Me, about a month ago:
Quote:
As for the coordinator positions, I want someone with a pedigree of wide-open passing. If you have four #2 receivers on the team and a better-than-average TE in Olsen, then I want them all on the field at the same time, and I want the ball in the air.
St. Louis offensive rankings (football outsiders)
1998- 26
1999- 4 (M)
2000- 1 (M)
2001- 2 (M)
2002- 26 (M)
2003- 22 (M)
2004 19 (M)
2005- 21 (M)
2006- 14
Detroit offensive rankings
2005- 29
2006- 28 (M)
2007- 24 (M)
2008- 30
SF offensive rankings
2007- 32
2008- 27 (M)
2009- 23
I think the numbers are inconclusive in a number of respects. There haven't been any good offenses since the 2001 Rams. There certainly was improvement in Detroit and San Francisco, and he was starting from positions of minimal talent in both places. Football outsiders had Chicago as 28th last year on offense.
However, there's probably a lot more talent on the Bears offense right now than 2006-07 Detroit or 2008 San Francisco. By position (bold for best option/tandem):
QB:
Cutler, Kitna, Hill/O'Sullivan
RB: Forte, K. Jones,
GoreWR:
Hester/Aromashodu/Bennett/Knox, Furrey/R. Williams/Az-Hakim/Shaun McDonald/Calvin Johnson (rookie 2007), Bruce/Bryant Johnson/Hill/Battle (before I hear the complaints--the Issac Bruce he has was old, post-Rams Isaac Bruce, and Calvin Johnson was a rookie in 2007 with only ~40 catches. Calvin Johnson is of course great now, and Bruce used to be great, but those weren't the versions Martz got.)
TE: Vernon Davis:
Olsen, Campbell,
Davis (pre Vernon Davis "getting it"; Davis was the better option in 2009, but work ethic appeared to be an issue previous to 2009. That's not Martz's fault. I'll call that a tie).
His offensive lines have been universally terrible, but it was easy to see the makings of a workable line towards the end of the season, especially once Williams made the switch to left tackle.
A couple of things become clear. First, the offensive line complaint (his quarterbacks get killed) is probably a little overblown. Warner seemed to do all right, but Warner also had a HOF LT. Kitna and Hill did worse, but they are Kitna and Hill, and those offensive lines were abysmal. The Bears are somewhere in the middle at QB and probably a little better at the O-line, leading to... OK results, hopefully. I don't think that's the disaster it's made out to be.
Second, I don't think this is the death knell for the tight ends. I anticipate you'll simply see Olsen split into the slot more often, a la Dallas Clark.
Third, get ready to see a lot of crossing routes.
The pick isn't a home run. He didn't rehabilitate either the Detroit or San Francisco offenses, but they did improve, and there wasn't much to work with in either place. He was the architect of one of the most explosive offenses in history, but that was a lifetime ago in NFL terms, and he doesn't have four hall of famers on offense; don't expect miracles. But I would expect improvement; I think there would have been improvement over last year simply because of the youth of the offense last year, but Martz is an upgrade over Turner, especially given the talent distribution of the offense right now. Help is still needed on the interior of the line, but expect most of the attention to go to defense from here on out.