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Passing Yards are Misleading https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=129329 |
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Author: | veganfan21 [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:47 am ] |
Post subject: | Passing Yards are Misleading |
Brady last night: 350 yards passed Conventional Wisdom: Wow, that's super productive! Reality: No Brady racked up 250 yards once the score hit 24-0. In other words, 71% of his passing yards came when the game was already decided. Those are some meaningless stats that when looked at uncritically will lead folks to believe he had a "good" game. Have to go deeper than "passing yards" when judging performance |
Author: | Brick [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:52 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
By the same logic all stats are misleading. He had 2 touchdowns and 1 interception which also isn't terrible most of the time but the two touchdowns also came after they were down 24-0. |
Author: | badrogue17 [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:07 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
QB rushing yards, now THATS where its at. |
Author: | Rod [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:11 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
badrogue17 wrote: QB rushing yards, now THATS where its at. Should have used a Justin Fields mult for this. |
Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:29 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
badrogue17 wrote: QB rushing yards, now THATS where its at. viewtopic.php?f=47&t=129320#p3887787
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Author: | veganfan21 [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:52 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
Brick wrote: By the same logic all stats are misleading. He had 2 touchdowns and 1 interception which also isn't terrible most of the time but the two touchdowns also came after they were down 24-0. Not necessarily - it's about weighing stats based on situational context. I think QBR takes most of that into account: Quote: Traditional NFL stats often act like funhouse mirrors –- making a quarterback’s performance look like something it isn’t. For example, take a look at these stat lines from the 2015 NFC wild-card game between the Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins: Aaron Rodgers: 21 of 36 passing, 210 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 93.5 passer rating. Kirk Cousins: 29 of 46, 329 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 91.7 passer rating. If you asked 100 random people in a “Pepsi-Coke”-type challenge which quarterback had the better game based on these stats, chances are Cousins would win in a landslide. But any objective observer who watched this game would acknowledge that Rodgers was the better quarterback in Green Bay’s 35-18 win. Traditional box score stats distort the performances of Rodgers and Cousins in this game because they (1) fail to account for all of the ways a quarterback can affect a game, (2) don’t put plays into the proper context (a 5-yard gain on second-and-5 is very different from a 5-yard gain on third-and-10), and 3) don’t acknowledge that a quarterback has teammates who affect each play and should also get credit for everything that happens on the field. https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/pos ... ack-rating Brady's QBR last night was a lowly 24.1 - that's a better reflection of his subpar play than just letting the passing yards wow you. |
Author: | veganfan21 [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:58 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
On Fields, it's interesting when you break the QBR down - it clearly indicates Fields is one of the worst in the league when it comes to EPA on pass plays but he leads the league in EPA in run plays for QBs. Added together, including sacks, penalties, etc., he's ranked 17/31 for QBR, but the true driver of that ranking is his running. If he became less mobile and everything else remained the same he'd be perhaps by far the worst QB in the league. https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/seasonty ... s/dir/desc |
Author: | Brick [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:02 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
veganfan21 wrote: Brick wrote: By the same logic all stats are misleading. He had 2 touchdowns and 1 interception which also isn't terrible most of the time but the two touchdowns also came after they were down 24-0. Not necessarily - it's about weighing stats based on situational context. I think QBR takes most of that into account: Quote: Traditional NFL stats often act like funhouse mirrors –- making a quarterback’s performance look like something it isn’t. For example, take a look at these stat lines from the 2015 NFC wild-card game between the Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins: Aaron Rodgers: 21 of 36 passing, 210 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 93.5 passer rating. Kirk Cousins: 29 of 46, 329 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 91.7 passer rating. If you asked 100 random people in a “Pepsi-Coke”-type challenge which quarterback had the better game based on these stats, chances are Cousins would win in a landslide. But any objective observer who watched this game would acknowledge that Rodgers was the better quarterback in Green Bay’s 35-18 win. Traditional box score stats distort the performances of Rodgers and Cousins in this game because they (1) fail to account for all of the ways a quarterback can affect a game, (2) don’t put plays into the proper context (a 5-yard gain on second-and-5 is very different from a 5-yard gain on third-and-10), and 3) don’t acknowledge that a quarterback has teammates who affect each play and should also get credit for everything that happens on the field. https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/pos ... ack-rating Brady's QBR last night was a lowly 24.1 - that's a better reflection of his subpar play than just letting the passing yards wow you. QBR is basically just someone watching every snap and saying "Good play and the game was close" though so of course it's going to work very well in a blowout and minor comeback. |
Author: | veganfan21 [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:09 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
That's a bit of an oversimplification but I also don't know your position on stats in general. My position is traditional stats like Passer Rating, Yards, etc., are meaningless without context. I do care about an end zone INT, for example, more than a hail mary INT with 1 second left before halftime. The QB should basically not be penalized for the latter. The more game context is taken into account the better imo. Fields is interesting in this regard: when you get deeper QBR treats him very, very fairly: exceptional EPA on runs, horrific EPA on pass. Middle-range overall. It's a more holistic conversation than just reading the surface level conventional stats. |
Author: | Brick [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:14 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
veganfan21 wrote: That's a bit of an oversimplification but I also don't know your position on stats in general. QBR is exactly what I described though so it's going to work best in blowouts where the player who is losing puts up stats while down by a lot. My guess is that with QBR he got almost no credit for either of those touchdowns.Small sample sizes can lie but passing yards, just like any stat, can be valuable in context with other stats. Brady's completion percentage was bad and his team also got blown out. veganfan21 wrote: My position is traditional stats like Passer Rating, Yards, etc., are meaningless without context. I do care about an end zone INT, for example, more than a hail mary INT with 1 second left at the end of the half. The QB should basically not be penalized for the latter. The more game context is taken into account the better imo. Fields is interesting in this regard: when you get deeper QBR treats him very, very fairly: exceptional EPA on runs, horrific EPA on pass. It's a more holistic conversation than just reading the surface level conventional stats. For a game they can lie. For a season they often don't even passing yards. It's not like over a 16 or 17 game season that a player throws for a ton of garbage yards at a rate higher than most other quarterbacks. I'll take the guy who throws for 4,500 in a season over the guy who throws for 3,000 in a season in a similar amount of games and most of the time I'll be right.
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Author: | vitoscotti [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:06 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
Is saying 350 yards passing with a 72 rtg is a bad performance that earth shattering? |
Author: | veganfan21 [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:31 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
Brick wrote: veganfan21 wrote: That's a bit of an oversimplification but I also don't know your position on stats in general. QBR is exactly what I described though so it's going to work best in blowouts where the player who is losing puts up stats while down by a lot. My guess is that with QBR he got almost no credit for either of those touchdowns.Small sample sizes can lie but passing yards, just like any stat, can be valuable in context with other stats. Brady's completion percentage was bad and his team also got blown out. veganfan21 wrote: My position is traditional stats like Passer Rating, Yards, etc., are meaningless without context. I do care about an end zone INT, for example, more than a hail mary INT with 1 second left at the end of the half. The QB should basically not be penalized for the latter. The more game context is taken into account the better imo. Fields is interesting in this regard: when you get deeper QBR treats him very, very fairly: exceptional EPA on runs, horrific EPA on pass. It's a more holistic conversation than just reading the surface level conventional stats. For a game they can lie. For a season they often don't even passing yards. It's not like over a 16 or 17 game season that a player throws for a ton of garbage yards at a rate higher than most other quarterbacks. I'll take the guy who throws for 4,500 in a season over the guy who throws for 3,000 in a season in a similar amount of games and most of the time I'll be right.I agree on sample size mattering but season stats I think are a different question. I also think your 4,500 vs 3,000 example still glosses over QBs who have less passing yards because they also gain ground yards. Josh Allen and Hurts are examples here. QBR will capture the air and ground value both add while passsing yards won't. Allen for example ranks 7th in pass yards behind Goff and is effectively tied with Geno Smith. However, if you add his 760+ rush yards, he vaults to second overall in total yards for a QB. This aligns with his QBR ranking - second overall - which is a better indicator of his QB performance than taking a look at his 7th ranking in passing yards. |
Author: | Brick [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:44 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
veganfan21 wrote: I agree on sample size mattering but season stats I think are a different question. I also think your 4,500 vs 3,000 example still glosses over QBs who have less passing yards because they also gain ground yards. Josh Allen and Hurts are examples here. QBR will capture the air and ground value both add while passsing yards won't. Allen for example ranks 7th in pass yards behind Goff and is effectively tied with Geno Smith. However, if you add his 760+ rush yards, he vaults to second overall in total yards for a QB. This aligns with his QBR ranking - second overall - which is a better indicator of his QB performance than taking a look at his 7th ranking in passing yards. Allen and Smith were almost exactly the same though Smith played in one extra game so I think it makes sense that Allen's running ability also factors in.If it was a difference of 1,500 yards though I think it would be justifiable to say that Smith was better. |
Author: | veganfan21 [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:58 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
Smith would be better than Allen in 2022 due to hypothetically more passing yards? |
Author: | Brick [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:01 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
veganfan21 wrote: Smith would be better than Allen in 2022 due to hypothetically more passing yards? The reason that running yards comes into play when discussing Smith and Allen is that they have very similar passing stats this year though Allen did it in one less game.
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Author: | veganfan21 [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:12 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
I still don't understand though. I don't know why passing yards count more than rushing yards when simply judging performance. The only conventional stat is close is yards passed - Allen gained more overall yards and also scored more TDs overall. I'm not saying Smith sucked - he's a top 8 QB per QBR, but I don't think saying their production is similar just because of passing yards is a strong argument. That's again just reducing the whole performance analysis to yards passed which doesn't work. |
Author: | Brick [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:18 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
veganfan21 wrote: I still don't understand though. I don't know why passing yards count more than rushing yards when simply judging performance. The only conventional stat is close is yards passed - Allen gained more overall yards and also scored more TDs overall. I'm not saying Smith sucked - he's a top 8 QB per QBR, but I don't think saying their production is similar just because of passing yards is a strong argument. That's again just reducing the whole performance analysis to yards passed which doesn't work. Well, I'd say passing yards matter more than rushing yards for quarterbacks. When they are virtually tied with passing yards then you can look at rushing yards. Obviously someone like Fields or Jackson is a little different but it still matters. There production isn't similar because he ran for more yards but it's close because they passed for the same amount if we ignore the one game difference. |
Author: | billypootons [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:26 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
one glance at the 60+ attempts and the yardage becomes unimpressive |
Author: | Nas [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:46 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
billypootons wrote: one glance at the 60+ attempts and the yardage becomes unimpressive I'm impressed that a 70 year old quarterback was able to throw the ball 60 times because the Buccaneers didn't have a running game. Is Mike Evans and Todd Bowles aware the game ended? |
Author: | 312player [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:41 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
Nas wrote: billypootons wrote: one glance at the 60+ attempts and the yardage becomes unimpressive I'm impressed that a 70 year old quarterback was able to throw the ball 60 times because the Buccaneers didn't have a running game. Is Mike Evans and Todd Bowles aware the game ended? Brady has used his quick hitters to backs and slot receivers as a run game for years..it's only a problem now because he's jumpy in the pocket and m8ssing Godwin,Evans and Jones. |
Author: | Nas [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 8:16 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
312player wrote: Nas wrote: billypootons wrote: one glance at the 60+ attempts and the yardage becomes unimpressive I'm impressed that a 70 year old quarterback was able to throw the ball 60 times because the Buccaneers didn't have a running game. Is Mike Evans and Todd Bowles aware the game ended? Brady has used his quick hitters to backs and slot receivers as a run game for years..it's only a problem now because he's jumpy in the pocket and m8ssing Godwin,Evans and Jones. Brady missed Gronk. Whenever there was an issue, he knew Gronk would be on the same page as him. He and Mike Evans couldn't get on the same page all year. Yesterday, Brady wanted Evans to run an out, but Evans ran a curl. During a scramble drill, Brady threw the ball where Evans should have been, but Evans was on another planet. That last go ball was perfect, but Evans didn't start running until the last second. Brady was having similar issues when he first got to Tampa, but Gronk came and things turned around almost immediately. |
Author: | Hawg Ass [ Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:39 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
Interesting, 4 of the Top 5 passing leaders from this past weekend won their games. |
Author: | ChatGPT [ Fri Jan 20, 2023 10:25 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
Passing yards can be a useful metric for measuring a quarterback's performance and success, but it is not the only metric to consider. Other factors such as completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and passer rating can also provide valuable insight into a quarterback's abilities. Additionally, the team's overall record and success in the playoffs should also be taken into account when evaluating a quarterback's performance and success. |
Author: | Clawmaster [ Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:51 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Passing Yards are Misleading |
The top guys do things that are not really measurable, like checking into the right run play or sliding protection at the last second, the success/failure of each play depends on the QB being able to process the look he's getting and then instantly getting the ball to the guy with the best chance of success, a one or two second process that maybe only 6 or 8 guys can do consistently. Very interesting to watch today's NFL where no lead is safe for some teams because they either refuse to run the ball or the QB constantly checks to passes, Tampa rarely even attempted to run the ball under Brady. It also seemed the league grew tired of pampering and protecting guys like Brady and Rodgers by calling the phantom illegal contact or PI's late in games to bail them out. |
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