Chicago Fanatics Message Board
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/

Mike Trout is the MVP
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=73558
Page 1 of 12

Author:  Bucky Chris [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 6:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Mike Trout is the MVP

http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/ang ... ar-says-so

Miguel Cabrera may be on his way to winning the first Triple Crown since 1967, but by using Wins Above Replacement to judge a player’s overall contribution to his team, Mike Trout has been by far the most valuable player in the MLB this season.

Essentially, the metric considers three areas in which a position player can contribute: hitting, defense and baserunning.

This season, Trout has 10.4 WAR compared with 6.8 for Cabrera. Trout has compiled that number in 21 fewer games than Cabrera.

Hitting

Trout and Cabrera are outstanding hitters; their averages and on-base percentages are very close. Cabrera’s big advantage is in his power, but Trout is no slouch there, either.
Trout Cabrera
BA .323 .331
OBP .394 .396
ISO* .231 .283
RBI 78 133
*Isolated power (Extra bases per AB)

One stat people consider when comparing the two is Cabrera’s gaudy RBI total compared to Trout, but that’s not entirely fair because Trout is a lead-off hitter while Cabrera bats third.

Trout has done nearly as well as Cabrera with RISP, batting .327 compared to Cabrera’s .355, he’s just had fewer opportunities to knock in runs. He also doesn’t have the benefit of Prince Fielder batting behind him.

Defense

If baseball were simply a hitting contest, Cabrera would be the victor. But players can make a huge impact on the other side of the ball, as well as on the base paths.

Most Defensive Runs Saved, 2012
Brendan Ryan 28
Mike Trout 27
Darwin Barney 26
Michael Bourn 24
*Miguel Cabrera: -4

The defensive portion of WAR is calculated from Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) statistic, which is formulated from video review. Over 80 types of good fielding plays and defensive misplays are considered (not just errors) and a player is credited for making plays the average fielder makes. Likewise, they are debited for not making plays an average fielder makes.

The gap between Trout and Cabrera’s fielding ability alone is worth roughly three wins per season to a team.

Baserunning

It’s well accepted that Mike Trout is an outstanding baserunner, while Miguel Cabrera leaves much to be desired.

Most Runs Added Baserunning, '12
Mike Trout 12
Michael Bourn 10
Tony Campana 9
Ben Revere 8
Desmond Jennings 8
*Miguel Cabrera: -4

Putting some numbers behind it, Baseball-Reference.com estimates that Trout has produced an additional 12 runs for the Angels this season with his feet alone. This includes his ability to steal bases without being caught (league-leading 46 stolen bases to four caught stealing), to avoid double plays (just seven this season) and to go first to third on singles and score easily from second.

Cabrera, on the other hand, has cost the Tigers about four runs with his feet. A large portion of that can be attributed to Cabrera’s league-leading 28 GIDPs (grounded into double play).
1st->3rd 2nd->Home GIDP
Trout 63% 68% 9%
Cabrera 29% 63% 20%

At right are Trout’s and Cabrera’s percentages of advancing when given an opportunity. The GIDP % is per opportunity.

Author:  RFDC [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

If you win the triple crown and your team is in contention you are the MVP. Those stats and figures are nice, but let's not get crazy with them.

Author:  redskingreg [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

RFDC wrote:
If you win the triple crown and your team is in contention you are the MVP. Those stats and figures are nice, but let's not get crazy with them.


There are players that have had better seasons than Cabrera who did not win the triple crown. Triple crown does not equal MVP.

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

redskingreg wrote:
RFDC wrote:
If you win the triple crown and your team is in contention you are the MVP. Those stats and figures are nice, but let's not get crazy with them.


There are players that have had better seasons than Cabrera who did not win the triple crown. Triple crown does not equal MVP.

Agreed. Its Trout.

If Adam Dunn has a big week there is no triple crown....but Trout still set the world on fire all year.

Author:  312player [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 6:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Can't argue with either guy getting it..would give the nod to Cabrera if they win the division and he stays hot..but I think the Sox win the central..Detroit stays home..so Trout mvp.

Author:  bigfan [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 6:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

The Vet would get the nod....and the Roikie might be under some suspicion.

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 6:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

redskingreg wrote:
There are players that have had better seasons than Cabrera who did not win the triple crown.


And there are players that have had worse seasons than Cabrera who did win the MVP.

I look at it like this. If I've got a one-run lead with two outs and the bases loaded, I know which of those two I'd prefer to face.

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 7:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
redskingreg wrote:
There are players that have had better seasons than Cabrera who did not win the triple crown.


And there are players that have had worse seasons than Cabrera who did win the MVP.

I look at it like this. If I've got a one-run lead with two outs and the bases loaded, I know which of those two I'd prefer to face.

But if you had a 2 run lead in the 9th, I know which one would get replaced defensively.


The Triple Crown should have no bearing on it, imo. If Dunn ends up with one more homerun that wont change Cabrera's season for me.


I think Trout helped his team win more games than Cabrera

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 7:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
redskingreg wrote:
There are players that have had better seasons than Cabrera who did not win the triple crown.


And there are players that have had worse seasons than Cabrera who did win the MVP.

I look at it like this. If I've got a one-run lead with two outs and the bases loaded, I know which of those two I'd prefer to face.

But if you had a 2 run lead in the 9th, I know which one would get replaced defensively.


The Triple Crown should have no bearing on it, imo. If Dunn ends up with one more homerun that wont change Cabrera's season for me.


I think Trout helped his team win more games than Cabrera



I'm not sure who helped his team win more. But you and I both know the defense of these guys is insignificant and the MVP certainly isn't hinging on that.

I remember a previous conversation we had where you insisted along with Darkside that the Tigers offense was better than that of the White Sox. That was in spite of the fact that the Sox had outscored the Tigers. They Sox have continued to outscore Detroit and will almost certainly finish the season with more runs scored. It seemed as if you and Darkside simply wanted to insist that Detroit has a better offense "because everyone thinks so" or "just because they do." A better argument would be to compare the two home parks of the teams. I might make the same argument in Cabrera's favor as his numbers have almost certainly been held down by playing half his games in a vast ballpark.

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 7:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
redskingreg wrote:
There are players that have had better seasons than Cabrera who did not win the triple crown.


And there are players that have had worse seasons than Cabrera who did win the MVP.

I look at it like this. If I've got a one-run lead with two outs and the bases loaded, I know which of those two I'd prefer to face.

But if you had a 2 run lead in the 9th, I know which one would get replaced defensively.


The Triple Crown should have no bearing on it, imo. If Dunn ends up with one more homerun that wont change Cabrera's season for me.


I think Trout helped his team win more games than Cabrera



I'm not sure who helped his team win more. But you and I both know the defense of these guys is insignificant and the MVP certainly isn't hinging on that.

I remember a previous conversation we had where you insisted along with Darkside that the Tigers offense was better than that of the White Sox. That was in spite of the fact that the Sox had outscored the Tigers. They Sox have continued to outscore Detroit and will almost certainly finish the season with more runs scored. It seemed as if you and Darkside simply wanted to insist that Detroit has a better offense "because everyone thinks so" or "just because they do." A better argument would be to compare the two home parks of the teams. I might make the same argument in Cabrera's favor as his numbers have almost certainly been held down by playing half his games in a vast ballpark.

You are not remembering that correctly and attributing things DS said to me.

On paper, I expected the Tigers to be better, nothing more. I make no apologies for that.

I dont think the defense is totally insignificant here because you have one guy who is a complete butcher and another guy who is a gold glover

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 7:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

rogers park bryan wrote:
You are not remembering that correctly and attributing things DS said to me.

On paper, I expected the Tigers to be better, nothing more. I make no apologies for that.

I dont think the defense is totally insignificant here because you have one guy who is a complete butcher and another guy who is a gold glover


I'm pretty sure you flat out said the Tigers had a better offense. If I weren't one of your mults I'd go look it up and bump the thread.

Anyway, I never said that the Sox offense was better. I think they're fairly similar and, in fact, would probably give the edge to Detroit myself based on the ballparks. I heard bernstein the other day (apologies to OKC and cpguy) say that he figured park factor had something to do with Fielder's "less than great" season. he then looked up Fielder's splits and upon seeing that he hit more homers at home, leapt to a bad conclusion- that the park wasn't a factor at all. Rather than wondering if Fielder is just a much better player at home, which is a real possibility.

I would agree that elite defense, particularly at positions up the middle, can be important.

Author:  badrogue17 [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

RFDC wrote:
If you win the triple crown and your team is in contention you are the MVP. Those stats and figures are nice, but let's not get crazy with them.


Teddy Ballgame wrote:
Sure , now you motherfuckers say that, try telling that to the Boston media. Anyone have a heavy blanket I can borrow, Im cold.

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
You are not remembering that correctly and attributing things DS said to me.

On paper, I expected the Tigers to be better, nothing more. I make no apologies for that.

I dont think the defense is totally insignificant here because you have one guy who is a complete butcher and another guy who is a gold glover


I'm pretty sure you flat out said the Tigers had a better offense.

Correct, but I said going forward and in a one game scenario I would take the Tigers. You are painting it like I was denying math. I went to great lengths to frame my opinion.



JORR, Detroit's offense is better. They have better offensive players overall. Regardless of what has happened so far this season.

I think the Tiger offense is a little better (mainly due to Cabrera and Fielder) and I agree with DS that for a one game scenario, Most people would take the Tigers.

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
You are not remembering that correctly and attributing things DS said to me.

On paper, I expected the Tigers to be better, nothing more. I make no apologies for that.

I dont think the defense is totally insignificant here because you have one guy who is a complete butcher and another guy who is a gold glover


I'm pretty sure you flat out said the Tigers had a better offense.

Correct, but I said going forward and in a one game scenario I would take the Tigers. You are painting it like I was denying math. I went to great lengths to frame my opinion.



JORR, Detroit's offense is better. They have better offensive players overall. Regardless of what has happened so far this season.

I think the Tiger offense is a little better (mainly due to Cabrera and Fielder) and I agree with DS that for a one game scenario, Most people would take the Tigers.



Okay, but for how long must the Sox outscore them for you to reconsider your opinion?

I think most people would take the Tigers for one game because they'd likely have Verlander or Scherzer pitching. Here comes that pesky "run support" argument again.

Author:  Bucky Chris [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

In regards to the Triple Crown, Trout's line (.300, 25 HR, 45 SB, 120 R) is more rare. People find the Triple Crown to be sexy, and it is, but it doesn't paint a full picture. It's only part of it, and when you look at the full picture, Trout is significantly better. Defense and base running DOES matter. A lot. If this was "Most Valuable Hitter..."


Trout would still win. His offensive WAR numbers are better too.

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Bucky Chris wrote:
In regards to the Triple Crown, Trout's line (.300, 25 HR, 45 SB, 120 R) is more rare. People find the Triple Crown to be sexy, and it is, but it doesn't paint a full picture. It's only part of it, and when you look at the full picture, Trout is significantly better. Defense and base running DOES matter. A lot. If this was "Most Valuable Hitter..."


Trout would still win. His offensive WAR numbers are better too.


Stolen bases don't matter very much at all. We can't use SABRmetrics to bash the idea of the running game and then turn on a dime and use it to prop up a player when it suits us, can we?

It's great to say the RBI doesn't paint a great picture because of batting order position. But Cabrera has scored nearly as many runs as the best lead-off man in the game (Trout).

Defense and base-running does matter. A little.

Author:  Hatchetman [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Trout is a better player period. I don't care who wins the MVP.

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Hatchetman wrote:
Trout is a better player period. I don't care who wins the MVP.


So, game on the line, man on second, you need a run, you're taking Trout over Cabrera?

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
You are not remembering that correctly and attributing things DS said to me.

On paper, I expected the Tigers to be better, nothing more. I make no apologies for that.

I dont think the defense is totally insignificant here because you have one guy who is a complete butcher and another guy who is a gold glover


I'm pretty sure you flat out said the Tigers had a better offense.

Correct, but I said going forward and in a one game scenario I would take the Tigers. You are painting it like I was denying math. I went to great lengths to frame my opinion.



JORR, Detroit's offense is better. They have better offensive players overall. Regardless of what has happened so far this season.

I think the Tiger offense is a little better (mainly due to Cabrera and Fielder) and I agree with DS that for a one game scenario, Most people would take the Tigers.



Okay, but for how long must the Sox outscore them for you to reconsider your opinion?

I think most people would take the Tigers for one game because they'd likely have Verlander or Scherzer pitching. Here comes that pesky "run support" argument again.

I have reconsidered. Certain times it looks like the Sox are better but both teams are incredibly streaky.

The offenses are close. The team that plays in a launching pad has 12 more runs than the team that plays in the pitchers park.


And my "for one game, Id take the tigers" is from THEN. Im not sure now....

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
In regards to the Triple Crown, Trout's line (.300, 25 HR, 45 SB, 120 R) is more rare. People find the Triple Crown to be sexy, and it is, but it doesn't paint a full picture. It's only part of it, and when you look at the full picture, Trout is significantly better. Defense and base running DOES matter. A lot. If this was "Most Valuable Hitter..."


Trout would still win. His offensive WAR numbers are better too.


Stolen bases don't matter very much at all. We can't use SABRmetrics to bash the idea of the running game and then turn on a dime and use it to prop up a player when it suits us, can we?

I believe you are misrepresenting the SABR take on stolen bases. SABR tells us that you need a 90% clip to make it worth running. Trout is at 92%

Author:  Hatchetman [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Trout is a better player period. I don't care who wins the MVP.


So, game on the line, man on second, you need a run, you're taking Trout over Cabrera?


you can't pick and choose your situation. lots of other situations you'd rather have trout on the field.

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
In regards to the Triple Crown, Trout's line (.300, 25 HR, 45 SB, 120 R) is more rare. People find the Triple Crown to be sexy, and it is, but it doesn't paint a full picture. It's only part of it, and when you look at the full picture, Trout is significantly better. Defense and base running DOES matter. A lot. If this was "Most Valuable Hitter..."


Trout would still win. His offensive WAR numbers are better too.


Stolen bases don't matter very much at all. We can't use SABRmetrics to bash the idea of the running game and then turn on a dime and use it to prop up a player when it suits us, can we?

I believe you are misrepresenting the SABR take on stolen bases. SABR tells us that you need a 90% clip to make it worth running. Trout is at 92%


I think it's less than 90%, about 75%. Obviously, Trout is an elite base stealer. But ultimately the value of those steals is reflected in his runs scored.

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Hatchetman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Trout is a better player period. I don't care who wins the MVP.


So, game on the line, man on second, you need a run, you're taking Trout over Cabrera?


you can't pick and choose your situation. lots of other situations you'd rather have trout on the field.


Fair enough. But I see this as similar to Dwight Evans and Jim Rice. Evans is a SABRmetric darling. He did a lot of things very well. There's a retro argument that he was superior to Jim Rice. I find such thinking utterly absurd. Nobody that played on their teams would possibly think such a thing, not even Dewey himself.

And now we have a similar type of argument in real time, although I would submit that both players in question are superior to those old Red Sox.

Author:  Hatchetman [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

I used to have a PC computer simulation game called Diamond Mind. The guy who created it was later hired by the Red Sox to run their statistical analysis. Tom Tippett. I think he still works there. Anyway, his simulation model is used in an online game

http://www.imaginesports.com/


I played about 6-7 seasons against some other hardcore baseball fans. It made me change my thoughts about a lot of things, particularly defense, which heretofore (actually thentofore) I undervalued.

Anyway, you can do all this statistical shit and construct what you believe is the best team possible and they still finish in last place.

Author:  Mr. Hernandez [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Hatchetman wrote:
Trout is a better player period. I don't care who wins the MVP.


Cabrera is better at the plate. Trout is better at the rest.

The triple crown is something that hasnt been done in my lifetime and is one hell of an accomplishment. As of now if Miguel gets the crown he should be mvp

Trout on the other hand is a rarity as well. Rookie mvp has been done what? Once ot twice in the last 40 yrs? Dude is a phenom and i hope he keeps up this play for many years. He is deserving of mvp too but damn its hard to go against Cabreras numbers

Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

He has 16 more Runs scored than Cabrera and Cabrera had a month long head start.

Since Trout came up: 122-91

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Hatchetman wrote:
I used to have a PC computer simulation game called Diamond Mind. The guy who created it was later hired by the Red Sox to run their statistical analysis. Tom Tippett. I think he still works there. Anyway, his simulation model is used in an online game

http://www.imaginesports.com/


I played about 6-7 seasons against some other hardcore baseball fans. It made me change my thoughts about a lot of things, particularly defense, which heretofore (actually thentofore) I undervalued.

Anyway, you can do all this statistical shit and construct what you believe is the best team possible and they still finish in last place.


I think in the "SABRmetric Era", the '05 White Sox caused some people to reevaluate the effects of elite defense, particularly in the outfield. Prior to that Bill James had been almost dismissive regarding defense on the outfield corners. Now, none of their three guys is considered an elite fielder over his career, but the Sox outfield defense in 2005 was unquestionably elite.

Author:  Rod [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

rogers park bryan wrote:
He has 16 more Runs scored than Cabrera and Cabrera had a month long head start.

Since Trout came up: 122-91


They've had about the same amount of at-bats. If you add up their runs scored and runs driven in and subtract the homers, who has produced more?

Author:  good dolphin [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
redskingreg wrote:
There are players that have had better seasons than Cabrera who did not win the triple crown.


And there are players that have had worse seasons than Cabrera who did win the MVP.

I look at it like this. If I've got a one-run lead with two outs and the bases loaded, I know which of those two I'd prefer to face.


Why limit it to that situation? If I had a choice of one of the two for any particular at bat at any point in the season I would pick Cabrera every single time.

Author:  good dolphin [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Mike Trout is the MVP

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
redskingreg wrote:
There are players that have had better seasons than Cabrera who did not win the triple crown.


And there are players that have had worse seasons than Cabrera who did win the MVP.

I look at it like this. If I've got a one-run lead with two outs and the bases loaded, I know which of those two I'd prefer to face.


Why limit it to that situation? If I had a choice of one of the two for any particular at bat at any point in the season I would pick Cabrera every single time.

Page 1 of 12 All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
https://www.phpbb.com/