One of the all time great D-coordinators against an unproven second year guy, one of the biggest coaching mismatches in week two.

Broncos have to travel late and will be on a short week. If there is ever a 'good' time to play a Fangio team, week two is it.

_________________

Bears defense just held a healthy Aaron Rodgers to 10 points. I don’t care who the Broncos are trotting out at QB, it ain’t Rodgers. And this will be the game Pagano picks to really work in his own play calling knowing Fangio will have the blueprints to dissecting his own defense. Pagano stuck with Fangios template against Rodgers and it worked well, this week I think we see more of Paganos tricks with this defense.. and Fangio doesn’t have the keys to that. I’m wondering if Pagano is going to disguise some of his play calls in Fangio looks to fuck with him.


And Nagy doesn’t call our defense.


Fangio is also a helluva d-coordinator.. head coaching is a different animal that will no doubt remove him some from 100% watching over Denver’s defense.


It’s an interesting matchup and I think a good early test for the Bears offense and (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. Getting thrown in the fire early against a good defense when you’re coming off a loss to your rival is good for the Bears, builds character.

_________________
If the rule you followed lead you to this, of what use was the rule?

Bears lose 3-0?

_________________

Your logic is sound, here.
Doesn't speak to the fact, though, that we have a QB who can't read the field and a HC who refuses to run the football.
Bears lose in another low scoring snoozefest of bad football.

_________________

Fangio knows Mitch's limitations and will likely rely on his outstanding outside rushers to pressure him and fall back in coverage looking for picks. Nagy has shown no ability to adjust his offense to incorporate more running plays. He still thinks he can outsmart the league and if he doesn't figure it out quickly he will waste the best years of his quality defensive players. Mitch will either progress or play himself into a backup role with his production/lack of production this year. The light bulb may still come on for his this year, but early returns are not good. Watched the LSU QB run the RPO better in his first season in the system better than Mitch does in his second. There are plenty of college teams running the offense and you could use one of your second round picks to bring his replacement in pretty quickly. Punters may be the MVP's of this game.

It’s supposed to be 91° in Denver on Sunday. With the heat and altitude, combined with the 3 and outs, the defense will drop dead by half-time.

Doesn't everyone know Mitch's limitations?

Just blitz him a lot and leave everything on the opposite side of the field open enough for him to think it's ok to throw across his body

_________________
the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.

Sizzling hot take cockgobbler.

Pagano showed it’s the players not the scheme for this group. I’m worried about the game because Mitch appears to have taken several large steps backwards. I’m not worried because an old DC is meeting his old team.

_________________

Pagano knows Flacco’s short comings too, and he has an equally talented -if not more talented- defense with which to exploit those flaws.


And Flacco has a history of being very very mistake prone (Cutler esque) while Mitch does not. Mitch can be really boring, but he isn’t as likely to throw 3 or 4 picks in a game. Flacco on the other hand..


Vic also does not disguise much, he’s very ‘what you see is what you get’ so confusing Mitch in this game may not be an issue with Mitch being familiar with Fangio defenses. With Fangio, it’s all about being very patient, well disciplined, great tackling, and keeping everything in front of you.. which should leave dump off check down lanes open all day long.


And let’s mot forget how forgiving Vic’s defenses are on last second drives in close games..

_________________
If the rule you followed lead you to this, of what use was the rule?

I'm no fan of Flacco, but his stats are pretty similar to Mitch's. In fact their TD/Int ratio is virtually identical.

_________________
“Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.”- JD Vance
“My god, what an !diot.”- JD Vance tweet on Trump
“I’m a ‘Never Trump’ guy”- JD Vance

If we can get a Super Bowl MVP out of Trashbinsky I’ll be okay with that.

Flacco is very mistake prone and careless with the ball. You can’t compare Flacco turnover wise to many other QB’s not named Jay Cutler. In Flacco’s prime he had a season where he threw more INT’s than TD’s.


They’re also very different QB’s stylistically. Flacco is more of a tall tradition pocket passer who will take chances, Mitch is more of a game manager who will take off with th the ball too early and bail on a play.

_________________
If the rule you followed lead you to this, of what use was the rule?

I'm guessing Fangio wins this simply because he'll be smart enough to run the Goddamn football more than 15 times.

_________________

The Broncos have only lost at home 8 times during the first 2 weeks of the season in 49 years. This is going to be a really tough game for the Bears.

_________________
Be well

GO BEARS!!!

That is the real factor.

Somehow the Raiders were able to decode Fangio's genius.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

And do you know who has one of those victories?

It was week two in the 1984 season when a certain team, from a certain midwestern town, went into Mile High Stadium, rushed for over 300 yards, and shutout the Broncos 27-0 my friend.

_________________

My NFL model is favoring the Bears in this game with a 67% winning probability versus the -1 spread.

Apart from the number crunching, I think the Bears are due for a bounceback for personal reasons going against Fangio. The only thing I don't like about the matchup is that it's a Mile High, a tough place to play for opposing teams.

Your NFL model??

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

his NFL model is Morganna.

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

_________________

Take what Vic gives you.

Which is usually the short passing game that many QB's will not do for an entire game. Carr did it exceedingly well last night.

And Bryce Callahan was hurt.

_________________

supposed to be out 2-3 weeks

Buster Skrine FAR superior

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

The Raiders played with a really high level of intensity last night. The Broncos looked lethargic or uninspired by comparison. It will be interesting to see if the Raiders can bring that same furious energy in succeeding weeks. They'll be a pretty tough team to beat if they can.

_________________

I'd say it did pretty well in week 1. It had six winners out of its top seven selections. The circled teams were the winners against the spread, all sorted by winning probability from top to bottom. The two underlined teams were a push.



I posted these selections in the Week 1 NFL thread. It uses similar probabilistic concepts and math to horse racing and is explained here.

https://handicapwizard.com/nfl-predictions/

Broncos lost starting RT and have a new center. They will need to give tackles help with TE or keep back in to chip, limiting route tree. Nagy will likely do the same to stop Chubb and Miller which should make this a low scoring game if teams stay turnover free.