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Chicago
January 28, 2015 6:00 pm ETJon Lester did well this offseason by signing with the playoff-minded Cubbies for $155M. (USATSI)The evaluations are in after one of the most active winters ever.Here are 20 winter winners -- and a few losers, too.Normally, it is preferable to wait until all the top free agents are signed before filling out our winter scorecard. But James Shields, ace pitcher without a home, is simply taking too long.Whatever happens with Shields, it's been quite a winter, with two big-time aces signing nine-figure deals, two mega hitting stars moving from the West Coast to Boston and other many more impact players changing hands via trade than anyone could have ever imagined.So here goes, all our offseason winners and losers ...
Winners
1. White Sox. Rarely has a team so successfully and systematically answered so many of its major questions. They needed a righty starter. Check. They needed a closer. Check. They needed a No. 2 hitter, a cleanup hitter and lefty set-up man. Check, check and check. With Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke they scored a grand slam plus. They should compete in the improving, difficult AL Central, thanks to a reasonable outlay of slightly less than what the Cubs spent on Jon Lester. Only tiny quibble: $15 million and three years seem like a lot for Duke.
2. Cubs. Joe Maddon was the perfect guy for the lovable Cubbies, and he's worth every penny of that $25 million. Lester looks pretty reasonable at $155 million (especially after Max Scherzer's deal for $55 million more), and that signing showed how serious the Cubs finally are about trying to end their 106-year losing streak. Dexter Fowler brings speed, Miguel Montero experience and Jason Hammel an under-the-radar rotation piece. Best job in baseball, outside Chicago's South Side.
3. Max Scherzer/Scott Boras. Some thought Boras would be stuck with an under-market deal for Scherzer since it took into January, but despite a similar ledger as Lester save for Lester's eye-popping 0.43 World Series ERA -- they have identical 3.58 ERAs and were both 30 when they signed -- Scherzer wound up getting 35.4 percent more money. And it's not like he has to go to a second-division team, either. If the Nats weren't the World Series favorite going into the winter, they have to be now. While there are deferrals that bring the value down to $191 million according to the union, and no no-trade clause (who needs one when you have $10 million in deferrals, as the Nats pointed out?), this deal beat the projections of everyone -- and even the alleged $200-million asking price. And since he plans to move to Florida to be near the Nats in spring training and out-of-state residents aren't taxed in DC he may even make up the $19 million gap.
4. Padres. Say this for new GM A.J. Preller and his group: they are nothing if not aggressive. Who would have thought they'd add not one but three offensively impactful outfielders? It helped that the old regime left a nice prospect stash, but Preller and Co. established themselves as players and made the team that much more balanced and interesting. They even got $32 million back in the Matt Kemp deal, which is allowing them to continue to look to add. Took good chances with Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson and beefed up the pen with big arms in Shawn Kelly and Brandon Maurer. They kept four of their top prospects (Trea Turner went as the player to be named in the Wil Myers trade, as did Max Fried in the Justin Upton deal). One worry: giving up the lefty Fried and three others for one year of Upton is a bit of a risk.
5. Red Sox. They addressed their offensive woes in a big way by adding Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez in short order, imported 60 percent of a rotation within 48 hours (Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson) and put themselves in position to possibly do the last-to-first thing for the second time in three years. They also held onto Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart, Henry Owens and the rest of their fine prospect stash, putting them in position to deal later for Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto or someone of that stature.
6. Billy Butler/Legacy. Hard to second guess Billy Beane and Co. but a DH with nine home runs doesn't normally get a $30-million, three-year deal.
7. Marlins. They got off to a big start with the record $325-million deal for franchise player Giancarlo Stanton (with his out after $107 million and six years) and kept going, adding speedy Dee Gordon, versatile Martin Prado (a poor man's Ben Zobrist), powerful Michael Morse, talented Mat Latos, ageless Ichiro and (most likely) dependable Dan Haren, who still prefers to pitch on the West Coast. On the cusp. (And if they pull a surprise and add Shields, even a real threat). Only disappointments: not locking up Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich.
8. Blue Jays. They still haven't filled their closing job or that second-base issue they've seemingly had for eons, either. But what they did do was spectacular. They lured back Canadian Russell Martin, winning him from the Cubs, Dodgers, incumbent Pirates and others, to catch, and in one of the surprises of a spectacular winter, added third base star Josh Donaldson to give Toronto one of the best lineup tops in baseball, if not the very best one.
9. Brandon McCarthy/Ryan Ware. He turned a brilliant second half into the Yankees into a windfall with the first-division Dodgers and bosses that love him (new Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi had him in Oakland, and all the Dodgers people have to love McCarthy's sabermetric bent). On talent he's probably worth $12 million a year, even if he was inexplicably atrocious in the NL West with the D-Backs last year. The four years is a coup, though.
10. Jon Lester/Aces. Lester never was looking to break the bank but he did fine and got to go to one of baseball's best stories, if not yet one of its better teams. He isn't $55 million worse than Scherzer on the record, but this is still a decent deal (and the $30-million signing bonus doesn't hurt, either). And Aces proprietors, the Levinson brothers, while they are losing players to other agents, well, they managed to stay ahead of whoever is still investigating them for their link to Biogenesis (and before that Kirk Radomski).
11. Jed Lowrie/CAA. There are questions about his durability and his defense, but he leveraged the lack of viable shortstops into a $23-million three-year deal. What's more, he gets to play for fellow Stanford man A.J. Hinch, the new Houston manager, the Astros are much improved and he also gets to go home to Houston.
12. Twins. They got Ervin Santana for $55 million over four years after missing out last year, and they extended Phil Hughes, their best move from a year ago. Good calls. The Torii Hunter return is a nice story, too. Now for the bad news: Everyone else in the division looks better, except maybe Detroit and Kansas City, which were already at the top.
13. Top relievers. Closer David Robertson managed to get a $46-million, four-year deal despite having a draft choice attached, and non-closer Andrew Miller got $35 million for four years from the Yankees, and both pitchers reportedly had even bigger offers elsewhere.
14. Nick Markakis/TWC. His $44-million, four-year deal seemed about right -- that is until folks saw him at Adam Jones' wedding with a neck brace on. The neck surgery was no surprise to the Braves, who believe it isn't a major worry. Nonetheless, this is the kind of thing that normally hurts one's free agency.
15. Mariners. With all their pitching and prospects, they look like a real threat now. Didn't get the steal the Orioles ($8 million) did on Nelson Cruz, but $57 million for four years seems pretty reasonable.
16. Rangers. They needed rotation depth so Yovani Gallardo, and to a lesser degree Ross Detwiler and Anthony Ranaudo, work. Their real plus should be getting back the record infirmed list. Should contend again.
17. Alex Rios. He's a fine all-around player but that zero home run total in the second half year couldn't have been a free-agency plus. Still, he managed to get $11M from the AL champion Royals.
18. Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond, Nats. Both players look wise to have rebuffed extension tries by their teams, especially Zimmermann, who was reported to have been offered something in the $85-million range and saw Scherzer get $210 million from his own team. Desmond also looks prescient to have taken an offer said to have been for close to $100 million, especially with the paucity of top-flight shortstops.
19. Diamondbacks. Their rotation could be all-time bad, especially until Patrick Corbin comes back and Josh Collmenter or Jeremy Hellickson, and it isn't quite clear what they are thinking at catcher. But they had the right idea, loading up for the future, ridding themselves of Montero's contract and taking a chance on Tomas. So they get a gold star for the plan, anyway.
20. Cuban hitters. Yasmany Toimas reeled in a $68.5-million, six-year deal with the Diamondbacks. Big time power plays, as Cuban hitters are going to keep raking it in until proven otherwise.
Losers
1. Rays. Not only did they lose beloved manager Maddon, resourceful GM Andrew Friedman, ultra versatile infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist and young power-hitting Myers, they continued to make no progress in their efforts to get out of the The Trop, one of the two worst baseball stadiums still extant. What's more, at a St. Petersburg city hearing local politicos ripped some Rays decision makers, suggesting perceived haughtiness didn't help their cause while rejecting the team's request just to look around elsewhere in Tampa/St. Pete. The other sports franchises in Tampa are locally owned. Maybe it's time for the Rays to follow suit.
2. A's. Beane is one of the smartest people in baseball, and that is well established, and he's had winters before that looked like he was rebuilding, and that didn't prevent the A's from contending. And nobody should be shocked if Oakland makes it five 90-plus seasons in seven. On the surface, the losses of Donaldson, Samardzija, Lester, Lowrie and Hammel would seem to weaken the roster considerably. But, with their history of magic, who can be sure?
3. Orioles. They lost Cruz and Markakis, didn't quite sign Nori Aoki, Colby Rasmus, Ichiro or any of the obvious replacement possibilities, and still have excellent GM Dan Duquette, who wanted to go to the rival Jays as team president but couldn't when Peter Angelos reportedly asked for their unreasonably high first-round duo of pitcher Jeff Hoffman and catcher Max Pentecost. It's a plus they still have the Executive of the Year Duquette, of course, but it may not be so comfortable around the Orioles offices since it's well-known he was ready to go to Toronto. Big plus: signing J.J. Hardy weeks before free agency to a reasonable three-year, $40-million deal.
4. Phillies. They were rejected by A.J. Burnett, who bolted Philly to return to the cross-state Pirates for much less money (about a third less, $8.5 million compared to $12.75 million), and are seemingly just getting started in their rebuilding task. GM Ruben Amaro suggested recently he expects to keep Cole Hamels, and let's hope that changes, as Philly's rebuild depends on the type of haul they can get for one of baseball's best pitchers. They are also for the moment stuck with Jonathan Papelbon and Ryan Howard.
5. Troy Tulowitzki. He loves Denver, but he has to be frustrated by the team's continuing difficulty to win in thin air. It's nice that he has such a great relationship with the Rockies owner Dick Monfort but it appears he will have to stay, as the right match or mindset never materialized. If he wants to be traded, he is going to have to come out and say so. No doubt, it's a tough spot for a franchise icon. But so is playing for an also-ran year after year.
6. Jonathan Papelbon. One of the better relievers in recent memory continues to be beaten up publicly (and behind the scenes) as someone who's unwanted despite great stats. Some of it has to do with velocity that plummeted to 91 mph from 95 last year but some of it is that quirky personality of his. The $50-million deal (plus vesting option) was not one of Philly's better ideas.
7. Mets. Michael Cuddyer was a nice add but the Mets continue to be ultra-conservative on the trading front, especially compared with some of the teams with new GMs. Wilmer Flores is going to be a nice utility player but it's questionable whether he's a starting shortstop. If the Mets are as good as they think they are, they should have found a way to trade for Ian Desmond, Tulowitzki or someone else of that ilk.
8. Brewers. They did get good prospect value back for Gallardo, but the rotation looks thin now, and heavily dependent on kids Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson. And now they are flirting with Jonathan Papelbon, which probably isn't a great idea.
9. Colby Rasmus. Here's a guy who has speed and defense and can play center field and had to settle for $8 million at age 28. Ability to fit into a clubhouse remains a question, but Houston, where his old friend Jeff Luhnow is GM, may be the right spot for him.
Jury's Out
1. Tigers. They did seem to have interest in bringing back Scherzer, and it has to be a disappointment to owner Mike Ilitch, who badly seeks his first championship. David Price says he's open to listen, and while things got better for him in Detroit by the end, he's known to have had an uneasy transition from Tampa. Yoenis Cespedes lengthens the dangerous lineup with Torii Hunter gone and Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon provide depth to a weakened rotation that also lost Porcello.2. Giants. This isn't their year, anyway (remember they win every other year) but the loss of Sandoval definitely stings. They brought back Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong, imported Casey McGehee to replace Sandoval and added Nori Aoki late on a very reasonable $4.7-million, one-year deal, so they recovered quite nicely.3. Yankees. The Yankees did what they could with what little they spent, but they left themselves without a surefire ace (unless Masahiro Tanaka is fully healthy) and but there are serious questions at shortstop and second base, where there's very good defense at both spots but plenty of youth and offensive concern.4. Dodgers. Their defense and clubhouse should be much improved, and those are no small things. Howie Kendrick and Rollins should go a ways toward making up for the losses of Kemp, Ramirez and Gordon. These guys are smart, no question about that, but I've got to wonder: Is McCarthy worth $38 million more than Haren?5. Braves. There's no question they stepped out of the stalking role in the NL East and look like an also-ran for 2015, and the $44 million on Markakis will only be well spent if he makes a speedy recovery. But Shelby Miller was a nice return for Jason Heyward and Fried-plus is fine work for Upton. I get it more than most, it seems.
TBD
1. James Shields. The rumor of a $110-million, five-year offer most likely was nothing more than that at this point. Perhaps agent Page Odle still pulls a nine-figure rabbit out of his hat, but more likely now is a deal north of Santana's $55 million but maybe not as far north as we figured. One issue he could be running into could be the huge free-agent pitching class for next year, which includes Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister, Samardzija and many other good ones. Shields is a world-class innings eater, but he ran out of steam in the postseason, and perhaps that hurt him.OK,
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