http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/ang ... ar-says-so

Miguel Cabrera may be on his way to winning the first Triple Crown since 1967, but by using Wins Above Replacement to judge a player’s overall contribution to his team, Mike Trout has been by far the most valuable player in the MLB this season.

Essentially, the metric considers three areas in which a position player can contribute: hitting, defense and baserunning.

This season, Trout has 10.4 WAR compared with 6.8 for Cabrera. Trout has compiled that number in 21 fewer games than Cabrera.

Hitting

Trout and Cabrera are outstanding hitters; their averages and on-base percentages are very close. Cabrera’s big advantage is in his power, but Trout is no slouch there, either.
Trout Cabrera
BA .323 .331
OBP .394 .396
ISO* .231 .283
RBI 78 133
*Isolated power (Extra bases per AB)

One stat people consider when comparing the two is Cabrera’s gaudy RBI total compared to Trout, but that’s not entirely fair because Trout is a lead-off hitter while Cabrera bats third.

Trout has done nearly as well as Cabrera with RISP, batting .327 compared to Cabrera’s .355, he’s just had fewer opportunities to knock in runs. He also doesn’t have the benefit of Prince Fielder batting behind him.

Defense

If baseball were simply a hitting contest, Cabrera would be the victor. But players can make a huge impact on the other side of the ball, as well as on the base paths.

Most Defensive Runs Saved, 2012
Brendan Ryan 28
Mike Trout 27
Darwin Barney 26
Michael Bourn 24
*Miguel Cabrera: -4

The defensive portion of WAR is calculated from Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) statistic, which is formulated from video review. Over 80 types of good fielding plays and defensive misplays are considered (not just errors) and a player is credited for making plays the average fielder makes. Likewise, they are debited for not making plays an average fielder makes.

The gap between Trout and Cabrera’s fielding ability alone is worth roughly three wins per season to a team.

Baserunning

It’s well accepted that Mike Trout is an outstanding baserunner, while Miguel Cabrera leaves much to be desired.

Most Runs Added Baserunning, '12
Mike Trout 12
Michael Bourn 10
Tony Campana 9
Ben Revere 8
Desmond Jennings 8
*Miguel Cabrera: -4

Putting some numbers behind it, Baseball-Reference.com estimates that Trout has produced an additional 12 runs for the Angels this season with his feet alone. This includes his ability to steal bases without being caught (league-leading 46 stolen bases to four caught stealing), to avoid double plays (just seven this season) and to go first to third on singles and score easily from second.

Cabrera, on the other hand, has cost the Tigers about four runs with his feet. A large portion of that can be attributed to Cabrera’s league-leading 28 GIDPs (grounded into double play).
1st->3rd 2nd->Home GIDP
Trout 63% 68% 9%
Cabrera 29% 63% 20%

At right are Trout’s and Cabrera’s percentages of advancing when given an opportunity. The GIDP % is per opportunity.

If you win the triple crown and your team is in contention you are the MVP. Those stats and figures are nice, but let's not get crazy with them.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

There are players that have had better seasons than Cabrera who did not win the triple crown. Triple crown does not equal MVP.

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-- source

Agreed. Its Trout.

If Adam Dunn has a big week there is no triple crown....but Trout still set the world on fire all year.

Can't argue with either guy getting it..would give the nod to Cabrera if they win the division and he stays hot..but I think the Sox win the central..Detroit stays home..so Trout mvp.

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The Vet would get the nod....and the Roikie might be under some suspicion.

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

And there are players that have had worse seasons than Cabrera who did win the MVP.

I look at it like this. If I've got a one-run lead with two outs and the bases loaded, I know which of those two I'd prefer to face.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

But if you had a 2 run lead in the 9th, I know which one would get replaced defensively.


The Triple Crown should have no bearing on it, imo. If Dunn ends up with one more homerun that wont change Cabrera's season for me.


I think Trout helped his team win more games than Cabrera

I'm not sure who helped his team win more. But you and I both know the defense of these guys is insignificant and the MVP certainly isn't hinging on that.

I remember a previous conversation we had where you insisted along with Darkside that the Tigers offense was better than that of the White Sox. That was in spite of the fact that the Sox had outscored the Tigers. They Sox have continued to outscore Detroit and will almost certainly finish the season with more runs scored. It seemed as if you and Darkside simply wanted to insist that Detroit has a better offense "because everyone thinks so" or "just because they do." A better argument would be to compare the two home parks of the teams. I might make the same argument in Cabrera's favor as his numbers have almost certainly been held down by playing half his games in a vast ballpark.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You are not remembering that correctly and attributing things DS said to me.

On paper, I expected the Tigers to be better, nothing more. I make no apologies for that.

I dont think the defense is totally insignificant here because you have one guy who is a complete butcher and another guy who is a gold glover

I'm pretty sure you flat out said the Tigers had a better offense. If I weren't one of your mults I'd go look it up and bump the thread.

Anyway, I never said that the Sox offense was better. I think they're fairly similar and, in fact, would probably give the edge to Detroit myself based on the ballparks. I heard bernstein the other day (apologies to OKC and cpguy) say that he figured park factor had something to do with Fielder's "less than great" season. he then looked up Fielder's splits and upon seeing that he hit more homers at home, leapt to a bad conclusion- that the park wasn't a factor at all. Rather than wondering if Fielder is just a much better player at home, which is a real possibility.

I would agree that elite defense, particularly at positions up the middle, can be important.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

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Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Correct, but I said going forward and in a one game scenario I would take the Tigers. You are painting it like I was denying math. I went to great lengths to frame my opinion.



JORR, Detroit's offense is better. They have better offensive players overall. Regardless of what has happened so far this season.

I think the Tiger offense is a little better (mainly due to Cabrera and Fielder) and I agree with DS that for a one game scenario, Most people would take the Tigers.

Okay, but for how long must the Sox outscore them for you to reconsider your opinion?

I think most people would take the Tigers for one game because they'd likely have Verlander or Scherzer pitching. Here comes that pesky "run support" argument again.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

In regards to the Triple Crown, Trout's line (.300, 25 HR, 45 SB, 120 R) is more rare. People find the Triple Crown to be sexy, and it is, but it doesn't paint a full picture. It's only part of it, and when you look at the full picture, Trout is significantly better. Defense and base running DOES matter. A lot. If this was "Most Valuable Hitter..."


Trout would still win. His offensive WAR numbers are better too.

Stolen bases don't matter very much at all. We can't use SABRmetrics to bash the idea of the running game and then turn on a dime and use it to prop up a player when it suits us, can we?

It's great to say the RBI doesn't paint a great picture because of batting order position. But Cabrera has scored nearly as many runs as the best lead-off man in the game (Trout).

Defense and base-running does matter. A little.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Trout is a better player period. I don't care who wins the MVP.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

So, game on the line, man on second, you need a run, you're taking Trout over Cabrera?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I have reconsidered. Certain times it looks like the Sox are better but both teams are incredibly streaky.

The offenses are close. The team that plays in a launching pad has 12 more runs than the team that plays in the pitchers park.


And my "for one game, Id take the tigers" is from THEN. Im not sure now....

I believe you are misrepresenting the SABR take on stolen bases. SABR tells us that you need a 90% clip to make it worth running. Trout is at 92%

you can't pick and choose your situation. lots of other situations you'd rather have trout on the field.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

I think it's less than 90%, about 75%. Obviously, Trout is an elite base stealer. But ultimately the value of those steals is reflected in his runs scored.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Fair enough. But I see this as similar to Dwight Evans and Jim Rice. Evans is a SABRmetric darling. He did a lot of things very well. There's a retro argument that he was superior to Jim Rice. I find such thinking utterly absurd. Nobody that played on their teams would possibly think such a thing, not even Dewey himself.

And now we have a similar type of argument in real time, although I would submit that both players in question are superior to those old Red Sox.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I used to have a PC computer simulation game called Diamond Mind. The guy who created it was later hired by the Red Sox to run their statistical analysis. Tom Tippett. I think he still works there. Anyway, his simulation model is used in an online game

http://www.imaginesports.com/


I played about 6-7 seasons against some other hardcore baseball fans. It made me change my thoughts about a lot of things, particularly defense, which heretofore (actually thentofore) I undervalued.

Anyway, you can do all this statistical shit and construct what you believe is the best team possible and they still finish in last place.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Cabrera is better at the plate. Trout is better at the rest.

The triple crown is something that hasnt been done in my lifetime and is one hell of an accomplishment. As of now if Miguel gets the crown he should be mvp

Trout on the other hand is a rarity as well. Rookie mvp has been done what? Once ot twice in the last 40 yrs? Dude is a phenom and i hope he keeps up this play for many years. He is deserving of mvp too but damn its hard to go against Cabreras numbers

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"You can kill the revolutionary, but you can't kill the revolution."

He has 16 more Runs scored than Cabrera and Cabrera had a month long head start.

Since Trout came up: 122-91

I think in the "SABRmetric Era", the '05 White Sox caused some people to reevaluate the effects of elite defense, particularly in the outfield. Prior to that Bill James had been almost dismissive regarding defense on the outfield corners. Now, none of their three guys is considered an elite fielder over his career, but the Sox outfield defense in 2005 was unquestionably elite.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

They've had about the same amount of at-bats. If you add up their runs scored and runs driven in and subtract the homers, who has produced more?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Why limit it to that situation? If I had a choice of one of the two for any particular at bat at any point in the season I would pick Cabrera every single time.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Why limit it to that situation? If I had a choice of one of the two for any particular at bat at any point in the season I would pick Cabrera every single time.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.