching as it usually takes a month or so for that to happen and its not as obvious in a 162 game season as it is in a 60 game season. But to a guy like me, working a 10 pitch at bat and drawing a walk adds to the tension of the game in a sublime way.
Personally I'm frustrated with the swinging for the fences approach. I don’t recall the game exactly but it was early in this season where the North Siders were in extras and started the inning with RISP. All you need is a couple deep balls or one good gapper but everyone swung for the fences on both teams. Its frustrating to see. Get the ball in play, advance the runner and win.



Well, my take is that the fascination with the walk isn't really working well for the offenses. As you say, strikeouts are way up and have been over the last several seasons while walk rates have remained relatively static. What that suggests to me is that batters are getting themselves into bad counts by watching pitches they could be hitting and then ultimately striking out more than walking.

In any case, we have a boring game on our hands. People don't pay to see guys walk. Even if it were a successful strategy. I'm so thankful to have Nick Madrigal on my team.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:21 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
The 10 pitch walk is the exception to the rule that the Stat named OBP has put a major crimp in the game.

Interesting. Are you saying that guys who will strive to take walks and get P&J singles are ruining baseball?
Maybe I'm misunderstanding your post.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:30 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Well, my take is that the fascination with the walk isn't really working well for the offenses. As you say, strikeouts are way up and have been over the last several seasons while walk rates have remained relatively static. What that suggests to me is that batters are getting themselves into bad counts by watching pitches they could be hitting and then ultimately striking out more than walking.

In any case, we have a boring game on our hands. People don't pay to see guys walk. Even if it were a successful strategy. I'm so thankful to have Nick Madrigal on my team.

Interesting. I believe we find ourselves on opposite ends of the debate here. See, I pay (when I go to games which is pretty rare given the expense of such an endeavor) to see wins. And if a high OBP guy draws a walk I'd argue the two run homer is more exciting than the solo bomb. It pains me to see Bryant try to be an uppercut HR swinger and push a sad sub 600 OPS. What could he be if he leveled his swing and drove those wwrning track shots into the walls at the gap instead? I love a crazy triple, takes a hard hit ball, speed, reading the defense and high quality baserunning. 4 tools.
Now who doesn't love a majestic 430 foot shot? Nobody. But nuance is lacking in the modern game.

In my opinion, what makes baseball boring is the Nomaring of every at bat. Step out, adjust your gloves for 10 seconds, step in, dig in, swing a few times, adjust your balls, adjust your feet, take a pitch, step out, adjust your gloves et cetera. Get in, dig in, stay in and lets play the game. Time between pitches, either by a slow pitcher or a fidgety batter makes my mind wander and I find myself no longer immersed in the game.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:39 pm 
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JustAGayGuy wrote:
Nardi wrote:
The 10 pitch walk is the exception to the rule that the Stat named OBP has put a major crimp in the game.

Interesting. Are you saying that guys who will strive to take walks and get P&J singles are ruining baseball?
Maybe I'm misunderstanding your post.

No one, NO ONE, should strive for a walk. You TAKE a walk


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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:44 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
No one, NO ONE, should strive for a walk. You TAKE a walk

Oh now I get what you're saying. My apologies. Yes, you are correct in that regard.
My only counterpoint, soft as it may be, is that I believe there are plenty of hitters looking to foul off a 4th ball rather than taking their base. That's not aw rooty to me.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:52 pm 
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JustAGayGuy wrote:
Nardi wrote:
No one, NO ONE, should strive for a walk. You TAKE a walk

Oh now I get what you're saying. My apologies. Yes, you are correct in that regard.
My only counterpoint, soft as it may be, is that I believe there are plenty of hitters looking to foul off a 4th ball rather than taking their base. That's not aw rooty to me.

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