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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 1:03 am 
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For those of you not in the know, I, Mr. Fucking Pickles, am a fantasy football guru. I play around 4 public leagues and 2 private leagues a year and I usually win at least 2 championships every year. One banner fucking year I won all 6.

That being said, Iam here to help the unwashed masses in their personal pursuit to won the gold. I will offer help, and worthwhile advice in this column when I have time, I hope to update it a couple times a week during the season.

First things first.

Your first round pick.

You want some rock solid advice on your first round pick so you don't waste it? Fuck the running back position, draft the quarterback. Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady will put up better numbers than any running back you will draft in the first round, and they are consistant. You can get a running back later in the draft, you can get one in the second round if you feels you have to, but take the QB first.

You have the first pick in the draft? Take Aaron Rodgers, fuck Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson. Those guys could hit or miss, Rodgers will be solid throughout the year, game after game.

Don't over-value the running back, Darren McFadden and Arian Foster were late round picks last year, you can always find RB gems, but a rock solid steady number producer, those are the guys you want on your team.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 3:40 am 
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There's definitely a lot of questions with 1st round RBs this year but to reach for a QB in round 1 is going to cause you to scramble later on. Rodgers in round 1 is a sound pick but even that comes with questions. Don't forget he had 2 concussions last season. Michael Vick is the best QB IF you can guarantee him playing close to 16 games this year. He might still be the best QB if you get 10 games and then average in your second QB.

I think the key is getting value with each pick relative to the draft spot. Taking Brady or Manning in the 2nd round is a stretch when their ADP shows that they are getting taken in the 3rd-4th. I'd much rather take a premium WR in round 2 and wait for Manning or Brady in round 3. If they are taken, I wait to round 4 looking for Rivers. Obviously, you adjust your strategy based on the settings of the league and possibly if you understand how your opponents draft. But if QBs were flying off the board I'd be comfortable stockpiling premium position players and then waiting for QBs. In terms of RBs, I understand that there are questions with a lot of the 1st and 2nd running backs but there are more questions with the 5th, 6th, and 7th round RBs.

Keep in mind that this is coming from a guy who drafted Rodgers on all 4 teams last year in the 1st round. My strategy was to take Rodgers and Roethlisburger late, stock up on 2 premium WRs, and take a bunch of secondary RBs and play the matchups. I am unsure what strategy I am going to take this year since I haven't all the projections yet. But I do know that I am going get value at each spot and be flexible with how the draft is taking place.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 3:45 am 
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Pickles just got outshined on his own shit

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:54 am 
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FavreFan wrote:
Pickles just got outshined on his own shit


Bahhhh- not really.

I just crunched some numbers based on last year's results. Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees averaged 280 pts. 1st round RBs averged 195. While I somewhat expected that, there is a pretty big range of performance of later tier QBs. Still don't think I'd take Brees, Manning, or Brady in the 1st round but I understand the strategy.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:09 pm 
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DAC wrote:
There's definitely a lot of questions with 1st round RBs this year but to reach for a QB in round 1 is going to cause you to scramble later on. Rodgers in round 1 is a sound pick but even that comes with questions. Don't forget he had 2 concussions last season. Michael Vick is the best QB IF you can guarantee him playing close to 16 games this year. He might still be the best QB if you get 10 games and then average in your second QB.

I think the key is getting value with each pick relative to the draft spot. Taking Brady or Manning in the 2nd round is a stretch when their ADP shows that they are getting taken in the 3rd-4th. I'd much rather take a premium WR in round 2 and wait for Manning or Brady in round 3. If they are taken, I wait to round 4 looking for Rivers. Obviously, you adjust your strategy based on the settings of the league and possibly if you understand how your opponents draft. But if QBs were flying off the board I'd be comfortable stockpiling premium position players and then waiting for QBs. In terms of RBs, I understand that there are questions with a lot of the 1st and 2nd running backs but there are more questions with the 5th, 6th, and 7th round RBs.

Keep in mind that this is coming from a guy who drafted Rodgers on all 4 teams last year in the 1st round. My strategy was to take Rodgers and Roethlisburger late, stock up on 2 premium WRs, and take a bunch of secondary RBs and play the matchups. I am unsure what strategy I am going to take this year since I haven't all the projections yet. But I do know that I am going get value at each spot and be flexible with how the draft is taking place.



Rodgers is rock solid every year. A premium RB would be a total waste in the first round when you could take someone, like say James Starks, GB's starter late in the draft and get first round value.

Vick is the popular choice to be the first QB taken, and thats absurd. Vick can produce Madden like numbers, but to count on him playing all 16 games would be cutting your own throat with a Bic pen. Vick is not even in my top 5 and barely in my top ten.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:11 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Pickles just got outshined on his own shit


Hardly ass fuckface, you can keep dreaming, I will continue to shit all over you.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:12 pm 
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Fuck you for staying away!

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:14 pm 
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DAC wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pickles just got outshined on his own shit


Bahhhh- not really.

I just crunched some numbers based on last year's results. Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees averaged 280 pts. 1st round RBs averged 195. While I somewhat expected that, there is a pretty big range of performance of later tier QBs. Still don't think I'd take Brees, Manning, or Brady in the 1st round but I understand the strategy.


Look at the top 6 QB's, or the elite QB's. Then look at the serious drop off in point production at the next tier of QB. Do the same comparison to all other positions. An elite QB is much, much harder to come by than other positions and should not be overlooked.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:16 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
Fuck you for staying away!


Iam reporting this post.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:17 pm 
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The real question is will your top 2 picks be better than anyone else.

Spiegs took Arian Foster and won the league with Peyton Manning as a 2nd round pick while I had Aaron R and got back some $$$ but not the big $$$ speigs got.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:17 pm 
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Mr.Pickles wrote:
bigfan wrote:
Fuck you for staying away!


Iam reporting this post.


And we have the report, thank you.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:25 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
The real question is will your top 2 picks be better than anyone else.

Spiegs took Arian Foster and won the league with Peyton Manning as a 2nd round pick while I had Aaron R and got back some $$$ but not the big $$$ speigs got.


People put way too much stock in their first or second round picks, like they are Bill Tobin or something. You don't have to reach for the stars you need to get value, as in solid point producers.

Now this advice is for a standard Yahoo league.

For your first round pick, take a QB, Aaron Rodgers if hes on the board. Rodgers is a much safer pick than Vick. Your second round pick should be the most consistant point producer at any other position other than QB. If it was me, I would hit WR or TE. Truth be told, last year I stocked up on teams posession receiver, Welker, S.Smith NYG, and it a standard Yahoo league, receptions are almost as good as TD's.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:55 pm 
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Keeping Score wrote:
Did bigfan already prune the Pickles Football League thread? :lol:


No, we repackaged it so idiots like you can understand it better.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:56 pm 
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Mr.Pickles wrote:
[
Rodgers is rock solid every year. A premium RB would be a total waste in the first round when you could take someone, like say James Starks, GB's starter late in the draft and get first round value.

Vick is the popular choice to be the first QB taken, and thats absurd. Vick can produce Madden like numbers, but to count on him playing all 16 games would be cutting your own throat with a Bic pen. Vick is not even in my top 5 and barely in my top ten.


Let's not go crazy w/James Starks. He scored all of 10 pts last year and didn't show that much. I agree he has some upside but he's not much more than a sleeper.

And everyone is not saying Vick is the #1 QB. Some people are saying he's the #1 QB and a lot are saying he's #5. Kinda depends on how you view risk. He's not a 1st round pick for me. I doubt I get him in any league but if he was there in the 3rd round...... Who else do you have in front of Vick?

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 1:00 pm 
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DAC wrote:
Mr.Pickles wrote:
[
Rodgers is rock solid every year. A premium RB would be a total waste in the first round when you could take someone, like say James Starks, GB's starter late in the draft and get first round value.

Vick is the popular choice to be the first QB taken, and thats absurd. Vick can produce Madden like numbers, but to count on him playing all 16 games would be cutting your own throat with a Bic pen. Vick is not even in my top 5 and barely in my top ten.


Let's not go crazy w/James Starks. He scored all of 10 pts last year and didn't show that much. I agree he has some upside but he's not much more than a sleeper.

And everyone is not saying Vick is the #1 QB. Some people are saying he's the #1 QB and a lot are saying he's #5. Kinda depends on how you view risk. He's not a 1st round pick for me. I doubt I get him in any league but if he was there in the 3rd round...... Who else do you have in front of Vick?


Starks will put up first round value numbers this year.

Rodgers
Manning
Brees
Brady
Rivers
Roethlesburger
Ryan

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:45 pm 
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Quote:
Rodgers is rock solid every year. A premium RB would be a total waste in the first round when you could take someone, like say James Starks, GB's starter late in the draft and get first round value.

Vick is the popular choice to be the first QB taken, and thats absurd. Vick can produce Madden like numbers, but to count on him playing all 16 games would be cutting your own throat with a Bic pen. Vick is not even in my top 5 and barely in my top ten.



James Starks isn't even GB's starter.
Are you saying that you're counting on Ryan Grant to put up such invaluable numbers or become injured?
Isn't that your argument against Michael Vick?


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:16 pm 
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I missed this but I completely agree with Mr. Pickles line of thinking. There is a major drop off after top tier QB's. The same can't be said for RB's. In fact since LT's reign the top RB in the draft hasn't been the best fantasy player. With more teams using a 2 back system it makes the RB a position you can wait a round or two on. In fact you would get more value taking the best QB and WR and getting some 2nd tier RB's in later rounds.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:19 pm 
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Bad bad bad. Foolish indeed.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:24 pm 
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Good news is it's worked for me in the past (taking a QB first). Of course my roster rarely looks the same at the end of the year but the strategy is solid. Give me the best QB in the league any year and I'll find a way to win a championship.

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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
In the grand SCEME (not scope, Dumbass) pf things

Awesome.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:31 pm 
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all about preference.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:32 pm 
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Chris_in_joliet wrote:
all about preference.


You're right. None of it is fool proof. The best way to win is stay active after the draft.

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spanky wrote:
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In the grand SCEME (not scope, Dumbass) pf things

Awesome.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:39 pm 
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HOVA wrote:
Chris_in_joliet wrote:
all about preference.


You're right. None of it is fool proof. The best way to win is stay active after the draft.


Vick, Hillis, Brandon Lloyd,Stevie Johnson were all undrafted studs last year.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:45 pm 
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No way Steve Johnson could have had a good year last year since he played for the Bills and we all know the Bills have had horrible QBs.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:57 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
No way Steve Johnson could have had a good year last year since he played for the Bills and we all know the Bills have had horrible QBs.


It really is a miracle. Of course a few big games padded the stats.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:56 pm 
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HOVA wrote:
The best way to win is stay active after the draft.


bingo. draft night is fun, but this is how you win a league. for the record, i generally attack RB's and WR's early and often, and take QB's later. it is a preference thing, you can win either way, this way works for me so i usually stay with it.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:18 pm 
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HOVA wrote:
I missed this but I completely agree with Mr. Pickles line of thinking. There is a major drop off after top tier QB's. The same can't be said for RB's. In fact since LT's reign the top RB in the draft hasn't been the best fantasy player. With more teams using a 2 back system it makes the RB a position you can wait a round or two on. In fact you would get more value taking the best QB and WR and getting some 2nd tier RB's in later rounds.

Truth to that, but it depends on where you are picking in the first round. If you can get a RB on a single RB team that will put up numbers with one of the first few picks of the draft, you definitely have to do that. But if you are picking 9th in a 12 man league, then I think it would be wise to adjust to the modern era and start looking at QB and WR. The key is to start runs at positions and not end them. If you pick 9th, and 7 of the first picks are at RB, that means you have an opportunity to get a defacto cream of the class at QB or WR, or else take a good but meh RB. You'll get a good or meh RB coming back to you at pick 16 anyway, so don't focus on it there. You also need to know what other people are looking for and what the relative demand is at any position -- don't just keep track of your own team, you need to keep track of all the other teams. This can especially save you if you are drafting in the middle position -- see what people need before the serpentine comes back to you and often that can help guide your pick.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:24 pm 
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The first few rounds are easy. Its hard to make a bad pick in the first few rounds. Fantasy Football championships are won by team owners who draft smart in the later rounds, & know how to work the waiver wire to acquire players. The draft is over rated. Championships are won based on the moves you make after the draft is over & the season starts.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:57 pm 
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My problem is that I get there early and start firing up the drinks. I am shitfaced by the mid rounds and busting balls on everyone. I wake up the next day with a team that looks like it was put together by Jerry Angelo.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:02 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
My problem is that I get there early and start firing up the drinks. I am shitfaced by the mid rounds and busting balls on everyone. I wake up the next day with a team that looks like it was put together by Jerry Angelo.

Yeah this is my problem. We did an auction in my league for the first time this year and it was nuts but alot of fun. I like my team now but we will see how it goes once they start playing for real.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:14 pm 
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I don't get many nights for myself and I probably value them more than the monetary value of a championship. There was talk about "entertainment" being provided by last year's winner so I might as well just hand my money over and not even bother drafting. It's great to be in a league with single guys who can take the fall for providing the fun.

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