A lot has changed since the Grizzlies started the season scoring at a top-10 rate and looking like a legitimate title contender. Their offense has stalled out, falling to 19th in points per 100 possessions, and three other Western Conference contenders — the Spurs, Clippers, and Thunder — have settled in at a slightly higher level than Memphis. If Memphis can only squeeze a league-average offense out of this group, they’ll grade out as more of an “absolutely everything has to go right” fringe contender than a true title threat.

Those who subscribe to "The 5 Percent Theory” believe such fringe powers should go for it anyway, since very few teams each season even reach 5 percent territory. But the Grizzlies are about $4 million over the luxury tax, staring at a very expensive four-man core that, if left intact, could take Memphis over the tax line in this season and the following two. Three straight tax seasons wouldn’t trigger the dreaded repeater tax penalties, but that path would hamstring Memphis’ roster-building flexibility during those three years and could put the repeater penalties in play if the Grizz cross the tax later.

All of this explains why Memphis, over the last few weeks, has made it known in preliminary talks with other teams that Rudy Gay could be available via trade, according to sources around the league. Memphis also has a brand-new ownership and a revamped front office; John Hollinger and Jason Levien are in, longtime personnel gurus the Barones are out, and Chris Wallace’s current level of power as holdover GM is unclear. They can also cite their exciting 2011 playoff run without Gay, though that run involved a superhuman performance from Zach Randolph, a very good matchup in San Antonio, and a much deeper wing core with actual shooters.

Trading Gay will be hard. He makes a ton of money, and the Grizzlies, flush with productive big men, will almost certainly need to find another perimeter player in order to placate fans and (in theory) maintain their 5 percenter status. Memphis isn't necessarily shopping Gay at this point, since they're already very good and could cut salary in other ways; there's a long, long way to go before the trade deadline on February 21 — and before Memphis becomes a multi-year tax team.

The very best Gay deals would accomplish all of these things — get Memphis under this year’s tax line, keep them at about their current level within the league’s hierarchy, and clean up the future cap sheet a bit.

Gay is good but not great. He needs to take it to the hole more often.

He could do some more back door looks. He also really needs to finish with authority and stuff it home.

If they don't like him maybe the Bulls can convince them to take some expiring contracts and draft picks or take Boozer back so they could amnesty him. Gay is a stud.

If they don't like him maybe the Bulls can convince them to take some expiring contracts and draft picks or take Boozer back so they could amnesty him. Gay is a stud.

Admittedly I have not see Gay play. I looked at his 2012-2013 numbers vs Deng, and they are worse (albeit close). Isn't our biggest need a real guard complement to Rose?

If they don't like him maybe the Bulls can convince them to take some expiring contracts and draft picks or take Boozer back so they could amnesty him. Gay is a stud.

I dont think that makes either team better. Gay isn't worth what he's paid and there's no reason to have Deng or Gay play out of position.

You don't think Gay makes the Bulls better? Gay is one of those guys who is bigger, but can score like a guard. Deng is a better defender, but Gay can put the ball on the floor and penetrate as well as shoot from the outside, either by spotting up or coming off screens. I think he'd work very well with what the Bulls have.

I'd much rather try to find a way to get a guy like Kevin Martin this offseason at 2/3's or half the cost of Gay.

Just thinking about two guards here.......free ajents for 2013:

OJ Mayo
Kevin Martin
Monta Ellis
J.R. Smith

Smith would be a nightmare for Thibs, and Paxson doesn't like him.

Mayo...meh. He's alright but not much better than good.

My obvious first choice would be Martin, but I think if they got Ellis in here, he'd flourish under Thibs.

Nick Young will also be available.