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Who needs PECOTA?
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=121639		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  KDdidit [ Wed May 20, 2020 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Who needs PECOTA?
Baseball Reference is running a 2020 simulation while the league is off using Out of the Park Baseball (A pretty great game if you all you care about is numbers and not gameplay). Based on this it's a good thing for the Cubs they're not playing.





Image
Author:  Jaw Breaker [ Wed May 20, 2020 2:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
Looks about right.
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Wed May 20, 2020 2:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad
Author:  Nardi [ Wed May 20, 2020 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad

Fucking Indians. They just keep plugging in pitchers. I JUST CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE!
Author:  tommy [ Wed May 20, 2020 2:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
Look at the White Sox, about to make their move. Seems very '83-esque.
Author:  312player [ Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
I think this shortened season is great for the Cubs, we only need 90 innings from Lester, Darvish, Hendricks and Quintana. Those guys can all get hot.
Author:  Phil Leotardo [ Wed May 20, 2020 3:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
Garbage. Seattle and Colorado aren't very good. SD, Philly, Cubs, and Texas way too low. Brewers aren't good either.
Author:  good dolphin [ Fri May 22, 2020 10:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
tommy wrote:
Look at the White Sox, about to make their move. Seems very '83-esque.


Who would be the aging veteran he has always coveted that KW would be pushing to acquire if this season was a reality?
Author:  Pal [ Fri May 22, 2020 12:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
good dolphin wrote:
tommy wrote:
Look at the White Sox, about to make their move. Seems very '83-esque.


Who would be the aging veteran he has always coveted that KW would be pushing to acquire if this season was a reality?

Charlie Blackmon
Author:  Juiced [ Fri May 22, 2020 1:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad


I'd like to see the injury reports for the teams. That .380 might reflect their lack of depth. If a couple pitchers went down, then I could see it being pretty accurate.
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Fri May 22, 2020 1:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
Juiced wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad


I'd like to see the injury reports for the teams. That .380 might reflect their lack of depth. If a couple pitchers went down, then I could see it being pretty accurate.
Maybe they had to play 40 games in 41 days to start the season.
Author:  Hatchetman [ Fri May 22, 2020 1:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
these statistical things always have problems. Kopech pitched in two games in 2018, at least one with a torn ACL. so that obviously killed his numbers. but the computer doesn't get that, in just puts those numbers into the model. so in this simulation, Kopech is getting blitzed.

stuff like that bugs me.
Author:  KDdidit [ Fri May 22, 2020 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
I think it models the Cubs really suck, other than Riz, KB, Baez, and maybe Yu and Hendricks, pretty well.

Lol, losing pitcher Jose Quintana
Code:
Jose Quintana   31   1   6   .143   6.89   


Hatchetman wrote:
these statistical things always have problems. Kopech pitched in two games in 2018, at least one with a torn ACL. so that obviously killed his numbers. but the computer doesn't get that, in just puts those numbers into the model. so in this simulation, Kopech is getting blitzed.

stuff like that bugs me.


He's only pitched 9 innings in the model he'll be fine, unless he won't be.
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Fri May 22, 2020 1:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
Poor, unlucky Quintana can't even get run support in a simulated season!
Author:  Hatchetman [ Fri May 22, 2020 2:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
KDdidit wrote:

He's only pitched 9 innings in the model he'll be fine, unless he won't be.


I'm not worried about him in real life but in order for a statistical forecasting model to generate those results, something has to be jacked up with the underlying data.
Author:  Juiced [ Fri May 22, 2020 2:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Juiced wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad


I'd like to see the injury reports for the teams. That .380 might reflect their lack of depth. If a couple pitchers went down, then I could see it being pretty accurate.
Maybe they had to play 40 games in 41 days to start the season.


:lol:
Author:  KDdidit [ Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
Image

Not getting much better for the Cubs. Q, Chatwood, and Yu going a combined 6-22.

After 20 innings, Hatch's guy Kopech still getting shelled.
Author:  BigW72 [ Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who needs PECOTA?
There's no way I'd have the Indians leading the Twins in the division, yet alone have a .629 winning %. That's....delusional. The Twins would likely have the division wire to wire.

I also think their being a bit hard on the Cubs and Padres.
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