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Brock Lesnar has his first match in a WWE ring in more than eight years as the main event of the 4/29 Extreme Rules show in Chicago against John Cena.
The match seemed inevitable from the angle shot at the end of the 4/2 show. The date, which also seemed inevitable last week, raises a lot of questions. The big one is if WWE can market Lesnar as a consistent mover of business, something that nobody truly has been in the company since Batista’s brief run as a mover in 2005, which really only lasted through his program with HHH. Since then, they have brought back legends like The Rock, who made a difference short-term in almost every metric last year, and even if he didn’t move ratings much this year, likely helped the buy rate at Mania and ticket sales for the shows he appeared on over the last two months. They’ve created John Cena as the closest thing to a near mainstream face of the company since the days when wrestling was far more popular. And they’ve done things that have caught on briefly and led to a lot of talk, the C.M. Punk angle last summer being the most notable example.
But for better or worse, and you can argue both sides, WWE has created an entertainment business based far more on brand appeal than individual appeal, making them unique in that at the top level of combat individual sports and entertainment. Individuals do make a difference, in the sense they sell more merchandise and to a degree sell more tickets. The string of Raw sellouts both this year and last at the same time people thought Rock was appearing last year, and did weekly this year, shows the days of an individual selling tickets may not be over. But in this year’s sellout run, it was not just Rock, but Undertaker, Shawn Michaels and HHH in various combinations also being advertised on those shows. And with Punk, while in a sense it was disappointing the PPV numbers of the Chicago match with Cena, but they showed two things. Business was up significantly from what it would have been. But the hottest match of 2011, because it was booked on the wrong show, ended up finishing in 7th place out of 13 PPVs during the calender year.
The lesson of Cena vs. Punk, which if the same angle was done for SummerSlam, it likely would have made the company twice as much money, is the key thing here. And it’s not a new lesson.
The first time it was talked about was November 1, 2005, when Steve Austin was scheduled to return on a PPV in a match with Jonathan Coachman, where Jim Ross’ job as Raw announcer was at stake. The idea that after more than two years retired, that Austin would come back for a match with Coachman, and be booked to lose it (due to outside interference) seems mind-boggling in hindsight. Actually, it was equally as mind-boggling at the time. As it turned out, Austin pulled out, claiming he hurt his back moving furniture a few days before the show. But all of the advertising was out and everywhere regarding Austin’s return. The show bombed, doing what at the time was the lowest number for a PPV show in almost nine years.
Granted, that argument is similar to the results this year of The Rock’s first match in more than eight years, at Survivor Series. The Punk vs. Cena match saw 41,000 buys above the previous year’s show, although that was also comparing it to a unusually low base show figure from the year since Money in the Bank proved to be a weak concept to build a PPV around. Two years earlier, the same July show beat Punk vs. Cena by 62,000 buys. Unlike the Rock’s return, which featured a tag team match with the one guy nobody wanted to see him team with, against two heels that nobody saw on his level, built up with bad creative and no reason for the hated enemies to team, Punk vs. Cena came off as creative genius. It was some of the best build to a match WWE did in years. Granted, much of it was Punk’s delivery of his promos, and a unique storyline which could be learned from, but couldn’t be duplicated again for many years because it’s something that wouldn’t work the second time. If anything, the PPV numbers showed that when you have something special, if you don’t save it for a big show, you’re not getting anywhere near the value of it that you should.
Survivor Series is notable in the sense it is historically a big show, because after WrestleMania, that was the second annual PPV the company did, dating back to 1987. It was always considered one of the big four, but the reality is, that perception is based on nostalgia. In 2009, Survivor Series was No. 8 out of 13 shows. In 2010, it was No. 5, a little better. The point being, it’s only a “major” show to those who view “major” based on nostalgia. To the current fan base, the major shows are WrestleMania, Royal Rumble and SummerSlam. In 2011, because Rock was on it, it did move up to No. 4, but still didn’t do anywhere close to what Rock’s first wrestling match, no matter what the circumstances were, should have done. There is more on that in the WWE news section. All of these are lessons, one after the other, that if you’ve got an attraction that can move numbers, and you put it on anything but the big three shows, you aren’t getting anywhere close to the value for it that you should.
In both of those cases last year, there was emotion involved. Punk did his match in Chicago, his home town. Without question, being in Chicago made a huge difference in the match. You could argue it was worth doing it in Chicago instead of Los Angeles, giving up the PPV buys because long-term it brought Punk to a new level of stardom. But the company’s inability to keep Punk at the level he was that night kind of negates that.
For Rock, it was more about the fact Survivor Series was from Madison Square Garden. He watched his father and grandfather headline there, and with his grandfather dying when he was only 10, and him being something of his hero, that meant something. Then add to that, Madison Square Garden was where he had his first major WWF match, it was the building he was wrestling in when it first became obvious he was going to actually be a major force (a 1997 ladder match that he lost to HHH, where he was the heel but the MSG crowd went with him), and also the site of his last match (at WrestleMania XX in 2004). You can say he earned the right based on what he brought to the table at Mania earlier in the year. And again, from a WWE standpoint, they likely felt they could get the big boost from Rock’s match and Survivor Series was still a major show even if the past few years told you differently, and still not sacrifice Mania, since it was the match-up, Rock vs. Cena, that was the big draw and not just Rock being on the show.
Brock Lesnar has no such emotions. There is no tie to Chicago, WWE, childhood dreams of the crowd going crazy in MSG or in his home city. As noted last week, Lesnar is the first pure mercenary main eventer WWE has had. There is nothing wrong with it. He’s in for business. It’s a profession he can make a lot of money in for a short period of time. Historically, WWE is in it for business, while its wrestlers are in it for emotion, ego, business and dreams, all in varying degrees. In a sense, it’s the first main event business relationship with a relatively even emotional playing field.
It’s impossible to predict how the Lesnar experiment will work out in the long run. It’s a big money investment. It’s not C.M. Punk who if he sells some merchandise but doesn’t move PPV, TV or house show numbers, and becomes one of the two or three biggest stars among the full-time regulars, that he is a big success for the company and for himself. Here, with the limited dates, and bigger guarantee, Lesnar has to be a different kind of over. The kind of over that Rock was at WrestleMania this year and last, that Batista was at WrestleMania XI, the kind Steve Austin and The Rock were during the boom period from 1998 to 2001. Will he be? He’s got certain things going for him. He’s got a name that is huge. He’s got a certain physical charisma or being a badass, that his UFC losses don’t seem to have hurt (just like how many losses Chuck Liddell survived and could still draw) past a few people who still try to cling to the belief that run was a failure. But we don’t know.
What we do know is that for all the reaction Lesnar got for his “surprise” return, it meant nothing in the ratings. The 4/9 Raw did a 3.10 rating and the 4.29 million viewers was the lowest for a Raw episode since 2/13, before Rock returned. The bad thing of the rating was that one would have thought Lesnar giving Cena the F-5 to end the show the previous week would have created double curiosity, first, people curious about Lesnar, and others curious about where they were going for Lesnar. Ratings and drawing power are different animals and this doesn’t mean Lesnar won’t draw on PPV, but if in week one he meant nothing for ratings, that was a bad sign. The first quarter, which would be expected to be large even if there was any short-term curiosity, plus Lesnar was featured in the quarter in a big brawl with Cena, only did a 3.11. What this seems to indicate is whatever major fan base that drew ratings (Lesnar shows, with the exception of Ultimate Fighter, did far higher ratings than anyone else during his UFC run except for the Jackson vs. Evans Countdown numbers) and PPV for him in UFC was either people who were wrestling fans who already watched Raw, or wrestling fans who had lost interest in wrestling and didn’t care to see him on Raw. Normally one week ratings is nothing to make a fuss over, but that first quarter, and the overall show, had to be a huge disappointment on a lot of levels, doing the lowest rating in two months for a show that followed the highest rating of the year and was considered by many as the best episode of Raw of the year. It was also on a night with no sports competition whatsoever.
The best bet is that his first major match on PPV, and his WrestleMania match, are the two bouts that have the most potential. With Cena, they gave him the right opponent for a first blow out match. Putting it on Extreme Rules, it appears they put it on the wrong show. That is, unless they can do what Punk vs. Cena with a great build up and the right match on that day, Austin’s return on the wrong show with the wrong opponent, and Rock’s return on the wrong show with the wrong match, all couldn’t do.
The creative decision was made to bring Lesnar in as a hit man for John Laurinaitis. The WWE has never done the “outsider” character, even at times, such as with the NWO in 2002, Ric Flair in 1991, WCW in 2001, Nexus in 2010 and even Punk last year, where such a characteristic would seem to be screaming out for it. Ironically, it was that very characteristic in the eyes of the public, Lesnar as the UFC outsider coming from WWE, that made Lesnar into the biggest draw UFC ever had and elevated their entire business. If you were in the building for his two Frank Mir fights and the Randy Couture fight, it was his physical charisma, sure, but it was that he represented pro wrestling with a fan base that would tell their friends how UFC fighters were superior to pro wrestlers because they were real. Even today, there are likely MMA fans who still hate him for almost ruining their religious beliefs, and having to justify that everything they thought they knew about the world being flat or the Sun revolving around the Earth was really not true.
But I didn’t expect that. At the same time, nothing against David Otunga, but should Lesnar be in the ring this early in the game with Otunga in his bow tie in the same ring, or Laurinaitis? There is a lot that people who didn’t follow the business in 1991 don’t realize when in hindsight they say how WrestleMania in 1992 should have been Hogan vs. Flair and not Hogan vs. Sid Vicious. Hogan vs. Flair was very big in September, 1991, when they started on the road. It was not Hogan’s record setting feud as many expected, but Hogan was years past his true drawing power prime of 1984-87. It was his best numbers, at first, in a few years. For a number of reasons, Flair vs. Hogan had no staying power, and by January, it was dead. To the audience in early 1992, Hogan vs. Sid Vicious was considerably bigger by that time. It wasn’t bigger than Hogan vs. Flair in September, but it was a lot bigger than Hogan vs. Flair two months later. What was the reason?
Well, there were many. But the moment I knew the program had been hurt was in the build to the 1991 Survivor Series, when Flair would stand there and do promos with Ted DiBiase, The Warlord and The Mountie with a cartoon design in the background. What led to Hogan vs. Flair doing big numbers in Oakland with a few promos, some great newspaper ads and no angles on television, were that it was something you weren’t supposed to ever see. World’s colliding that were supposed to be separate. Steve Austin vs. Bill Goldberg in 1998 that never happened. The first WCW vs. WWF Invasion PPV that is still the single most successful pro wrestling event that wasn’t a WrestleMania. The Sheik vs. The Bruiser in Detroit after their promotional war. The Baba vs. Inoki singles match that never happened in the 70s or the 80s or the Nobuhiko Takada vs. Keiji Muto and Shinya Hashimoto matches that did. In another era, Lesnar vs. Cena, even more than Rock vs. Cena, would be that match. But when Flair stood next to The Mountie in his garb and was cutting a promo, Hogan vs. Flair lost the edge.
But does that mean it was a bad move linking Lesnar with Laurinaitis. It’s not as emphatic a no as some would think. It’s called playing the percentages. Lesnar isn’t Flair. He’s as far away from it as you could be. Nobody knows what Lesnar will do in the long-run, including most likely Lesnar. He may like an easy schedule and big money, and draw like crazy, and stay for years. He may do 100,000 buys on his third or fourth PPV in because it’s just what happens in today’s PPV environment of going monthly. He may have a run in between, and after a year, both sides fulfilled their end and the relationship ends, although that one is rarely how wrestling relationships end.
Or, because they present his character in a way that he’s just a guy on a television show as opposed to something different from anyone else. At that point, then WWE will question if he’s worth it and who knows where that tension goes. There are so many things that can go right, and wrong here. If the big storyline heat is on Laurinaitis as the heel authority figure, and Lesnar is just his paid assassin, Lesnar can leave at any time and the key storyline keeps going. The upside isn’t nearly as big, but you also don’t get caught in a lurch if he gets hurt or decides to go home.
Lesnar’s second week of television on 4/9 in Washington, DC opened with Laurinaitis introducing him as the man to bring legitimacy back to WWE. Lesnar got about a sentence out, before Cena, with an ear-to-ear grin, came out. He slapped Lesnar in the face, Lesnar double legged him and did some ground and pound, including a punch that may have caused Cena to bite his lip or fattened his lip. It was a great visual of Cena, blood coming out of his mouth, with a big pull-apart, which included even the higher-end level competitors joining in. The usual rule of thumb in wrestler pull-aparts is the real stars aren’t to be trivialized by being pull apart guys. And it’s a good rule, And this was the perfect time to violate the rule.
The company’s original doctrine of not mentioning UFC was changed, and it was for the better. It felt forced and fake to have Lesnar on TV, and skirt around the UFC mentions, particularly his being heavyweight champion. He did an interview, acknowledging his leaving, going to UFC, bringing that company to new levels, and then Laurinaitis bringing him back. It would have been better if he had a reason he wanted to come back, even hinting at something (which could be his Mania tease) that would play into the future. But he doesn’t have to do that week one. His interview late in the show didn’t compromise the character, which is probably the most important aspect if it is possible this can be a real difference maker. It is very possible that even doing everything perfectly, that it’s pro wrestling in 2012 and that emotion won’t work as far as money (it will work as far as to the people who are there, as Lesnar’s appearances, reactions, and even the reaction to his saying UFC all showed, but the money is in broadening that audience, not servicing the audience already there).
The show ended with Cena beating Otunga with the STF in a quick and not particularly good match. Lesnar came from behind and gave Cena a low blow, before hitting the F-5. That was brilliant in a subtle way. Everyone believes Lesnar is legit and they know he’s tough. When the guy you know is tough resorts to a low blow from behind, it’s a lot more heat than just the typical heel de jour doing the move. That was a lesson of how much heat Don Frye in New Japan would get for simply not breaking on the ropes. That was something every heel wrestler does, but when you had Frye, who came to New Japan right after winning the Ultimate Ultimate tournament, a legit guy, who was cheating and doing the very subtle heel facials, it got more heat than anyone else in the same situation.
At the end of the day, it’s still another show built at portraying Lesnar as a heel by affiliating him with the evil boss, and Cena as the face. The biggest money would be Cena representing WWE, and even the heel boss being on his side against the unstoppable and scary force who isn’t supposed to be there and that nobody is confident in anyone to stop. But for reasons already given, that wasn’t going to be the portrayal.
But, in Chicago, Lesnar is still likely to be the one cheered like crazy and Cena booed out of the building, unless you have a match involving lots of shenanigans from Laurinaitis. But if you have that match storyline, you’re risking killing off the emotion that is supposed to be the key in Lesnar drawing money in the first place.
The most notable thing is, and it shouldn’t happen for a number of months, because you really need to get the mileage out of the potential money opponents, but long-term, Lesnar is a babyface. Quite frankly, if he wanted to live the life, and he doesn’t, he’s the babyface that they’ve been missing for years. The same thing he was going to end up as in UFC if he could have continued to win at the high level, just as Wanderlei Silva and Mirko Cro Cop ended up being in Japan. The beauty of WWE is that when you have that guy, he can be there for years, and you can protect him and you aren’t limited by reality in what stories you can tell. The bad is that with a unique character, the lack of understanding of the character and what things in storyline need to be avoided, often those hampered by reality are actually blessed by it. Ultimately, in a year or two, that comparison will be able to be made at the highest level.
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_________________ Drop In wrote: I'm picturing a 12 year old Bob Loblaw bitching out a Randy Savage Wrestling Buddy for botching his finisher. Also envisioning Bob Loblaw getting bitched at for lighting the living room table on fire for said finisher.
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wtf. He wanted Brock to clinch with Cena and push him into a corner a punch him to death instead of a "phony - baloney" F-5? Cena and Rock didn't touch for a year, this was the only way to do it. Then he says Brock is fat. Have you ever seen Bruce Mitchell? Then we're informed that Vince drops non wwf guys down a notch or two. Thanks Bruce, I figured that out when Harley came to the wwf in 1986, so again, what's his point? Then criticizes announcing again for not mentioning UFC (in a 30 second spot). Is this TNA where you mention WWE's HOF every week? I'm sure they'll talk about where's he's been at some point, just not in his first 30 second spot. Brock is by far the largest grossing ppv draw of his time, probably not a bad idea to bring him in. Also when mma fans who don't watch wrestling are now watching just to troll Brock is probably one of the funniest things I can think of. Its a double reverse trolling by Brock. They hated him when he did one of the greatest things to ever happen to mma because he was a rookie with no experience getting by on raw ability. Most of the smart fans knew that his lack of skill and experience would catch up with him quickly and it did. He conquered the WWF, was a UFC champion which people try to take away, even though he cleanly smashed people, made a fortune in both sports and does whatever he wants. Sounds good to me. Also if Brock is old, fat and slow - I'd love to be old, fat and slow. 
