I have MANY years of experience in trying to appreciate steaming piles of dogshit.

It is but..............what happens to an Andy Reid team EVERY SINGLE YEAR? They always get out of the gate red hot and piss it all aways by week 17.

I have MANY years of experience in trying to appreciate steaming piles of dogshit.

Oh no doubt. Fans around here are very concerned about this, and about the defense.

I'm all about being aggressive and whatnot but what Vrabel did was stupid. Kick the XP and go to OT.

While the conversation surrounding the play was about unquantifiable measures of aggressiveness and momentum, the reality is that underdogs should strive to reduce the game to as few plays as possible. The Titans were 6.5-point underdogs heading into the game, and while they had played the Chargers close enough to force overtime with a successful extra point, we also know that favorites in this situation win in overtime 56 percent of the time. If you're the favorite, you want to extend the game so you have as many chances as possible to exert your advantage. If you're the underdog, you want to try to sneak one past a favorite as quickly as possible. You would have a better shot of beating Steph Curry in one-on-one to one than playing the Warriors star to 11.

The fact that he needs to use an NBA analogy says all that needs to be said. I'm glad Vrabel lost and it was definitely the wrong decision.

I disagree. I think Bill Barnwell's logic in defending the decision is sound

The Titans were the better team in the second half and the Chargers were without their best player. The game was also in London, which makes everything even more random. If Vrabel's thought process really was "favorites win in OT 56% of the time I must go for 2" then fuck him. Nagy-esque stupidity.

That seems like a highly superficial analysis of the favorite's advantage.

I also doubt the scope of the analysis was limited to the most recent changes in OT rules

If you can't get a yard in that situation then OT probably won't be any more kind to you.

Kickers all collectively losing their talent this year is another pretty big factor in the go for it decision. If even Justin Tucker can't be relied upon as a guarantee than that needs to factor in as well.

In general, the better coaches are the more aggressive ones. Vrabel's decision is pretty defendable.

There's nothing superficial about the principle behind it. If you're an underdog you want to reduce the game to the fewest number of plays/possessions as possible. Even if you think that 6.5 number is irrelevant at that point in the game, you're gonna be hard pressed to find somebody who thinks the Titans are better than the Chargers, or even on the same level.

Fellas, we only had a 44% chance of winning in OT and I just didn't think you guys are good enough to overcome those odds.

Analytics have run amock.

Of course it is superficial and so is your stated principle behind it: for instance, a team with a superior offense who happens to be a dog is actually looking to increase the number of total possessions in the game

I don't agree with that but even if that's true it's the opposite of the case at hand here. Chargers offense has been significantly better than the Titans all year.

But not in the 2nd half of that game. And the Chargers offense was without its best player.

I don't agree with that but even if that's true it's the opposite of the case at hand here. Chargers offense has been significantly better than the Titans all year.

Phillip Rivers was playing.

Well you should agree because that is actually mathematically provable.

but in regards to the case at hand, I think you would have to take several stats into consideration if you are going to accurately represent whether the coach made a correct decision, including things like % of kicked XP made v. conversions. It may turn out that two point conversions convert at a lower rate than 44%, which actually means you take your chances in OT. I don't know that though and neither does Barnwell.

It's not mathematically provable unless you take into consideration a host of other factors, many of which would probably help explain why the superior offensive team is an underdog to begin with.

Your 2nd part confuses me. Are you under the impression data isn't available for 2 point conversion attempts?

For a first round pick?!?! omg

Suddenly its Gruden the Genius.