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 Post subject: Benson Precictions
PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:55 pm 
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He'll rush for 1600 yards. That's if he plays every game of course. But he'll average 100 yards per every game he starts. I guarentee it.

I'll give him 250 yards receiving.

He'll have a total of 16 touch downs - rushing and receiving combined.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:03 pm 
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It was interesting to see the Bears throw to Benson a few times on Saturday. As far as productivity, he's going to have a very nice season as long as he stays on the field. I'd go with about 1300 yards rushing and around 10 TD's, but that's probably more of a lower floor than a ceiling. I don't see Benson a 3 down back, more of a 1st and 2nd down back with Peterson/Wofe getting 3rd down duties, and Peterson also spelling Benson from time to time. If things really click with this offense, and their is lots of upside in that receiving corp with Olson/Bradley/Hester complimenting Muhammed and the still improving Berrrian, Benson could get the numbers that Beardown is predicting. Basically the more productivity the passing game shows, the less 8 man fronts Benson will see.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:18 pm 
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Granted, it was very limited work, but I saw a little of Benson which I liked and a little I didn't. The run where he plowed over the safety showed exactly what he could do in the middle of the field at the second level. However, on that cutback play he had a hole big enough to drive a Mack truck through, and yet he was brought down in space by a single defender. He needs to be more elusive when in the open like that.

Still, it was the first preseason game, so none of this really means anything.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:23 pm 
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Well, I saw him play enough last year to make this prediction. I'm not basing this on his 4 carries the other day.

Although, the extra 7 yards he got after lowering that shoulder was nice. Thomas Jones could never do that.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:30 pm 
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Beardown wrote:
Well, I saw him play enough last year to make this prediction. I'm not basing this on his 4 carries the other day.

Although, the extra 7 yards he got after lowering that shoulder was nice. Thomas Jones could never do that.


Yeah, I assumed your predition wasn't from Saturday. I'm not willing to correlate preseason success to season success just yet, at least as far as a handful of carries is concerned.

The big question is, can he stay healthy? If he does, he's a better back than Thomas Jones, no question about it.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:34 pm 
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I would be happy with a injury free season, 1400 yards, 8-10 td's.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:25 am 
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The talent's obviously there, so the biggest concern regarding Benson is his ability to stay on the field. I am concerned about that because he does play very physically.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:07 am 
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agreed BD. i really dont care if he plays all 16 games, but he's gotta play the majority of say...at least 14 games. 12-1300 yards in those 14 games is a very real expectation.

also, he's gotta protect the football too. he did tend to catch a case of the dropsies here and there during his first 2 years

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:51 am 
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I think 16 TD's may be a little high, but if he can stay healthy I do think 10-12 TD's is feasible.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:57 am 
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I dont see him outgaining what TJ did the past couple years. I think bears fans should be happy if he can get 1200 yds and 10 TDs. He has talent, but i think he went too high in the draft and I have not been particularly impressed by him so far in the NFL. I always thought TJ was a little underappreciated. Given how the Defense didnt play up to their potential in the playoffs, I thought TJ was as responsible as anyone for getting them to the SB

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:59 am 
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FavreFan86 wrote:
I dont see him outgaining what TJ did the past couple years. I think bears fans should be happy if he can get 1200 yds and 10 TDs. He has talent, but i think he went too high in the draft and I have not been particularly impressed by him so far in the NFL. I always thought TJ was a little underappreciated. Given how the Defense didnt play up to their potential in the playoffs, I thought TJ was as responsible as anyone for getting them to the SB


Remember, though, that Jones got his yardage with Benson there splitting carries to some extent. I don't see Peterson having the same level of carries as Benson did with Jones.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:04 am 
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BD wrote:
FavreFan86 wrote:
I dont see him outgaining what TJ did the past couple years. I think bears fans should be happy if he can get 1200 yds and 10 TDs. He has talent, but i think he went too high in the draft and I have not been particularly impressed by him so far in the NFL. I always thought TJ was a little underappreciated. Given how the Defense didnt play up to their potential in the playoffs, I thought TJ was as responsible as anyone for getting them to the SB


Remember, though, that Jones got his yardage with Benson there splitting carries to some extent. I don't see Peterson having the same level of carries as Benson did with Jones.


This is my main concern. The Bears really don't have a number two back. Peterson and Wolfe are both third down scatback types. If Benson gets hurt, the power running game is toast.
I have Benson down for 14 TDs and about 1300 yards.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:16 am 
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Peterson could never be an every down back, but as a backup i find him more than acceptable, and i am admittedlyt biased about wolfe, ( saw about 8 of his NIU games live) but i think he can develop into a very good change of pace back, i see him stayin in the league for at least 6-8 more years. That said however, i dont think he will contribute alot this year.

Bottom line is i think benson is in a situation to succeed with the offense around him, I just am not so sure he will, and if he doesnt i think it will make alot of people second guess trading away Jones.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:27 am 
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FavreFan86 wrote:
Peterson could never be an every down back, but as a backup i find him more than acceptable.


Nas went one further and said he would have no problem if Peterson becomes the main man due to a Benson injury. I disagree and I hope we don't have to find out. But if Benson goes out for the year in September, and Peterson has to become an every down back, would you still say Peterson is acceptable? This is the #1 fear of the season for me.

#2 fear is having two injury-prone safeties in Brown and Archuleta.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:33 am 
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Coast2Coast wrote:
FavreFan86 wrote:
Peterson could never be an every down back, but as a backup i find him more than acceptable.


Nas went one further and said he would have no problem if Peterson becomes the main man due to a Benson injury. I disagree and I hope we don't have to find out. But if Benson goes out for the year in September, and Peterson has to become an every down back, would you still say Peterson is acceptable? This is the #1 fear of the season for me.

#2 fear is having two injury-prone safeties in Brown and Archuleta.


as much uncertainty as i have about benson, more than anyone else on the offense, if he goes down the bears would really struggle i think. It may be possible wolfe/peterson could step up in that scenario, but I think the high end expectation for them in that case would be "average" at best. Overall I just disagreed with the TJ trade, and I understand the argument of Benson's contract and needing to play him since they payed him, but I think TJ is just overall better right now, and I think trading him away made the Bears take a definitive step back from a SB ring

But No, I would not find him acceptable as an every down back, but as a backup you could do worse (Verdand Morency). Not to mention he is one hell of a special teams player(I know that is irrelevant, but its worth mentioning)

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:35 am 
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Adrian Peterson is not an every down back. Garret Wolfe is not an every down back. They both are a valuable change up but Adrian Peterson will not scare any other defense. Cedric Benson will.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:39 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Adrian Peterson will not scare any other defense. Cedric Benson will.


I would be interested in hearing what team in the NFL's defense would be scared at this point of his career of Benson. There are like 4 or 5 RBs in the league right now you make a case for that would legitimately scare an NFL D.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:44 am 
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I'm with you guys on this, which is why I would have never traded TJ without having already signed a proven guy to take his place. RB is one of two positions on the field (QB is the other) in which I would be sure I have two quality guys who are good enough to be the main man. I would have taken the salary hit for two quality guys at RB and paid the price to fit under the cap by having lower-quality/lower salaries at other positions. Angelo has left the Bears exposed at one of the two key positions, just as he did two years ago at QB, when he had to go with Orton because they didn't have an experienced backup.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:45 am 
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LT,Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson the rookie, Shaun Alexander, Laurence Moroney, Edgerrin James(maybe) and a few others all have to be gameplaned for. By scare, I don't mean all pro, but players that the defense needs to highlight as an important player to stop. No one will gameplan for the Bears Adrian Peterson, but they will for all of those other players and also Cedric Benson.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:48 am 
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The talent's obviously there, so the biggest concern regarding Benson is his ability to stay on the field. I am concerned about that because he does play very physically.


He plays physically and seems to be a bit of a pussy and a headcase. Everytime he took a hit all I could think was get up! or please don't be injured. He's good but has not proven he's tough.

Another thing I became concerned about was our OL. Bears cannot afford injuries on the line, otherwise, Benson will have a tough time.

AP is not a starter.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:49 am 
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Peterson the rookie has incredible potential, but I doubt he scares anyone this year, and Edge James best years are behind him, I wouldnt put him in there. Maroney is also iffy on that list since he has yet to be the feature back, although i think he shows much potential and will be the year following this year, other than those 3 I would agree Rick, but I dont think Benson will be any more heavily game planned against than any other average to above average RB who is clearly the featured back on the team(meaning teams that dont employ RBBC)

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:53 am 
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The point is that Cedric Benson has the potential to dominate a game and opposing defenses will have to be sure that they keep him in check. I don't see our Adrian Peterson ever running for 150 in a game, but all of those other running backs could. I agree that teams won't be looking ahead four weeks to Cedric Benson but the defense that the Bears face will be tailored to try and stop him. The same will not be said of Adrian Peterson(or most backup running backs who become starters).

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:01 pm 
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I think you have this wrong boiler. I think the Bears system is what you would be gameplanning for and that they mainly are a running team. Just like when you play the Broncos you have to prepare for the running game no matter who is in the backfield. I think if Adrian was in the backfield the whole year instead of Benson you may be looking at 1100 yards for your starter instead of Benson with about 1300. I think its our offensive scheme that fits well with the RB's that we have and not Rb's that change things when called upon.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:39 pm 
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You may be right, but if Cedric Benson is only 200 yards over a season better then Adrian Peterson then the Bears wasted that 4th pick. I think Peterson is good, but he doesn't have the game changing ability of Benson. Benson may not have it, but in the first pre-season game he looked strong and tough to tackle. I think Peterson is an average NFL back, where Benson is good enough to be a top 10 NFL back.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:44 pm 
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After all the bullshit with Jerry Angelo telling me about Anthony Thomas and Thomas Jones not being "special" backs.... Cedric Benson can't run for only 1200 yards and 8-10 TDs. I don't think A-train or Jones were top tier backs, but we were only expecting/requiring second tier #s, and they delivered. Cedric Benson is supposed to be "special". Don't strain yourself trying to pat yourself on the back for this pick yet Jerry. I need to see 15 - 18 TDs to jump on the bandwagon.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:05 pm 
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I agrre with the thought that Benson has more game chaging ability than Peterson but I think Benson's style of running is going to do him more harm than good. With th shelf life of RB's in the NFL declining almost yearly I think he needs to try and add an elusiveness type of running style to his arsenal or his career will be shortened. The running everybody over style has to go. This is not college football anymore and he is going to get hurt running like this. Don't get me wrong I love that style but you have to use this only when necessary.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:13 pm 
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tmurf423 wrote:
I agrre with the thought that Benson has more game chaging ability than Peterson but I think Benson's style of running is going to do him more harm than good. With th shelf life of RB's in the NFL declining almost yearly I think he needs to try and add an elusiveness type of running style to his arsenal or his career will be shortened. The running everybody over style has to go. This is not college football anymore and he is going to get hurt running like this. Don't get me wrong I love that style but you have to use this only when necessary.


I don't know, I'd think that his style of delivering a hit pro actively would reduce his risk of injury compared to other runners who take big hits while trying to juke and be elusive. Barring injury I'm expecting a really big year for Benson along with some real good yards per carry from Peterson. Benson is a lot of fun to watch compared to Jones. I love seeing him run people over and think it will make a lot of defensive backs very tentative after the first couple of times he whacks their asses early in a game.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:18 pm 
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I have a feeling the aging line will hurt his numbers with an injury along the way.

1250 yds. 3.9 ypc 8 tds


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:24 pm 
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Yes him providing the blow instead of receiving is to his advantage a majority of the time but I am talking about the ones that could be avoided but he goes looking for. I think 8 td's would be a disappointing season for Benson. I think 11 or 12 would be about right and about 1200 yds.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:49 pm 
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I think some people underestimate how much 1200 yds means in a season. People are predicting shit like 1600 yds and 18 TDs for Benson, and that is just ridiculous. Thomas Jones was clearly a better runner last year and the year before(understandably Benson needed to adjust to the NFL) and he only got 1300 and 1200 yds, respectively. If Benson gets 1300 yds, you guys should consider that a very good season for his first year as a full time starter. WestmontMike saying he needs to see 18 TDs this year to be a believer is just plain idiotic, no offense. If LT isnt in the league, 18 TDs could easily lead the league.

Taper your expectations for Benson, It is reasonable to expect 1200 yds, it is forseeable he gets 900-1100, and if he reaches his #4 pick potential this year, he could possible make his way up to 1600 yds, but that is a ridiculous goal considering its his first year as a full time starter, remember there is a reason he couldnt take TJ's job last season

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