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The end of the NFL
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Author:  Brick [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:32 am ]
Post subject:  The end of the NFL

WILL. NOT. HAPPEN.

This is a continuation of another thread so we can get that one back to the discussion of whether Raleigh, Boise, Vegas, or Los Alamos is where the new owners of the White Sox will be.

It is going to change but it isn't going away. Tackling for youth leagues will rightfully disappear. No reason for it. High school football will either just be tackle at the varsity level or may even go the club route like hockey is at a lot of places. Still, no tackling for anyone younger than 16. This won't have much of an effect. The strategy and skills required are still being learned. Weight training will continue to prepare them. Less injuries will happen which actually could have a positive effect.

Then, the money starts to show up. Especially if college players start getting modest salaries, there will be people lining up to play. They'll learn to tackle just fine. We could potential even see the return of JV teams in college as a way to prepare the younger players.

Then the NFL offers it's millions and people line up to play just like they do now for a better life for the families. The quality of play will have very little noticeable decline.

Author:  Brick [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

veganfan21 wrote:
How does that mitigate CTE concerns though? I got to think I'll take the risks of torn ACLs, broken ankles, and 90mph projectiles over CTE and paralysis when it comes to sports.
You don't have to mitigate all CTE concerns. It's a risk/reward scenario. We still have coal miners even though that is a dangerous job. If you see a solid path for making money you will have people willing to risk their health to partake.

By starting it later in life though, you obviously somewhat lessen the chance of CTE.

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Has any sport ever had to adapt like this? Cant think of any.



I think there will be a very noticeable change in quality or rules at the NFL level eventually


I think removing tackling from under 16 group will have an effect

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Mark Cuban is a smart guy. He's obviously biased but here is somehting he wrote earlier this year about the NFL in general (not just CTE)




Mark Cuban
March 24 · Edited ·
So Lets Talk NFL Football. Since my comments about the NFL imploding in TEN YEARS seem to have caught everyone's attention.

First of all, why comment on the NFL ? Because I pay attention to all of the entertainment industry. I can learn from what happens in the industries I follow and when I comment on something, it invariably generates feedback. A lot of it. All of which I learn from. So expect me to comment on this and much for many years to come.

So why do I think the NFL will implode in 10 years ?
1. I wouldn't want my son playing football, would you ? I'm sure helmet technology will improve over the next 10 years, but why risk it ? There are plenty of sports to play. Plenty of ways to get exercise and if my son decided to do anything outside of sports and never pick up any ball of any kind, I'm fine with that. I can think of 1k things I would prefer him to get excited about doing.
As far as watching, I good with that.
I don't think I'm alone. If we start to see a decline of popularity at the high school and then college level because kids choose other sports, it will hurt the interest in watching the NFL

2. Player Behavior. The NBA learned this lesson. Fans don't like to see players acting the fool. While fans may forgive players over time, advertisers have long memories.
It is hard to ask players to be warriors on the field and perfect citizens off. Across a population of more than 1500 players under the age of 30, you can bet that they will have continuing issues. With the unquenchable thirst the online and media world have for HEADLINE PORN, and the ever growing availability of pictures of those mistakes appearing online, it is not inconceivable that over the next ten years something could impact the perception of the game enough to impact attendance and viewership.

3. Their TV strategy today is perfect. Nothing wrong with expanding their Thursday night broadcasts. It is a great idea.
That said, if they continue this trend of adding games on more nights ( i have been told they are looking at Saturday Nights as well) and this was the point I was making to ESPN yesterday, they risk over-saturation, a decline in interest by current, and non NFL fans feeling imposed upon because of the relative popularity of the NFL.
Some have asked, "if you can supply programming that has such huge demand on more nights , why wouldn't you ? " The answer is simple. No one wants to do the same thing every night. No matter what it is.
Sunday audiences for the NFL are big. Huge. Monday night audiences are smaller than Sunday. And Thursday are smaller than Monday. Sundays get 21.Xmm viewers on NBC/Fox, 18mm on CBS. Monday Nights get 13.7mm viewers and Thursdays get 7.1mm viewers. No question that Thursday night viewership will be much higher on CBS. Which is good for the NFL. But as you can see, there is not the same level of interest in the NFL carrying over from Sunday night to other nights of the week.
Can the NFL add more nights ? Sure they can. Will they draw more viewers than most TV shows can on the nights they add ? Sure they will. But is there a point of diminishing returns ? No question about it.
As I said, Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered (don't know who said this originally).
How many days of NFL football are too many ? I think they get one more night. Probably a Saturday. Simply because Saturday is a waste land on TV right now. So an NFL game on the NFL Network or broadcast TV would probably work relative to other options available to TV Networks or the NFL Network. After that, they go backwards.
After that the backlash starts. Will they take away from High School Football on Fridays ? What would the general consensus be if NFL football dominated the ratings Thursday through Monday with only Tues and Wed as days off ?
What will the law of unintended consequences be when the NFL is on 5 days a week. Will we see a "Who Wants to be A Millionaire " affect ?
Only time will tell. But while over playing their TV hand is a risk for the NFL, they are smart and may not even take that direction. My comments to ESPN were based on speculation in the event they do. We will see.

4. Fantasy Football. TV saturation is not the NFL's biggest risk. What is their biggest risk ? Fantasy Football. Yep Fantasy Football.
When I broached the topic of the NFL being too aggressive and possibly devolving from "piggy territory" to "Hoggy Territory", the recurring response was that Fantasy Football is the difference. That Fantasy Football drives interest in the NFL.
Is that true ? What does everyone out there think ?
How much is the NFL worth in aggregate ? At least an average of $1 billion dollars per team ? And with the whole probably being worth more than the sum of the parts, the NFL if it was a public entity with all the teams in a single holding company, traded on the stock market, would be worth what ? Half of Facebook ? 3X+ Twitter or about $100 billion dollars ?
Could a $100 billion dollar venture really be dependent on how many people sign up for leagues to get points for plays and bragging rights with their friends ? If the answer is yes, that is a problem for the NFL and to a lesser extent all pro sports.
Does anyone believe that in 10 years Facebook will be the dominant social network ? It might be. What about Twitter ? Will it be a player ? Will Google dominate ? How will they dominate ?
We all know from history that very few tech based businesses live on as they currently are forever. And 10 years is forever. And Fantasy Football at its base is a tech based form of entertainment.
I'm not saying there haven't been quite a few online entertainment franchises that have been able to thrive over 10 plus years. There are more than a few.
What I do know is that every kid and their brother is looking for ways to create games or new forms of entertainment that pull people's attention away from fantasy football.
Do you bet on the NFL and Fantasy Football or do you bet on the entrepreneurial field ?
Could there possibly be a new technology or new form of entertainment that impacts the popularity of fantasy sports and has a big impact on not just the NFL, but all pro sports at some point in the next 10 years ?
I bet yes.

5. The risk of TV changing. TV is changing. Not near as much as people think. TV subscriptions started climbing again this past quarter as Cable and Satellite distributors greatly improved their user interfaces , VOD, internet streaming and discovery. But could it change ? Yes it could. Could we see more streaming and less traditional delivery ? Maybe. Will that have an impact on the NFL which is one of the few programs that has so many viewers of a live program that they could be seriously and negatively impacted if streaming became the expectation for sports and tv programming ? Yes. If the NFL needed to stream its games over the public internet in a net neutrality world, thats a problem for the NFL.
And if mobile consumption of the internet became dominant it could be even a bigger problem. Not just because of the technical nature of streaming mobile, but because i think there is a smaller audience of people who would want to watch the NFL on a mobile device.
The NFL, because of its audience sizes, more than any other pro sport, needs traditional tv to stay strong.
Will it. My guess is yes. But there are many who disagree with me.


So the conclusion ?
It's the same thing I tell my businesses and would tell every business. You shouldn't try to get every last second of a person's attention or every last penny that you can squeeze from them.
There is a big difference between optimizing the relationship you have with your customers and maximizing short term revenue. Building customers for life is about building relationships and anticipating customer wants and needs.
Customers/Fans/Advertisers know when they are being pushed. They know when they are being squeezed. It always ends up costing the business in the end.
And technology effects every business. You have to anticipate changes and all the possible points of change they will create in your business. I have talked about a few things the NFL will have to address over the next 10 years. If they don't get piggy, they should be ok. If not, they will implode.
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered
And if you have any questions, I can't get on here to answer them all, but in the spirit of wanting to plug another of my companies, Cyber Dust, if you download Cyber Dust on your Iphone/Ipad , you can message me at user ID Blogmaverick and i will respond to your individual question as best i can

Author:  Brick [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

rogers park bryan wrote:
Has any sport ever had to adapt like this? Cant think of any.
We already make a lot of different rules for youth sports compared to the higher levels. Baseball has tee ball and pitching limits. Soccer is almost certainly going to ban headers soon. Hockey doesn't allow checking at even the high school level I think.

Author:  Hawg Ass [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

I really hope this stuff you mention doesn't happen.

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Boilermaker Rick wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Has any sport ever had to adapt like this? Cant think of any.
We already make a lot of different rules for youth sports compared to the higher levels. Baseball has tee ball and pitching limits. Soccer is almost certainly going to ban headers soon. Hockey doesn't allow checking at even the high school level I think.

Right. But arm troubles in baseball dont really belong in that group.

Soccer just has to get rid of the headers and they're all good right?


Hockey is interesting like football, too

Author:  Curious Hair [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

rogers park bryan wrote:
Has any sport ever had to adapt like this? Cant think of any.


Hockey players didn't wear helmets once, "once" being the early 1990s for certain players. That's a pretty big adaptation.

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Curious Hair wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Has any sport ever had to adapt like this? Cant think of any.


Hockey players didn't wear helmets once, "once" being the early 1990s for certain players. That's a pretty big adaptation.

True. Hockey is right there.

Although, the helmet thing was an easy fix, ya know? I mean if the NFL could just slap a piece of equipment on to fix the concussion issue they'd be all about it.

Author:  veganfan21 [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

rogers park bryan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Has any sport ever had to adapt like this? Cant think of any.
We already make a lot of different rules for youth sports compared to the higher levels. Baseball has tee ball and pitching limits. Soccer is almost certainly going to ban headers soon. Hockey doesn't allow checking at even the high school level I think.

Right. But arm troubles in baseball dont really belong in that group.

Soccer just has to get rid of the headers and they're all good right?


Hockey is interesting like football, too


I think arm troubles are a tolerable risk. They'll hurt your career but not your quality of life. For Rick's idea, yeah there will be people looking to football simply as a means to a more lucrative life, or even as just a job/income, but the entire league is not comprised of people who could only sustain themselves financially by playing football. The more you see people with other options, whether those options be other.sports or other professional fields, elect to not pursue football over the years, the league will begin to have problems.

Author:  Brick [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

veganfan21 wrote:
I think arm troubles are a tolerable risk. They'll hurt your career but not your quality of life. For Rick's idea, yeah there will be people looking to football simply as a means to a more lucrative life, or even as just a job/income, but the entire league is not comprised of people who could only sustain themselves financially by playing football. The more you see people with other options, whether those options be other.sports or other professional fields, elect to not pursue football over the years, the league will begin to have problems.
Look at college football though. The amount of players across all college is still massive and that is providing a scholarship, or even a portion of a scholarship. There will always be plenty willing to play.

Chose your option:
1) Go play college football for $50k a year with a chance to make a lot more and get a college education.
2) Go work at a gas station for $9/hour.

#1 will always win, even with the potential of head trauma.

Author:  veganfan21 [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Boilermaker Rick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
I think arm troubles are a tolerable risk. They'll hurt your career but not your quality of life. For Rick's idea, yeah there will be people looking to football simply as a means to a more lucrative life, or even as just a job/income, but the entire league is not comprised of people who could only sustain themselves financially by playing football. The more you see people with other options, whether those options be other.sports or other professional fields, elect to not pursue football over the years, the league will begin to have problems.
Look at college football though. The amount of players across all college is still massive and that is providing a scholarship, or even a portion of a scholarship. There will always be plenty willing to play.

Chose your option:
1) Go play college football for $50k a year with a chance to make a lot more and get a college education.
2) Go work at a gas station for $9/hour.

#1 will always win, even with the potential of head trauma.


Yes but why are you excluding the third class: potential prospects who decline to pursue football any longer, go to college and get a job afterwards?

Author:  Brick [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

veganfan21 wrote:
Yes but why are you excluding the third class: potential prospects who decline to pursue football any longer, go to college and get a job afterwards?
They don't matter.

Author:  bigfan [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

I do agree with cuban about the nuermous games on more nights will create less attention. I rarely watch Thursday night now, Sunday nighta a little more, Monday night only if I have action.

Author:  conns7901 [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Boilermaker Rick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
I think arm troubles are a tolerable risk. They'll hurt your career but not your quality of life. For Rick's idea, yeah there will be people looking to football simply as a means to a more lucrative life, or even as just a job/income, but the entire league is not comprised of people who could only sustain themselves financially by playing football. The more you see people with other options, whether those options be other.sports or other professional fields, elect to not pursue football over the years, the league will begin to have problems.
Look at college football though. The amount of players across all college is still massive and that is providing a scholarship, or even a portion of a scholarship. There will always be plenty willing to play.

Chose your option:
1) Go play college football for $50k a year with a chance to make a lot more and get a college education.
2) Go work at a gas station for $9/hour.

#1 will always win, even with the potential of head trauma.


There are hundreds if not thousands of of kids who would end being very good football players who either were forced to quit by their parents or never allowed to join football over the past 4/5 years. There will always be football, but the over all talent level will take a hit. Just like boxing.

Also, you can check in high school hockey.

Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Thousands?!

Author:  Beebo [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 3:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

With respect to saturation, tell me how the NBA puts on so many games during the week, and draws eyes on TV/fill seats. Obviously, they can and do. The same kind of ratings, no, but they're doing okay.

NFL is a victim of the perception their games can only run on Sunday (nevermind the Monday and Thursday franchises.) If I wanted to watch the Bool every game, I'd be sitting in front of a TV many nights, "doing the same thing." Yeah? And how is this different from football junkies watching football every night? It's not.

As to the concussions, etc. Get rid of the exoskeleton-like padding, and give 'em leather helmets. People'll be less willing to dish out licks when it hurts them to do it. Or to take licks in return.

Author:  veganfan21 [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 5:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Beebo wrote:
With respect to saturation, tell me how the NBA puts on so many games during the week, and draws eyes on TV/fill seats. Obviously, they can and do. The same kind of ratings, no, but they're doing okay.

NFL is a victim of the perception their games can only run on Sunday (nevermind the Monday and Thursday franchises.) If I wanted to watch the Bool game, I'd be sitting in front of a TV many nights, "doing the same thing." Yeah? And how is this different from football junkies watching football every night? It's not.

As to the concussions, etc. Get rid of the exoskeleton-like padding, and give 'em leather helmets. People'll be less willing to dish out licks when it hurts them to do it. Or to take licks in return.


I think basically there is no way to mitigate health risks as far as brain damage is concerned without fundamentally altering the way defense is played . Clearly n a non-starter...for now . Improved technology and whatever is all bullshit . Just another way to make money by deception, just like "diet" soda .

Author:  FavreFan [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

veganfan21 wrote:
Improved technology and whatever is all bullshit . Just another way to make money by deception, just like "diet" soda .

Right. And I don't even think it's actually "improved" technology. It's the equivalent of throwing a filter on a cigarette 5 decades ago and calling it a safe alternative.

Author:  veganfan21 [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

FavreFan wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Improved technology and whatever is all bullshit . Just another way to make money by deception, just like "diet" soda .

Right. And I don't even think it's actually "improved" technology. It's the equivalent of throwing a filter on a cigarette 5 decades ago and calling it a safe alternative.


:lol: exactly if the point of all these helmet modifications is to soften or eliminate the force one feels from repeated blows to the head, then sooner or later you have to ask whether or not taking and subjecting others to repeated blows to the head in non war-zone situations is a good idea .

Author:  Hawg Ass [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

veganfan21 wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Improved technology and whatever is all bullshit . Just another way to make money by deception, just like "diet" soda .

Right. And I don't even think it's actually "improved" technology. It's the equivalent of throwing a filter on a cigarette 5 decades ago and calling it a safe alternative.


:lol: exactly if the point of all these helmet modifications is to soften or eliminate the force one feels from repeated blows to the head, then sooner or later you have to ask whether or not taking and subjecting others to repeated blows to the head in non war-zone situations is a good idea .

So, they can build walls and racecars that can do it, but they can't build a football helmet that can do it?

Author:  W_Z [ Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Frank Coztansa wrote:
Thousands?!


he didn't have a coke hhoohoho...

Author:  veganfan21 [ Wed Nov 19, 2014 5:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

Hawg Ass wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Improved technology and whatever is all bullshit . Just another way to make money by deception, just like "diet" soda .

Right. And I don't even think it's actually "improved" technology. It's the equivalent of throwing a filter on a cigarette 5 decades ago and calling it a safe alternative.


:lol: exactly if the point of all these helmet modifications is to soften or eliminate the force one feels from repeated blows to the head, then sooner or later you have to ask whether or not taking and subjecting others to repeated blows to the head in non war-zone situations is a good idea .

So, they can build walls and racecars that can do it, but they can't build a football helmet that can do it?


I'm not sure if I follow you here. Do you mean race car helmets or actual race cars? Race car helmets are not the first line of defense in an accident as you know. However strong your helmet is on a football field, the point is youre still taking shots to your head repeatedly. It's not enough to soften individual blows since, if you're a serious player, you're going to be absorbing those shots several hundred times over however many years you play.

Author:  Beebo [ Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the NFL

How do you feel about Rugby? Same sort of rough & tumble, but they have soccer-like unis. Mind you, rugby players have issues with broken shoulders, etc., but no one's really concerned about that.

Why? Because football hardens the uniforms to the point where its like these guys are all battering rams, crashing into each other at high speed.

Also, the action stops frequently. Which means, that you, as a defender, can take stock of the action, and aim yourself like a bullet straight to the QB or receiver. Much harder to do when you're in a non-stop run, shifting positions, etc.

But, people pay to see football. So its not going away. Even if your kids don't play on the high school team.

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