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MattInTheCrown
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:35 pm 
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Nas wrote:
MattInTheCrown wrote:
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To clarify: based on the above speculation, the idea is that you backload the contract for big dollars. If you win Superbowls, you have the option of keeping him in year 6 and 7. The base salary in the first five years starts very low, and grows over time, with the bonus money prorated over 5 years so as to minimize the cap damage in any given year.

If it's indeed structured this way, it's great in year 1, because it's only a $12M cap hit. The downside would be that you're basically married to him until year 5, which is sort of the situation we find ourselves in with Peppers right now, where we can cut him, but a big portion of the cap hit will remain based on his prorated bonus money.

I think it's a good bet that this is pretty close to the actual contract structure.


So this is a 3 year deal. If he sucks they drop him before year 4. I can live with this. They could still draft a QB this year.

No, based on that structure, it's essentially a 5 year deal.

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MattInTheCrown
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:36 pm 
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spanky wrote:
Spaulding wrote:
I think it's too much no matter how you look at it.

This is what the big hang up is for most people, really.

The starting QB is always going to be the highest paid player, aside from the miracle young draft picks like Wilson. Teams are gonna blow stupid money on a variety of people every single year. I'm ok if it's on the QB.

Is the $ they've paid Peppers the last few years "good money" or was it "too much"? The answer is obvious. Cedric Benson - money well spent? I could go on and on.

I'd rather spend the crazy money on a QB all day every day.

I think people would be more ok with it if it wasn't a guy we've seen play for several years and know in advance isn't very good. If they re-signed Peppers to his current contract at this point, for example, I think there'd be lots of outrage.

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Bucky Chris
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:38 pm 
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MattInTheCrown wrote:
Nas wrote:
MattInTheCrown wrote:
Image

To clarify: based on the above speculation, the idea is that you backload the contract for big dollars. If you win Superbowls, you have the option of keeping him in year 6 and 7. The base salary in the first five years starts very low, and grows over time, with the bonus money prorated over 5 years so as to minimize the cap damage in any given year.

If it's indeed structured this way, it's great in year 1, because it's only a $12M cap hit. The downside would be that you're basically married to him until year 5, which is sort of the situation we find ourselves in with Peppers right now, where we can cut him, but a big portion of the cap hit will remain based on his prorated bonus money.

I think it's a good bet that this is pretty close to the actual contract structure.


So this is a 3 year deal. If he sucks they drop him before year 4. I can live with this. They could still draft a QB this year.

No, based on that structure, it's essentially a 5 year deal.


I may not understand that chart then. Because by the 5th year, he's earned way over the guaranteed number.
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:39 pm 
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34-year old defensive ends are comparable to 31-year old QBs?

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Kirkwood
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:42 pm 
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Bucky Chris wrote:

I may not understand that chart then. Because by the 5th year, he's earned way over the guaranteed number.

Base salary is separate. The bonus is what's spread over 5 years. Cutting him after 3rd year leaves over 20 million in dead money.
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spanky
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:42 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
34-year old defensive ends are comparable to 31-year old QBs?

I'm not sure if this is directed at me, but Peppers was 30 when he got here, I think.

He has been severely over paid during his years here.

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Spaulding
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:43 pm 
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I think he made 8 or so the last few years. I'd like to pay him that :wink: but could have gone 10-12 maybe. He's not worth 16 and definitely not 18 in my head. I guess that's my problem, I'd rather some other team pay him.

I was against the peppers signing too. I have trouble tying up that much money. Especially in cutlers case because of the production. I was thinking today he was great in the games when the offense was shit, I felt like he was what kept them in it. Now that the offense is better I feel like he holds them back someway. Weird.
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Nas
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:44 pm 
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MattInTheCrown wrote:
Nas wrote:
MattInTheCrown wrote:
Image

To clarify: based on the above speculation, the idea is that you backload the contract for big dollars. If you win Superbowls, you have the option of keeping him in year 6 and 7. The base salary in the first five years starts very low, and grows over time, with the bonus money prorated over 5 years so as to minimize the cap damage in any given year.

If it's indeed structured this way, it's great in year 1, because it's only a $12M cap hit. The downside would be that you're basically married to him until year 5, which is sort of the situation we find ourselves in with Peppers right now, where we can cut him, but a big portion of the cap hit will remain based on his prorated bonus money.

I think it's a good bet that this is pretty close to the actual contract structure.


So this is a 3 year deal. If he sucks they drop him before year 4. I can live with this. They could still draft a QB this year.

No, based on that structure, it's essentially a 5 year deal.


Not true. The language of the guarantees will determine how long the deal is. His guarantees could be as simple as roster bonuses. That means if the Bears cut him by a certain date they don't own him anything.

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spanky
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:46 pm 
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Spaulding wrote:
I was against the peppers signing too. I have trouble tying up that much money. Especially in cutlers case because of the production. I was thinking today he was great in the games when the offense was shit, I felt like he was what kept them in it. Now that the offense is better I feel like he holds them back someway. Weird.

But that is the going rate for a long-term starting QB. If you want one tied up, that's what you pay.

Just ask all the people that hate this deal. They say "he's being paid as much as......." and then they (collectively) list the last 8-10 QBs that have signed long term deals. And there will be more in the next few years in the same ballpark. That's what QBs cost in today's system.

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Big Chicagoan
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:48 pm 
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spanky wrote:
Spaulding wrote:
I was against the peppers signing too. I have trouble tying up that much money. Especially in cutlers case because of the production. I was thinking today he was great in the games when the offense was shit, I felt like he was what kept them in it. Now that the offense is better I feel like he holds them back someway. Weird.

But that is the going rate for a long-term starting QB. If you want one tied up, that's what you pay.

Just ask all the people that hate this deal. They say "he's being paid as much as......." and then they (collectively) list the last 8-10 QBs that have signed long term deals. And there will be more in the next few years in the same ballpark. That's what QBs cost in today's system.


He's Edwin Jackson.
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MattInTheCrown
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:49 pm 
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Nas wrote:
MattInTheCrown wrote:
Nas wrote:
MattInTheCrown wrote:
Image

To clarify: based on the above speculation, the idea is that you backload the contract for big dollars. If you win Superbowls, you have the option of keeping him in year 6 and 7. The base salary in the first five years starts very low, and grows over time, with the bonus money prorated over 5 years so as to minimize the cap damage in any given year.

If it's indeed structured this way, it's great in year 1, because it's only a $12M cap hit. The downside would be that you're basically married to him until year 5, which is sort of the situation we find ourselves in with Peppers right now, where we can cut him, but a big portion of the cap hit will remain based on his prorated bonus money.

I think it's a good bet that this is pretty close to the actual contract structure.


So this is a 3 year deal. If he sucks they drop him before year 4. I can live with this. They could still draft a QB this year.

No, based on that structure, it's essentially a 5 year deal.


Not true. The language of the guarantees will determine how long the deal is. His guarantees could be as simple as roster bonuses. That means if the Bears cut him by a certain date they don't own him anything.

I'm talking about the specific structure in the chart. If the guaranteed salary came in the form of prorated bonus, it'd be a five year hit to the cap of about $11M per year.

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MattInTheCrown
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:50 pm 
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spanky wrote:
Spaulding wrote:
I was against the peppers signing too. I have trouble tying up that much money. Especially in cutlers case because of the production. I was thinking today he was great in the games when the offense was shit, I felt like he was what kept them in it. Now that the offense is better I feel like he holds them back someway. Weird.

But that is the going rate for a long-term starting QB. If you want one tied up, that's what you pay.

Just ask all the people that hate this deal. They say "he's being paid as much as......." and then they (collectively) list the last 8-10 QBs that have signed long term deals. And there will be more in the next few years in the same ballpark. That's what QBs cost in today's system.

How often have those been wise signings?

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spanky
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:52 pm 
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MattInTheCrown wrote:
spanky wrote:
Spaulding wrote:
I was against the peppers signing too. I have trouble tying up that much money. Especially in cutlers case because of the production. I was thinking today he was great in the games when the offense was shit, I felt like he was what kept them in it. Now that the offense is better I feel like he holds them back someway. Weird.

But that is the going rate for a long-term starting QB. If you want one tied up, that's what you pay.

Just ask all the people that hate this deal. They say "he's being paid as much as......." and then they (collectively) list the last 8-10 QBs that have signed long term deals. And there will be more in the next few years in the same ballpark. That's what QBs cost in today's system.

How often have those been wise signings?

Every single time that a team wanted a long term QB in the NFL.

I wish - I honestly wish - that they could sign a steady, long term, 30 year old QB for 7 years at the league minimum. They would have much more $ to throw at the defense, etc.
That does not happen in the NFL.

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Spaulding
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:56 pm 
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I make fun of those teams and now we are one of them. He's going to need to clean up the mistakes and win.
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Nas
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:57 pm 
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MattInTheCrown wrote:



I'm talking about the specific structure in the chart. If the guaranteed salary came in the form of prorated bonus, it'd be a five year hit to the cap of about $11M per year.


Bonus money is always prorated. The language of the contract will determine when the Bears can get out of the deal. The structure doesn't mean anything.

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spanky
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:58 pm 
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Spaulding wrote:
I make fun of those teams and now we are one of them. He's going to need to clean up the mistakes and win.

But there are a dozen of those teams/QBs now or more. It's gets tougher to make fun of them when they are closer to becoming the majority.

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veganfan21
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:59 pm 
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I don't think it's helpful to attach a specific price range to Cutler. The question is what is the rate for an above average QB who fits your system? The answer these days is about whatever Jaylioe Cutmanflacberger makes.

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Spaulding
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:01 pm 
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I think I'll always laugh at teams that over pay a quarterback that, when it really comes down to it, just isn't very good.
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:01 pm 
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spanky wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
34-year old defensive ends are comparable to 31-year old QBs?

I'm not sure if this is directed at me, but Peppers was 30 when he got here, I think.

He has been severely over paid during his years here.


No.

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Nas
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:02 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
I don't think it's helpful to attach a specific price range to Cutler. The question is what is the rate for an above average QB who fits your system? The answer these days is about whatever Jaylioe Cutmanflacberger makes.


What does Orton make?

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veganfan21
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:05 pm 
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Nas wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
I don't think it's helpful to attach a specific price range to Cutler. The question is what is the rate for an above average QB who fits your system? The answer these days is about whatever Jaylioe Cutmanflacberger makes.


What does Orton make?


Is he above average to good? I don't think so.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:05 pm 
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Nas wrote:
What does Orton make?

Bad personal grooming decisions?

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Spaulding
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:06 pm 
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Orton, This year around 900k, he made close to 9m at one point in Denver I think because KC had to pick up a couple in the trade I think. Ask rick he'd probably know.
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Nas
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:07 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Nas wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
I don't think it's helpful to attach a specific price range to Cutler. The question is what is the rate for an above average QB who fits your system? The answer these days is about whatever Jaylioe Cutmanflacberger makes.


What does Orton make?


Is he above average to good? I don't think so.


I think Orton is average. Where would you rank him?

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Spaulding
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
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veganfan21 wrote:

Is he above average to good? I don't think so.


You might regret saying that. :P
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spanky
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:11 pm 
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Nas wrote:
I think Orton is average. Where would you rank him?

Orton is a back up to one of the other QBs that has a contract that Spaulding laughs at. I'm shocked that all of the teams that do not have an "average" QB wouldn't pay him starter money.

I think we may all need to re-calibrate our own personal interpretations of "average" and "overpaid".

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Spaulding
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:16 pm 
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You think Romo is worth 6-years $108 million, with 55 million guaranteed?

Orton is a great back up.
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veganfan21
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:19 pm 
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Spaulding wrote:
You think Romo is worth 6-years $108 million, with 55 million guaranteed?

Orton is a great back up.


That's what it takes to secure an above average to good starting QB in today's league. Guys are going to be paid more than they're worth just because better than average QBs are in high demand.

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spanky
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:20 pm 
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Spaulding wrote:
You think Romo is worth 6-years $108 million, with 55 million guaranteed?

Yes. There is no question, is there?
Just like Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Eli, Satfford, Rothlisberger and all the rest of them.

That is the going rate for a long term deal for a QB in the prime ages of their career. All of these deals show us this.

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veganfan21
 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:20 pm 
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Nas wrote:

I think Orton is average. Where would you rank him?


I haven't followed him closely since his initial year in Denver, but I think it's fair to say he's a level or two lower than the Cutler-Manning-Flacco-Big Ben blob.

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