bigfan wrote:
These estimates are usually very conservative for players and teams.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
It is blocked at work.
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| PECOTA TIME! https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=91873 |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | PECOTA TIME! |
Always love this. PECOTA White Sox WINS Projections 78 PECOTA Cubs WINS Projections 82 |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
bigfan wrote: Always love this. PECOTA White Sox WINS Projections 78 PECOTA Cubs WINS Projections 82 What does he have the Crew at if you don't mind? |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
I always love to look at the player numbers embedded. Prolly have Beckham with 500 ABs and Avi Garcia with 150. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Brewers 79 WINS |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
These estimates are usually very conservative for players and teams. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
bigfan wrote: These estimates are usually very conservative for players and teams. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ It is blocked at work.
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| Author: | Kirkwood [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
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| Author: | Kirkwood [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
 Baez! Woof |
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| Author: | IMU [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
I hope those are conservative, BA wise. Coghlan, Soler, Fowler, and Rizzo should all hit for higher averages, and probably have a higher OBP as well. |
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| Author: | Apologist [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: *massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah*massive wall of text* blahblahblahblahblah Boilermaker Rick wrote: 2005
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| Author: | Rod [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
I've never devoted "a massive amount of text" to PECOTA. It's about as significant as the player it's named for. |
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| Author: | City of Fools [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
as long as we're giving opinions, I don't see Soler staying healthy enough to get 85%, nor do I expect even those numbers they projected for Baez at this point. I also don't see LaStella getting major playing time once Bryant comes up and I expect Bryant to have Rizzo like numbers his first season... |
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| Author: | Kirkwood [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I've never devoted "a massive amount of text" to PECOTA. It's about as significant as the player it's named for. Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP's proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA: 1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors; 2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level; 3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time. 
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| Author: | Big Chicagoan [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
City of Fools wrote: as long as we're giving opinions, I don't see Soler staying healthy enough to get 85%, nor do I expect even those numbers they projected for Baez at this point. I also don't see LaStella getting major playing time once Bryant comes up and I expect Bryant to have Rizzo like numbers his first season... La Stella will be playing 2B most of the year. |
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| Author: | conns7901 [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
What were last years projections? |
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| Author: | Kirkwood [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
 643 plate appearances by Eaton! Faaaaaaade |
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| Author: | Kirkwood [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
  Cubs pitchers...no good! Shark carrying the Cubs stink. |
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| Author: | Apologist [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Hey Kirkwood... as long as your behind the paywall, can you go post those in teh Cardinal thread? |
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| Author: | IMU [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Hendricks as a spot starter? These PECOTA numbers are bad. You should cancel your BP subscription on principle. |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
no obvious glaring mistakes in the Sox calculations. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Hatchetman wrote: no obvious glaring mistakes in the Sox calculations. You expect Samardzija to have a 4+ ERA? Abreu to have less than 100 RBI? How can they even predict RBI? Everyone knows that's just luck. |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Hatchetman wrote: no obvious glaring mistakes in the Sox calculations. You expect Samardzija to have a 4+ ERA? Abreu to have less than 100 RBI? How can they even predict RBI? Everyone knows that's just luck. I didn't even look at RBI. This isn't 1977. Smarj aint exactly Greg Maddux in his prime. I dunno. |
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| Author: | Minooka Meatball [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
conns7901 wrote: What were last years projections? 2014: (from CBSSports dot com) For the full projections, hop on over to Baseball Prospectus. Keep in mind -- again, other than the Dodgers -- that these things tend to be conservative. The playoff teams, per PECOTA: AL East champ: Red Sox AL Central champ: Tigers AL West champ: Athletics AL wild cards: Rays, Angels NL East champ: Nationals NL Central champ: Cardinals NL West champ: Dodgers NL wild cards: Giants, Braves |
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| Author: | IMU [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
 That AL, though. Red Sox and Rays, baby!
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
when they are incorrect we will hear that the system analyzes what has happened rather than accurately projecting what will happen Isn't this the group that has thrown up its hands and said it cannot accurately assess the white sox? |
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| Author: | redskingreg [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Look at that Real Ass Player in CF for the Cubs. |
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| Author: | badrogue17 [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
good dolphin wrote: when they are incorrect we will hear that the system analyzes what has happened rather than accurately projecting what will happen Isn't this the group that has thrown up its hands and said it cannot accurately assess the white sox? No thats White Sox fans. |
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| Author: | Hussra [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Red Sox and Rays? Rays have given up their best pitchers and Joe Madden's plotting goofy pranks up in Wrigleyville. Ortiz turns 40 this year. How good are those PEDs? Tigers are done. They missed their World Series win window and will now miss the playoffs until Pizza-Pizza dude dies or sells the team. Rangers had a lot of injuries last season and made some smart trades. They should be back in the playoffs. Oakland have any pitching or hitting? |
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| Author: | Apologist [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: PECOTA TIME! |
Kirkwood wrote: 643 plate appearances by Eaton! Faaaaaaade You're better off fading John Danks at 10-12 with a 4.48era.I think most Sox fans would be thrilled if he was able to do that. Is that accurate enough for you, badrogue? 
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