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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:30 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Like I said, the defense that goes into WAR is just weighted poorly


Why do you say its "weighted poorly?"

Just because every time there is a weird guy in the top ten, his dWAR is always carrying him and using common sense, you see that Darwin Barney's glove shouldnt be given the same weight as a guy hitting 25 homeruns or some such thing.


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:32 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Like I said, the defense that goes into WAR is just weighted poorly


Why do you say its "weighted poorly?"

Just because every time there is a weird guy in the top ten, his dWAR is always carrying him and using common sense, you see that Darwin Barney's glove shouldnt be given the same weight as a guy hitting 25 homeruns or some such thing.


How many runs did he save?


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:33 pm 
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I should say, this is just my takeaway from a few instances, no idea if it holds up.

All I know is the oWAR list usually makes more sense than the regular one.


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:34 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Like I said, the defense that goes into WAR is just weighted poorly


Why do you say its "weighted poorly?"

Just because every time there is a weird guy in the top ten, his dWAR is always carrying him and using common sense, you see that Darwin Barney's glove shouldnt be given the same weight as a guy hitting 25 homeruns or some such thing.


I think the problem is not the weighting, but the number they plug in may be wildly inaccurate. If you look at how they come up with the weighting of defense, it makes sense. I mean a hit prevented is pretty much like a hit created, right?

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:42 pm 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Nas wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:

It's called the "it" factor. You can define it but you know it when you see it. It doesn't always show up on a stat sheet.


You think Theriot has the "it" factor?


No. However if you watch him play you may believe he does things that won't show up on a stat sheet. He's a scrappy player that brings a lot of energy.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:51 pm 
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Nas wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Nas wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:

It's called the "it" factor. You can define it but you know it when you see it. It doesn't always show up on a stat sheet.


You think Theriot has the "it" factor?


No. However if you watch him play you may believe he does things that won't show up on a stat sheet. He's a scrappy player that brings a lot of energy.



Are you trolling me?


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:53 pm 
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I can't even tell what is being argued here. It's like a couple guys arguing against "other" peoples' arguments that nobody is making.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 12:56 pm 
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PHOENIX—The entire field of sabermetrics was thrown into a frenzied panic Thursday after a previously undocumented at bat from former St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lou Brock on August 3, 1975 forced sabermetricians to completely rethink their understanding of the sport of baseball. “So if you plug Brock’s 3-2 count and ground out into the OPS formula, the standard deviation and expected value for every single player and team is completely off—goddammit, none of this makes sense now,” said visibly anxious Society for American Baseball Research sabermetrician Tony Branham, sweating profusely as he pored over thousands of pages of statistics from the last 30 MLB seasons. “The Total Pitcher Index, Wins Above Replacement, Batter-Fielder Wins, batting averages, ERAs, RBIs—that one third-inning at bat against the Cubs makes all of this stuff meaningless. How the hell does baseball work?” At press time, based on the new understanding of sabermetrics, Braham confirmed that former New York Yankees first baseman Mickey Mantle did not actually exist.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:09 pm 
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Bucky Chris wrote:


Are you trolling me?


No. I can see how someone could have looked at Theriot a few years back and preferred him over a player who may have had a slightly higher WAR. We had a debate in another thread about Asik and Noah. Looking at their stats you would not say Noah was WAY better but the eye test tells you Noah is way more valuable and you watch him do things that won't show up on a stat sheet.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:16 pm 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Like I said, the defense that goes into WAR is just weighted poorly


Why do you say its "weighted poorly?"

Just because every time there is a weird guy in the top ten, his dWAR is always carrying him and using common sense, you see that Darwin Barney's glove shouldnt be given the same weight as a guy hitting 25 homeruns or some such thing.


How many runs did he save?


"Saving a run" isn't concrete like hitting a single. What is the value of saving a run when your team is winning 10-2?

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:20 pm 
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Whats the value of saving a run when its 0-0 in the 6th inning?

Whats the value of hitting a single with 2 outs in the 9th inning when your team is losing 10-2, and the pitcher on the mound was a struggling starter and now is doing mop up duty out of the bullpen, and the very batter who hit that single went 0-2 earlier in the game while the bases were loaded and the score was only 2-1?

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:25 pm 
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That is why you have to watch the games. Aramis Ramirez stats look great most seasons. If you're studying WAR you may not notice most of that happens in the 2nd half of the season after his poor play hurt his team playoff chances in the 1st half.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:26 pm 
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Nas wrote:
That is why you have to watch the games. Aramis Ramirez stats look great most seasons. If you're studying WAR you may not notice most of that happens in the 2nd half of the season after his poor play hurt his team playoff chances in the 1st half.

That was only true in the latter years when they had no chance

2004-2008 he had great first halves


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:30 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Nas wrote:
That is why you have to watch the games. Aramis Ramirez stats look great most seasons. If you're studying WAR you may not notice most of that happens in the 2nd half of the season after his poor play hurt his team playoff chances in the 1st half.

That was only true in the latter years when they had no chance

2004-2008 he had great first halves

Dont know where this came from that Ramirez was a bumslayer. I seem to remember him being one of the only guys who hit good pitching on the good Cubs teams.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:31 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Whats the value of saving a run when its 0-0 in the 6th inning?

Whats the value of hitting a single with 2 outs in the 9th inning when your team is losing 10-2, and the pitcher on the mound was a struggling starter and now is doing mop up duty out of the bullpen?



Exactly. Are those random events? Or are they caused by the people involved? Is Tuffy Rhodes really the equal of Reggie Jackson except for his misfortune in hitting his homers on opening day rather than in a World Series game? That was tough luck for Tuffy. He could have been Mr. October instead of Mr. April.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:32 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Nas wrote:
That is why you have to watch the games. Aramis Ramirez stats look great most seasons. If you're studying WAR you may not notice most of that happens in the 2nd half of the season after his poor play hurt his team playoff chances in the 1st half.

That was only true in the latter years when they had no chance

2004-2008 he had great first halves


I remember him have very poor April's and May's and then becoming a monster when the weather heated up.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:34 pm 
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You guys act like WAR doesn't have splits. We can calculate WAR after injuries, per month, or even when games are close compared to when they aren't.


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:35 pm 
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http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/601 ... pe=Batting

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:46 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Is Tuffy Rhodes really the equal of Reggie Jackson except for his misfortune in hitting his homers on opening day rather than in a World Series game? That was tough luck for Tuffy. He could have been Mr. October instead of Mr. April.
If he was on a better team, he might have been. Who knows. Just like if Chris Sale happened to be on a better team, he would have a winning record.



I'm not so sure why some give Joe Orr a pass because he says some pretty flat out stupid things regarding sports;

"Chris Sale is not having a very good year"
"Baseball is more popular than football"
"The Sox did not choke last September"

I guess you can't really quantify a "choke", but there are certainly a lot of numbers out there that prove Orr to be flat out wrong on those first two. In fact, statistically, you could actually make a compelling case that Chris Sale has been the best SP in the AL this season. One could easily find at least a dozen articles you could find about the NFL and how much money they make off of TV and products. I mean, if I said some of these things or some other people on this board said any of those or something similar, they would be getting torn apart all across the board, and perhaps even a knew board meme would be born. There's a few that have taken Orr to task, but he has taken nowhere near the beating that some others have for posting such off the wall things.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:24 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Just like if Chris Sale happened to be on a better team, he would have a winning record.


How could you possibly know that? More claptrap.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:27 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:



I'm not so sure why some give Joe Orr a pass because he says some pretty flat out stupid things regarding sports;


"Chris Sale is not having a very good year" 5-8 is not a good year.
"Baseball is more popular than football" Baseball fans don't hate to attend games. Baseball sells more merchandise.
"The Sox did not choke last September" I think this season proves that. Pretty much the same team and they are atrocious. The 2012 Sox just played way over their heads all season.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:33 pm 
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Orr, do you believe Scherzer is the best pitcher in the league this year?

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:37 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
Orr, do you believe Scherzer is the best pitcher in the league this year?


He certainly belongs in the conversation.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:38 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
Orr, do you believe Scherzer is the best pitcher in the league this year?


since i'm his mult, allow me to say fuck no!

then again.... would you rather have matt moore @ ~12-3 ~3.60/1.20 or thereabouts, or matt harvey who had to give up 5 late runs to get roughed up to 2.27/~0.95?

of course scherzer wins. fatality.

clayton kershaw is kind of evening out as the best pitcher in baseball after all of the dust settles, tho idk his W/L totals off the top of my head. it's been that watching/following games everyday thing that tells me that

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:38 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
Orr, do you believe Scherzer is the best pitcher in the league this year?

If I may interject here, Id say that Scherzer has been the better pitcher in the games he has started against his opponent. And thats all he has to better than.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:04 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Apologist wrote:
Orr, do you believe Scherzer is the best pitcher in the league this year?

If I may interject here, Id say that Scherzer has been the better pitcher in the games he has started against his opponent. And thats all he has to better than.


That's straight outta the ORR playbook. I guess I should have phrased the question differently.. if you had to win one game, for whatever theoretical team you care to imagine, and could magically put one guy on your roster for 24 hours to start; who would you want?

In that case there are a number of guys I would take before Mad Max... Wainwright, Kershaw, Cliff Lee, and Darvish to name a few off the top of my head. Still, Scherzer's performance is "in the bank" already as it were.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:12 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Apologist wrote:
Orr, do you believe Scherzer is the best pitcher in the league this year?

If I may interject here, Id say that Scherzer has been the better pitcher in the games he has started against his opponent. And thats all he has to better than.


That's straight outta the ORR playbook. I guess I should have phrased the question differently.. if you had to win one game, for whatever theoretical team you care to imagine, and could magically put one guy on your roster for 24 hours to start; who would you want?

In that case there are a number of guys I would take before Mad Max... Wainwright, Kershaw, Cliff Lee, and Darvish to name a few off the top of my head. Still, Scherzer's performance is "in the bank" already as it were.

If it were this year, Id take Scherzer just as much as Id take any of the others you mentioned.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:19 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Apologist wrote:
Orr, do you believe Scherzer is the best pitcher in the league this year?

If I may interject here, Id say that Scherzer has been the better pitcher in the games he has started against his opponent. And thats all he has to better than.


That's right. A pitcher has to pitch the games he's actually in. That's all he can do.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:56 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 6:09 pm 
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I've come to the conclusion that JORR is a crazy old motherfucker who wants you off his lawn, and there is no reasoning with him. I like it. He adds flavor.

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