Should we ignore all the guys he faces who pitch better than he does? The Mets average about half a run less per game than the best offense in the NL. Shouldn't a real Cy Young candidate be able to pitch over that when facing mostly ordinary pitchers?

Why look at the team’s run support over the entire season for all pitchers on the team? Why not look at the team’s output when the pitcher in question is on the mound? deGrom has the 12th lowest run support out of 108 pitchers with at least 100 innings so far this season.

Why look at the team’s run support over the entire season for all pitchers on the team? Why not look at the team’s output when the pitcher in question is on the mound? deGrom has the 12th lowest run support out of 108 pitchers with at least 100 innings so far this season.

Because that ignores the game conditions where a "lesser pitcher" outperformed deGrom. Unless you believe that the Mets purposely don't score when deGrom pitches.

Not to mention that run averages are skewed by 24 run outbursts against position players on the mound.

There is absolutely some psychological stuff involved when the ACE is on the mound vs. the Chatwood

And the half run difference is not meaningless or insignificant.

By definition it is, since there is no way to score half a run. In a practical sense the offenses are dead even and you have the great deGrom pitching.

No, that's incorrect and ridiculous to even suggest. As if a pitcher with a 3.01 era is equal to a guy with a 3.99 era.


Anyway, I just think you should cut to the chase and start with THIS part. This is the part of the discussion that matters.

In a single game there is no difference between those two pitchers. That's why 3.99 guys outpitch 3.01 guys all the time.

Even so, with pitchers it's different in that we're discussing a single piece. Either he's good today or not. It's more likely that the 3.01 guy is going to be better than the 3.99 guy. An offense is composed of many more parts. And they shouldn't be functioning at their best vs. Cy Young

There is definitely a difference and he doesnt outpitch him all the time, quite the opposite.

BTW, what happens when a superstar offensive player gets hurt? Is his team still the 4.53 runs per game team without him? Do you adjust for that? What if Mike Trout is suspended for a game? Angels still the same offense? Is a win over them equal to a win over them with Trout in the lineup?

Are you making my argument for me? You're pointing out another flaw in "run support" stats.

This is it. There's finally going to a middle ground struck, and a common understanding accepted between the two sides. Historic day.

In a single game there is no difference between those two pitchers. That's why 3.99 guys outpitch 3.01 guys all the time.

Your elementary, middle school, high school and college teachers are all rolling over in their graves.

As usual the truth is in the middle. W-L should not be dismissed, but it shouldnt be worshipped either.

And the thought that any offense that is within one run per game of another is exactly the same is crazy.

You'll need to explain how a team can score a fraction of a run and why we would expect them to score it off a guy you are touting for Cy Young.

Again, a team doesnt need to score a fraction of a run for .99 average over 162 games to be significant.

The problem with using a W/L record to assess a pitcher is that a team's offense, relief pitching, and defense all impact a team's odds of winning yet the starting pitcher only impacts the innings they pitch. Did people even read the article? In his 6 loses the team scored 10 runs. In his 10 no-decisions he has allowed 10 earned runs. C'mon- this is not a tough one.

But I would argue that that's too many guys pitching as well or better than you did in the same games.

But not against the same quality team as evidenced by the run support stat I posted. Plus, those pitchers have not pitched as well the entire season. How do we know that? deGrom's stats are right at the top for every major category. deGrom's record is due to him playing on a poor team and being unlucky. Has Lester been a better pitcher than deGrom this season?