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Fan Graphs
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=75&t=107592		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  312player [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:48 am ]
Post subject:  Fan Graphs
Thiz is the reason I hate these new stats and the nerds who push them.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... oa-9j_pF7g
Author:  Terry's Peeps [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
:lol:

W-L and ERA are misleading, but these other stats tell a true story.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
Author:  Rod [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
He's easily better than Buehrle.
Author:  FavreFan [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Terry's Peeps wrote:
:lol:

W-L and ERA are misleading, but these other stats tell a true story.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

You're just one of those old dumb guys who can't see that a 4-11 record and 4.8 ERA is actually dominant.
Author:  312player [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.
Author:  badrogue17 [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
His granular batted ball data is just amazing .
Author:  Keyser Soze [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.
Author:  Rod [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.
Author:  badrogue17 [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Samardzija’s stuff, size, and athleticism are very real. He has taken the ball every fifth day since moving to the rotation in 2012. Sure, he might be just 63-83, 4.12, for his career, but this is not a mediocre starting pitcher.

:lol: :lol: :lol: Yeah he's just been unlucky for close to 150 career decisions . What a crock of shit . Fan Graphs should drink bleach.
Author:  Peoria Matt [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
What's the exit velocity against him?
Author:  Psycory [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Click bait, I'm not even bothering to read it. Sounds like they had the premise before hand and are trying to find stats to back it up.
Author:  donspiracy [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
The author has to be a Notre Dame fanboy.
Author:  Keyser Soze [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Peoria Matt wrote:
What's the exit velocity against him?

86.3 mph. League avg is 88.8
Author:  Rod [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
This is the way the game is viewed today. Through the eyes of a bunch of guys who believe that what they think should be is more important than what is. Next thing you know you're arguing authoritatively that the White Sox are better than the Twins.
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Peoria Matt wrote:
What's the exit velocity against him?
His exit velocity from Chicago was much too low. Both times.
Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.
Author:  312player [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.




Nobody would argue that a high K to BB rate is a bad thing, you just can't ignore all the hits, home runs and runs he gives up.. The guy sucks. He's also pitching in the biggest pitchers parks in mlb more often than most.
Author:  Peoria Matt [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Keyser Soze wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
What's the exit velocity against him?

86.3 mph. League avg is 88.8


I was trying to be a smart ass. I didn't think they would have that in there. Ay yi yi.
Author:  FavreFan [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

Yeah, it still amuses me that people regurgitate that line about strikeouts. It only takes a few seconds of thought to realize how dumb it is.
Author:  Keyser Soze [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Peoria Matt wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
What's the exit velocity against him?

86.3 mph. League avg is 88.8


I was trying to be a smart ass. I didn't think they would have that in there. Ay yi yi.

So was I. :D
Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
I'll give you all one guess as to which starting pitcher is 59th out of the 69 qualified starters this year in run support per start.

Next up, you'll get one guess as to which pitcher is just outside the top-10 in HR/FB among qualified starters.

In the Bonus Round, double points if you can guess the range (0-.1, .1-.2, .2-.3, etc.) of the coefficient of determination that RS/Start has had on the winning percentage of qualified pitchers this year. Here's the plot to give you a starting point:

Image
Author:  Rod [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.


It's not irrefutable. Do you really think that Buehrle got amazingly lucky in allowing the minimum three times with a minimal amount of strikeouts?
Author:  Apologist [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Joe Orr's War (WAR) against metrics continues.
Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.


It's not irrefutable.


No, it is irrefutable.

Quote:
Do you really think that Buehrle got amazingly lucky in allowing the minimum three times with a minimal amount of strikeouts?


Do you not?
Author:  Rod [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
I'll give you all one guess as to which starting pitcher is 59th out of the 69 qualified starters this year in run support per start.

Next up, you'll get one guess as to which pitcher is just outside the top-10 in HR/FB among qualified starters.

In the Bonus Round, double points if you can guess the range (0-.1, .1-.2, .2-.3, etc.) of the coefficient of determination that RS/Start has had on the winning percentage of qualified pitchers this year. Here's the plot to give you a starting point:

Image


Maybe it will all come together for him one year or maybe he is just cursed.
Author:  conns7901 [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Combining all of the balls he’s allowed to be put into play, his overall Adjusted Contact Score is almost exactly league average, at 99. League average, that is, despite a sky-high liner rate.

Maybe he has a sky-high liner rate because he sucks?
Author:  Rod [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.


It's not irrefutable.


No, it is irrefutable.

Quote:
Do you really think that Buehrle got amazingly lucky in allowing the minimum three times with a minimal amount of strikeouts?


Do you not?


Repeating that something is "irrefutable" doesn't make it true.

And of course I don't believe Buehrle had a lucky career or a miracle 81 out stretch wherein he retired every batter while striking out only 20 and getting "lucky" with the other 61 guys.
Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
I'll give you all one guess as to which starting pitcher is 59th out of the 69 qualified starters this year in run support per start.

Next up, you'll get one guess as to which pitcher is just outside the top-10 in HR/FB among qualified starters.

In the Bonus Round, double points if you can guess the range (0-.1, .1-.2, .2-.3, etc.) of the coefficient of determination that RS/Start has had on the winning percentage of qualified pitchers this year. Here's the plot to give you a starting point:

Image


Maybe it will all come together for him one year or maybe he is just cursed.


You realize his stellar 2014 turned into Addison Russell, right?
Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.


It's not irrefutable.


No, it is irrefutable.



Repeating that something is "irrefutable" doesn't make it true.



No, that thing being irrefutable makes it so.

Quote:
And of course I don't believe Buehrle had a lucky career or a miracle 81 out stretch wherein he retired every batter while striking out only 20 and getting "lucky" with the other 61 guys.


Do you honestly think a no-no doesn't require an incredible amount of luck?
Author:  Rod [ Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Fan Graphs
Do you honestly believe that a no-hitter doesn't require a tremendous amount of good pitching in the vast majority of cases. And I'm giving you an example of a guy who faced the minimum three times (the only guy) and he did it with relatively few strikeouts. What's more logical- that he got guys to hit the ball where he wanted or that he got incredibly lucky?
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