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| SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=86815 |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat May 10, 2014 1:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) |
Joe Sheehan wrote: With MLB defenses being as good as they are, strikeouts are not much worse in value than the average ball in play. Statistically speaking, the payoff for having a "two-strike approach" and simply getting the bat on the ball when behind in the count just isn't worth the investment. If the BABIP on all balls in play is around .300, how can this be true? |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Sat May 10, 2014 3:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) |
he would say being mr slappy lowers babip way down and only marginally reduces chance of striking out. I mean why not just be mr slappy all the time if its such a good idea. how's that work for darwin barney? |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Sat May 10, 2014 3:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) |
That lucky son of a bitch Miguel Cabrera had a .346 Bapip coming into this year Bapip is useful just to check if there's an extreme situation above 400 below 220 |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Sat May 10, 2014 3:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) |
supports sheehan's argument. if you crush the ball your babip will be higher. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sun May 11, 2014 10:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) |
Hatchetman wrote: supports sheehan's argument. if you crush the ball your babip will be higher. I'm not sure that's true. I think BABIP is very high on bunt attempts. Of course, it probably wouldn't be if every guy bunted every time. But yeah, a guy who hits a lot of hard line shots is going to have a higher BABIP than a guy who pops up a lot. Anyway, unless the percentage of safe on dropped third strikes is higher than 30%, Sheehan is just wrong. It's a case of simply spouting one SABRmetric argument while ignoring another. Very bernsteinian. No wonder li'l danny likes him so much. |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Sun May 11, 2014 10:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) |
I think he made a flippant comment which may or may not be true. He should back it up with evidence. However, I could easily believe it IS true. Do you want Abreu gripping and ripping 0-2 or do you want him slapping a grounder to second? |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sun May 11, 2014 10:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) |
Hatchetman wrote: I think he made a flippant comment which may or may not be true. He should back it up with evidence. However, I could easily believe it IS true. Do you want Abreu gripping and ripping 0-2 or do you want him slapping a grounder to second? I think that's situational. I'm sure you would agree with that. Anyway, I don't really think that your elite power hitters are the issue here. Those types have always struck out at relatively high rates. The fact that they didn't is what made guys like Williams and DiMaggio so special. The fact that pretty much nobody has a two-strike approach that is a big factor in the huge strikeout totals we're seeing currently. Wouldn't you like to see Beckham or Alexei choke up and put the ball in play rather than flailing away at a two strike pitch? |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Sun May 11, 2014 6:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) |
I don't know the answer to that question. If there's a man on third, one out, yes, just slap the ball. Otherwise (??) I dunno. |
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| Author: | lipidquadcab [ Sun May 11, 2014 6:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: SABRmetric confusion (Can't Joe Sheehan do math?) |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Joe Sheehan wrote: With MLB defenses being as good as they are, strikeouts are not much worse in value than the average ball in play. Statistically speaking, the payoff for having a "two-strike approach" and simply getting the bat on the ball when behind in the count just isn't worth the investment. If the BABIP on all balls in play is around .300, how can this be true? Matt Carpenter earned himself a shiny new contract worth a lot of paper, due in large part to his two-strike approach... |
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