http://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/newsroom/newsn/2739/all-star-pitchers-will-hate-instant-replay-according-to-new-research-from-columbia-business-school(the url is basically "pitchers hate this guy" ... really?)
Columbia Business School Professor Reviews Data of Nearly 800K MLB Pitches and Finds ‘Star-Struck’ Umpires Show Bias in Favor of All-Star Pitchers
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The study reviewed nearly 800,000 pitches from roughly 5,000 games in 2008 and 2009 and compared these pitches to the MLB’s official strike zone. The researchers found that umpires grant a larger and more generous strike zone to All-Star pitchers, and were also less likely to miss pitches that were in the official strike zone for these pitchers.
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The research revealed additional startling takeaways regarding umpire bias:
- Umpires make a mistake on around 14% of all called pitches by either calling a pitch outside the strike zone a ball, or calling a pitch inside the zone a strike.
- An umpire is about 16% more likely to erroneously call a pitch outside the strike zone for a five-time All-Star pitcher than he is for a player who has never gone to an All-Star game.
- An umpire is about 9% less likely to mistakenly call a real strike a ball for a five-time All-Star.
- These mistakes happen at a higher rate when the stakes are high (i.e., important game situations).
- All-Star batters also receive the benefit of the doubt from umpires, but the effect was smaller than for pitchers.
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Kim and King reviewed nearly 800,000 pitches using the MLB’s four high-speed cameras installed in each MLB stadium. The cameras take 25 snapshots of each pitch, capturing the speed and spin rate from different angles, and recording where in the strike zone the pitch lands.
This data, collected from almost 5,000 games in 2008 and 2009, gave the researchers exact measures of quality that they could compare to umpires’ actual calls, which they compared with player stats and All-Star Ballot standing. The two used the MLB’s official strike zone images, alongside the exact coordinates from the videos to determine whether the pitch was an actual ball or strike.
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Not the least interesting application of medicinal study by the numbers of baseball ever produced, but criminey, whoever wrote this breathless PR piece should be shipped to North Korea in a wooden crate.