The Doctor Of Style wrote:
Caleb Williams: By The Numbers.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2024 ... g-accuracyQuote:
Williams has had great games against bad defenses, but he has been inconsistent overall. His 83.0 passer rating ranks 26th among the 36 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 125 passes, and he’s behind fellow rookies Jayden Daniels (106.7) and Drake Maye (85.1). Williams faces Maye and the Patriots on Sunday at Soldier Field
Regardless of the Bears’ imperfections around Williams, the ball ultimately is in his hands. Turnovers, which he mostly has avoided, and bad throws are squarely on him. Pro Football Reference has charted Williams’ throws as on-target 68.9% of the time, third-worst among qualifying quarterbacks.
He’s 30th in the NFL with a 61.4 completion percentage, 23rd in yards with 1,665 and 21st in touchdown passes with nine. He has the 18th-fewest interceptions with five. Among the four rookies who have played significantly — Williams, Daniels, Maye and the Broncos’ Bo Nix — Williams leads only in touchdown passes.
Pro Football Focus ranked Williams 33rd at his position, behind the other rookies, and 42nd when under pressure..
*Yawn*
Clickbait, nothing more.
Most of this is meaningless because we're talking about a rookie QB on a bad team with no O-line in front of him. Its funny that the article mentions 'rankings' by the numbers when you can easily go back and look at many other rookie QB's who have gone on to be very successful in their careers that ranked as bad or worse than Caleb at this point in their rookie years.
But since everyone likes 'numbers' so much lets have a conversation about that.. specifically the vaunted 'QBR' rating so many naysayers like to parade around as if its some magic 8 ball of infinite future success and wisdom..
Caleb currently sits at 42.0. Terrible right? No chance he could go on to improve after this..
Lets start with Joe Burrow. He finished his rookie season with an amazing 48.5 QBR that year. Spectacular.
Baker Mayfield? A little better with a 51.2.
Josh Allen? 49.8
Jalen Hurts? 33.8.. only a 4 game sample size but don't worry..
..heres where it gets fun..
Mathew Stafford -who started 10 games- and has easily had a HoF trajectory especially with a SB ring now stapled to his resume.. 37.1. I mean, how could he have gone on to future success? The QBR clearly proves it wasn't possible.
How bout Lamar Jackson? You know, the guy who seems to win MVP every other season.. yeah he finished with a 42.6.. and thats with a good coach and a pretty good O-line backing him.
But I'm not finished here. Oh no, I want to drive this point specifically about 'QBR' home so here goes..
Justin Herbert currently sits at around 56.6 QBR for the season. 'Well NME' I hear you say 'you see, thats like the highest one you've listed in this post so far and its almost 15 points higher than Calebs current rating..'
Well dear reader, thats true but consider this.. Herbert has played in 8 games so far this season.. his team is currently 5-3, in four of those games he has had a QB rating of 100 points or higher and over 90 points or better in the other four games with a 92 being his lowest. He has 10 TD's to just 1 interception, and hes completing at least 65% of his passes with only one game out of 8 going below 60% (at 59%).
Yeah, I'm not buying into any of this 'by the numbers' nonsense metric nerds are championing as their mic drop on a rookie QB and it being some possible predictor of future success or failure. Its meaningless. Plenty of rookie QB's struggle their 1st season. Its common, its actually the norm, and whats funny to me at the end of all this.. when specifically talking about the Bears, Caleb has vastly outperformed the 1st season of any QB we've seen here. He's even on pace to outperform Jay Cutler's 1st season in a Bears uniform.. the same Jay Cutler who was in his 3rd year as an NFL QB that had just thrown for 4500 yards the season prior and holds most of the Bears passing records.
Oh I can see it now 'HA thats not a high bar to clear'.. and sure, thats true, but he's at least clearing that bar in his 1st year with no O-line and garbage coaching around him on a team thats in the midst of quitting on the coach.
And when almost everyone -including the 'Caleb is a bum' crew can admit there is no O-line here, and poor coaching.. its hard for me to take anyone also saying 'this kid sucks' seriously. As if those prior two things wouldn't have any effect on a rookie QB. The absurdity of those thoughts combined is pretty telling of the ones regurgitating those thoughts.
So, go on and dance around your fires in the middle of the night chanting 'Rumpelstiltskin' clutching every click bait article about stat metrics you can find comfort in to prove whatever point it is you're trying to make.
Me? Imma let this play out. Just like I did for Mitch, and just like I did for Justin. If Caleb is still the same dude after 3 seasons the picture becomes a lot clearer and much more undeniable. Until then, its all 'huff'..