OK, here we go. Let’s talk WAR or WARP, Wins Above Replacement or Wins Above Replacement Player. The ultimate absurdity.

I have a question for the WAR guys. Ever heard of Hurricane Hazle?

That would be Bob Hazle, a then 26-year-old outfielder the Milwaukee Braves called up from Triple A in the summer of 1957. In 41 games he hit .403 and compiled an OPS of 1.126. As a replacement player. Where’s the calculation on him? Where’s his WASP, Wins Above Starting Player? If the entire premise of WAR or WARP is to calculate the superior performance of an existing player over a mythical replacement player, then what happens when the replacement player far outperforms the regular he replaced? What’s his WASP?

Now I’m guessing the WAR guys have heard of Willie McCovey. Two years after Hurricane Hazle came out of Triple A to help Milwaukee win a pennant and World Series, McCovey emerged from Triple A to put together a pretty nice two-month stint for the Giants. He had two triples and two singles off future Hall of Famer Robin Roberts in his first big league game. In 52 games he hit .354 with 13 homers and 38 ribbies. He had an OPS of 1.085. He was Rookie of the Year. Pretty good for a “replacement player,” wouldn’t you say? Wonder what his WASP was?

The WAR people also have the audacity to calculate post-mortem WARs for players of bygone eras. Ty Cobb, for example. I’m just wondering how they come up with a WAR of 9.8 for Ty Cobb in 1909 when there were no farm systems, when players came to the big leagues after being purchased from independent minor league teams and thus there was no mechanism to identify just who the next “replacement player” was or where he would come from? Ty Cobb was pretty good. We don’t need a WAR number to tell us.

I’ll tell you this. If, on any given occasion, there are 35,000-plus people in Fenway Park, no more than 2,000 of them have the slightest interest in WAR. It’s probably closer to 500.

WAR is of interest only to people to whom WAR is of interest.

Oh, boy. I can hear those computers firing up right now. Just leave out the cuss words, OK?

The future holds the possibility to be great or terrible, and since it has not yet occurred it remains simultaneously both.

The future holds the possibility to be great or terrible, and since it has not yet occurred it remains simultaneously both.

Hasn't SABRmetrics basically been proven to be a myth?

I've never liked WAR because I don't see the sense in comparing players to an arbitrary baseline. Maybe that makes me an idiot, I don't know. I just prefer comparing players to other players.

Uh...no

My mistake.

Weird thing to say. SABRmetrics is just a term for objective analysis of baseball through advanced statistics.

I dont see how something like that could even be a myth.

Not as good as Dan Shaughnessy's Poor Places or Jackie McMullen's Reservations.

Some would say Ryan's screed is pure pot kettle black.

I've never liked WAR because I don't see the sense in comparing players to an arbitrary baseline. Maybe that makes me an idiot, I don't know. I just prefer comparing players to other players.