Post all your "Strikeouts do matter", "WAR is a useless stat", "I use the eye test" comments here


and the Pro Saber people will battle you.


Good luck to all. Lets keep it clean.


To Begin let me throw a few facts out there


Billy Beane did NOT write Moneyball

Moneyball was NOT about recognizing OBP, it was about finding undervalued stats

Theo Epstein used a Sabermetric approach (hiring Bill James) to win 2 World Series

What is the proof that Sabermetrics actually works?

What is the proof that Sabermetrics actually works? Obviously, having any type of statistical information is helpful. I'm not talking about changing baseball thinking like stolen bases are bad if you get caught too much or that strikeouts are better than double plays.

What has been proven so that "Player X is better than Player Y because his WAR is better" is considered a complete and valid argument?

One of the biggest flaws I see in sabermetrics is that it was guaranteed to be an answer. It's kind of like the stock market. I can create a pretty strong algorithm that explains what happened in the past. It is taking the information and modeling it and then noticing patterns and building something that fairly accurately models those patterns. Does that mean that it is valid to describe todays situation and the future? How do I go about proving that?

There was another thread where DAC referenced career WAR and that was it. What has sabermetrics done to reach the level of trustability that simply saying "his WAR is higher" is a valid argument?

Brick, no one is claiming that saber stats will tell you what a player will do in the future. All it is is a mishmash of statistics that create another one that consolidates. Similar to how you could look at a pitchers hits, and walks and innings pitched seperately or you could you at a WHIP. Does WHIP tell a better story than the three stats individually? no, because as we know singles and doubles are more "valuable" to an offense than a walk is, yet they're counted the same in WHIP, but again, it's just another tool.

Boston had the second highest payroll in MLB in 2004 and they were $24 million above third place.

WAR is not a perfect stat. There is no perfect stat. The point of sabermetrics is not to create one perfect stat. Its to examine the numbers in every way possible and try and figure out which ones are predictive.

But as far as an all encompassing stat. WAR is probably the best we have right now.

And Bill James, Godfather of Saber, has always maintained the numbers are a tool to go along side the eye test.

I dont get the anti numbers thing.

Yankees had the highest payroll from 2001-2008 and won 0 WS. Boston won 2 in that time.

The fact is Theo Epstein used Sabermetrics to put together his team and theyve had a bunch of success.

You asked for proof and I gave it to you.

Yankees had the highest payroll from 2001-2008 and won 0 WS. Boston won 2 in that time.

The fact is Theo Epstein used Sabermetrics to put together his team and theyve had a bunch of success.

You asked for proof and I gave it to you.

If Sabermetrics only tell you how good someone is after the fact how is it useful in running a baseball operation? I believe that one of the primary goals is to use it to predict current and future production. Otherwise, if it's just a historical record of what happened it's kind of useless.

Walks are not as important as hits (singles) because lots of things can happen on a hit that can't happen on a walk. For instance, a runner can take an extra base like 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home. The fielder can make an error which causes runners to move another base or more. Open bases, like a runner on 3rd, make a walk less valuable as it does not move all runners along.

I don't understand why people try to frame this as an us vs them argument. Statistical analysis and scouting are both essential for the success of an organization and anyone who thinks one is more important than the other is an idiot.

First of all, no one said Walks and hits are equal.

Secondly the whole idea with these numbers is to figure out the percentages. You dont have to guess. A walk has a certain value and a hit has a certain value. They both lead to a certain number of runs scoring. Then you figure out what the difference in value is. Now you apply that and figure out

Is a guy who gets 30 more hits worth 3 million more than a guy who might get 20 more walks?


Your statement is good case for Saber

Cmon Brick.
ALL stats do is tell you the past. Saber stats, and your traditional stats.
No matter what stat you looked at on Adam Dunn, they did not predict his shit performance in 2011.

He also outspent everyone but the Yankees, who happen to have 5 titles since Billy Beane "changed the way the game is played".

You asked for proof and I gave it to you.

If Sabermetrics only tell you how good someone is after the fact how is it useful in running a baseball operation? I believe that one of the primary goals is to use it to predict current and future production. Otherwise, if it's just a historical record of what happened it's kind of useless.

WAR is not a perfect stat. There is no perfect stat. The point of sabermetrics is not to create one perfect stat. Its to examine the numbers in every way possible and try and figure out which ones are predictive.
.

I won't agree about a strikeout better than a ball in play.

But a single and walk are worth the same in OBP, aren't they?

No one said he changed the way the game is played. You obviously have a grudge against Billy Beane. You think its easy to win 90 plus game three years in a row in a small market.

Even if Beane is a terrible GM (He's not) Sabermetrics and their value are not determined by Billy Beane's performance alone....which should be quite obvious, Boilermaker Hawk.

If you look at the players he's targeted Youk (aka The Greek God of Walks), Mike Lowell, High strikeout pitchers and how he's had an uncanny record of getting rid of great players right before they fall off (Pedro, Manny, Foulke, ) its obvious that what how he analyzes the past and predicts the future works well.

It's easier than playing in 3 straight World Series, which is what the A's did almost right before Billy Beane first joined the organization. Everyone acts like the Athletics were the Cubs and hadn't done anything for decades.

Even if Beane is a terrible GM (He's not) Sabermetrics and their value are not determined by Billy Beane's performance alone....which should be quite obvious, Boilermaker Hawk.

If you look at the players he's targeted Youk (aka The Greek God of Walks), Mike Lowell, High strikeout pitchers and how he's had an uncanny record of getting rid of great players right before they fall off (Pedro, Manny, Foulke, ) its obvious that what how he analyzes the past and predicts the future works well.

Well, name some guys that used Saber that arent successful.

But when KW puts together 6 playoff appearances in 7 years while getting rid of all star players and finding new ones every year I will give him credit.