What ranking system are you basing this on?

He was top 3 in QBR IIRC.

Just the way Cutler quarterbacks prohibits him from being successful for an extended period thats why his rating / ranking will never be consistently stellar. Brett Favre could get away with doing what he did and still be elite . Jay Cutler can't.

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It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Ok

BTW, we have to start distinguishing between ESPN's QBR and traditional QB rating

I propose

QBR = ESPN stat

QB RTG = Traditional

I don't think he started the season that way but that really isn't the point. He has to be at or near his best for the majority of the season. We all know he has the tools but at his age it is unlikely he will put it all together. That's why some wanted a QB in round 1.

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Who is it? Because I don't think one will be there at 14.

After Bridgewater and Bortles, heck I don't think Manziel is even going to be there now, the rest is a big pool of guys that could be very good or at least decent.

Those guys aren't going to be 1st, some not even 2nd round guys. There will be guys in the 3rd and probably 4th that are just as likely to be decent as anybody you'd get at 14 or in the second round.

The exception might be Derek Carr, if you love him, he might drop to 14 but he'll probably go to the Vikings at 8. But, I wouldn't call him any kind of can't miss superstar.

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You know me like that.

Not really. This is a rich QB draft. At least 1 of the 10-15 selected will be a stud. The ones drafted early have an even greater chance. Rarely do players become great after being above average/average for 8 years.

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Getting an elite quarterback is a long shot. Most likely, with a first round pick, you get an average quarterback who is cheap with the potential to be elite. Of course you can miss and get a Ponder or Gabbert. You can also get Kapernick or Wilson.

We are missing out on the potential of something special to keep a guy who returns to his standard level of around the 12th best quarterback in the league. I'm just not as excited about having someone who is better than Carson Palmer as the cornerstone of the franchise to the point where I'm afraid that a top 15 NFL QB draft pick is an unthinkable options compared to Jay Cutler.

Instead, we'll get a 4th round pick, and then we can hope he is Kyle Orton.

The funny thing is that during the Cutlerpocalypse, that people said "Draft a quarterback late and then let him sit for a few years like Aaron Rodgers". Well, where was Rodgers picked? It wasn't the fourth round.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

This is where you lose me. It seems like you're saying this is an especially great QB class (which almost never works out btw)

I mean, not drafting a QB this year is the same as not drafting one any other year

Top 5 is a tall order

Cutler is sort of a unique situation considering the turnover at offensive coordinator but it's still highly unlikely he will become a superstar at this stage in his career. There would be "hope" that one of these guys could. They would also cost less in 5 years than Cutler will cost this year too. IIRC you believed they should draft a QB in round 1 too.

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Manning and Brady will be gone in 3 years and Brees won't be far behind. Rodgers is the only guy you can lock into a top 5 spot after them.

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THis makes it easier for Cutler to get top 10 than it does for a guy from this draft to get to top 5

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I think a month or two ago the idea intrigued me. I don't think they should at this point. I believe I was pointing out how infrequently you are actually able to find anybody of quality outside of the 1st round. In this draft, at 14, there isn't anybody that I think they should take.

I do think this draft might be a particular opportunity for a QB, though, just because there are so many. Also, it looks like the top 10 is going to be a run on QBs to the point that the teams that have to have a QB are getting it out of the way right away. That leaves a number of guys that should drop a few rounds into the 3rd and 4th that might otherwise get drafted higher in other years.

That said, I also don't see anybody that I can point to in that group and say "that guy is a gem". There are a few solid prospects like McCarron and Murray that I think you can say that they probably have a floor of decent. Boyd was a top 10 guy before the season and now he's probably 3rd or 4th round. My guy, Fales, should be there in the 4th. Garoppolo is intriguing and there are a couple other guys like him that are mini-lottery tickets. It's a crapshoot after Bridgewater IMO.

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This year is really good. Next year will be even better because a few players decided to stay that would have been high picks.

Don't take it that I'm saying that a sure fire hall of famer is available at pick 14. I just want the chance to see a truly elite quarterback in Chicago. The odds are significantly better drafting in the first two rounds, with the first round being much better than the second. If we end up with Ryan Tannehill I can accept it. At least we went for Colin Kapernick or Aaron Rodgers.

I just see Jay Cutler leading us to a lot of .500 seasons as better quarterbacks continue to outshine him. The worst part is how many younger quarterbacks are doing it now. I can accept that he'll never be Brees, or Manning, but now we have to start accepting he is being passed by Kapernick, Wilson, Luck, and Newton.

I guess I just don't see the upside of Jay Cutler. It seems like the Bears as a team are just treading water with him. They'll probably win 8 or 9 games pretty much every year and hope to sneak into the playoffs. If they draft a rookie and he ends up giving us a 5 win season did we really lose that much? I doubt many Bears fans think we'll be a 12 or 13 win team next year anyways. Let's attempt to really stabilize the position rather than being grateful that Jay Cutler isn't Rick Mirer.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Based on what I saw from Cutler in Year 2 under Martz I believe he can be a top 10 QB this year. He needs to be no worse than top 7 for the next 3 years though. I doubt that will happen. Health is also an issue.

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People said the same thing about Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, and Kapernick. Almost all relevant NFL quarterbacks come from rounds 1 or 2 with those numbers being skewed towards round 1.

The Bears have basically locked in not drafting that high for the next two years. You'll get someone we hope is as good as the great Kyle Orton by year 3.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

QBR is what ESPN calls it, so that's already established.

You can name a few guys that succeeded. Some will. The point is looking at all the first round picks who don't succeed and are either out of the league, backups or bad.

The problem is that Cutler is seemingly passed by younger quarterbacks every year. Geno Smith and EJ Manuel seem to be the exception. I guess if we count Nick Foles as more than a one year wonder then it has been pretty much every year in Chicago.

Would it surprise you if two younger QB's pass him next year too?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

So, you're saying for the record that nobody after 14 is going to be better than Kyle Orton? I disagree.

Rodgers was still the first QB taken in that draft. Once you get to the 5th or 6th QB taken, it matters less what round that is.

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No. I said nothing close to that. I don't get it. I think even later in round one is a good place to get a quarterback.

He was second. Also, I'm not sure that is true. There are multiple drafts where I can say the 3rd or 4th qb taken was as good as the first qb taken in other years. Some years are stronger than others. Last year was bad. This year is good. Next year should be even better.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

First round QB picks that I wouldn't want over Cutler since 2009:

Manuel
Tannehill
Weeden
Locker
Gabbert
Ponder
Bradford
Tebow
Stafford
Sanchez
Freeman

Undecided:
RG3


Want more than Cutler:
Cam
Luck

Notable exceptions are Wilson who I want more than Cutler, and Smith/Pryor, who I don't. Undecided on Kap.

Pretty accurate.

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Elections have consequences.

You said anybody we get after rounds 1 or 2 is somebody we'd hope to be as good as Kyle Orton by year 3. So, who are the QBs between Carr and round 3 that the Bears are missing on? McCarron? I'm not sure there will be any other QBs drafted in the 1st/2nd.

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Round 1

Locker
Tannehill
Newton
Luck
Stafford
RG3

Everything else

Foles
Wilson
Kaepernick

Age plays a role for some.

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GO BEARS!!!

You are crazy if you don't think Bradford and Stafford are at least comparable to Jay Cutler. Stafford is most certainly better. I'm higher on Bradford than others but he started off slow and his contract was a killer but they changed that. They are also younger. RGIII, assuming he's healthy is also above him since potential matters too.

So, that is 5 of them.

If we were talking Philip Rivers who has shown realistic ability to be elite then it's a different conversation. Jay Cutler is consistently slightly above average. I'd rather go for the home run rather than sitting on Cutler for the next 3 years winning about 50% of the time.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Stafford is only 25 and already better than Cutler. Wouldn't be surprised to see Tannehill eclipse jay either.

Bradford doesnt have Cutlers arm and Stafford is not better than Cutler. He makes the same mistakes and makes even worse throws when he throws from one of his 18 different arm slots.

I never liked him at Georgia, he always threw the ball high in college.

Stafford, isnt as mobile.

And take away Calvin Johnson from Stafford and I honestly dont think Stafford has a job still.

This is not to say Jay doesnt have his faults, but he is a better QB than Stafford who without a ton of jump balls to calvin, his stats and career are below average.

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Right, but people on here are saying QBR and meaning traditional rating